Reality check?

[x2rider]

Hi Folks

Interesting article to say the least. Is the next big drop going to be the mother of them all??

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/dec202006.html

Cheers martin

 

[YChromozome]

Re: Reality check ?????

Sorry, just got all engrossed in families and love over Christmas, I almost forgot what Christmas is all about - keeping the economy going. I've been down and told Santa what I wish for Christmas a week or two ago

I'm one of those that think the economy, consumer spending and debt levels are no longer sustainable.

 

[kgee]

Re: Reality check ?????

I didn't realise the federal reserve was not a government agency. Maybe the world is run by a dozen men smoking cigars in some secret hideaway

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Reality check ?????

Hi Folks

Interesting article to say the least. Is the next big drop going to be the mother of them all??

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/dec202006.html

Cheers martin

1920-1940 is Replicated by 1990-2010

Oh really? Thanks for that. I didn't realise I wasn't employed at the moment.

Money seems to have less value each day.

Who says?

Inflation while not of the hyper-variety is trending in that direction.

So it is obviously being replicated isn't it? Clearly.

There is a very wide disparity between a handful of very rich people and the poor with a vanishing middle class. This is common before major market corrections.

No. This is an ongoing long term trend as pointed out by Stiglitz, that is not altered by market corrections. It may even become worse after major market events if anything.

Trade wars and tariffs are on the table. These threats are uttered almost daily.

Unlike the 20s, protectionism is not rampant.

Business ethics have collapsed in the past few crazy years destroying entire companies and wrecking others with misplaced trading ideas. Enron and a few early hedge fund failures are evidence. Those boys managing that $6 Billion natural gas fund debacle were just all re-hired by Goldman Sachs to have another go. Others are Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the still hidden Farm Home Loan operations. The list goes on and on.

And the point of that is? Heidegger was re-appointed at Freiburg after WWII, but did national socialism make a return in Universities?

Then, we have the forever war in Iraq which appears to have degenerated into a worsened civil war threatening to destabilize the entire Middle East with Iranian and terrorist aggression. Crude oil will be used as a major weapon. Do not believe otherwise.

Oh, so I'm sure you came to these marvelous insights by just "believing" someone else?

Today in 2006, our fellow colleagues and analysts have kept predicting the tip-over top and it keeps extending! This was the big story before the 1930’s major league event.

No. Your premise was that the events between 1920 and 1940, are being replayed between 1990 and 2010. So really, why aren't we in depression 1936 times?

Oh! The Poverty of Historicism he cried!!!

 

[Kauri]

Re: Reality check ?????

Same bloke, over a year back... one day he will nail it..

[size=+2]Trader Tracks Trading Alert[/size]

[size=-1]Roger Wiegand
September 15, 2005[/size]

We have previously alerted our readers to the potential of a large stock market selling event. It is our opinion the time is very close. We have worked extensively to re-check several indicators and most all of them are aligning for major stock market selling session(s).

As you know, we forecast a Dow low of 8450 by December 1, 2005. For this to occur from today's price this means a decline of nearly 2,000 points. We think most of our readers have protected themselves from this event using a variety of precautionary tools. However, this kind of selling is bound to take down some precious metals stocks temporarily with the mainstream investments. You all know the tools of prevention. Tighten stops, take profits if you have some strong positions and buy more gold and silver stock option calls if and when those PM stock prices sell off in a drop.

In our opinion, the Dow selling will be steady and orderly with smaller selling days at the beginning. We now believe the first substantial down day could be this Friday 9-16-05. If on this date we see a drop of at least 150 Dow points to the close, expect heavier selling on the following Monday and especially Tuesday, September 20. Previous Dow selling periods tended toward selling chunks of 400 points. There is no real rule of thumb on this that was just history. The Exchange has circuit breakers built in to prevent a major cascade and runaway market. They simply will not let this happen. However, when circuit breakers are lifted sellers can hit the market again until they are stopped again.

Here are the reasons for our sending this alert: Oil has bottomed and is rising again. Gold had mild selling and recovered. Today gold prices were rising in the after hours markets. The U.S. Dollar is weak and getting weaker. Next we see .8500 support for the dollar. The Transportation Index fell apart and is a major dow selling indicator when it sells. Retailing reports came in very weak. Some retail forecasters are already forecasting a weak Christmas sales event. Housing has a huge head and shoulders top and three major housing indicators all went negative. Bonds are looking weak and the very large health care sector sold off today. The pros are buying OEX PUTS with both hands.

We won't elaborate on the rest as the list is too long and contains more of the same trends. Take the time to review all of your investments and think about what could happen to them in a large Dow selling market. We do not expect a panic nor any bank runs but believe a great deal of stock market value is going to disappear very quickly. Be careful and protect yourself.

 

[theasxgorilla]

This is the problem with trying to predict markets. Eventually you're going to be right, but in the meantime...

Take Robert Pretcher for example (Elliott Wave "guru"). His estimation of wave counts led him to believe that the bull run in shares which led to the '87 crash was the 5th of the 5th. As a consequence he refused to be invested in equities right the way through the 90's and into the new millenium.

How does one say exactly, "oops, I f&*ked up and missed the greated bull run in history"?

 

[krisbarry]

Nothing in the market is predictable, and just when you think you have it all nutted out, then the opposite happens. That said...

This bull run will come to an end some day, but not today, tomorrow or even next year. Hopefully we see at least another 10 years of this stella run. Sure there will be months/ or even years of volatility, but in the longer term the market always goes up.

I am beginning to worry less about my financial future as I believe Australia is well placed to capture some pretty imprssive years ahead. All my money is tied up in Australian shares.

I want to be filthy rich... and given the same opportuntites that the baby boomers have had riding the property market.

Don't spoil my fun here....no doomsdayers!

 

[theasxgorilla]

Nothing in the market is predictable...

This bull run will come to an end some day, but not today, tomorrow or even next year.

Was that a prediction?

 

[krisbarry]

yes and no...What I want and what I get are 2 different things.

 

[2020hindsight]

yes and no...What I want and what I get are 2 different things.

Hey, STC, dont say things like that - say "once in a while along the way, what i want and what i get have been the same"
you're spoiling my fun here (and Im a baby boomer)

It's a sad state of affairs when man can't outwit or second guess a stupid bludy bull (or bear for that matter)

 

[caleb2003]

Rich dad poor dad bloke reckons its the baby boomers retiring from around 2008 that will help collapse the markets and lead us into the 70 year cycle of a depression

 

[YChromozome]

Or they could all just take out reverse mortgages and pump that money into the economy to keep it afloat.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Or they could all just take out reverse mortgages and pump that money into the economy to keep it afloat.

Precisely. It's something to be aware of, and perhaps you can plan strategically for it, but it hasn't happened yet. All we know is that a big chunk of the population is expected to get older. How the consequences of this will manifest economically is yet to be determined.

Perhaps the 'boomers' slow down their consumption and hold onto their wealth. Lock it up in assets that don't produce like big houses. Then maybe we will need a "wealth tax" like they have in some European countries to make sure that each year a percentage of that wealth is redistributed back to where is can benefit society.

 

[Julia]

Rich dad poor dad bloke reckons its the baby boomers retiring from around 2008 that will help collapse the markets and lead us into the 70 year cycle of a depression

Can't see how this can be a valid comment.
The baby boomers are already starting to retire. They will continue to do so over many years. It's not as if every person considered a baby boomer is going to suddenly retire.
And when they do, they are still going to be investing to create an income for themselves.

Julia