Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RAU - Republic Gold

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Caliente said:
you'd better believe that when a small cap goes ballistic there will be DT P&D activity. This is where the money is made.

As an investor I make my money by holding through the swells, although a clear case can be made for the DT activity as well, the daily swing on this one today has been quite incredible to watch.
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I published a chart on RAU yesterday and clearly it has broken out of a basing pattern on hi volume. I am sure there are going to be many "feints" where large parcels of stock flow into the market. I am not so sure this is a typical "pump and dump" because of the fundamentals.

RAU has a very heavily mineralized tungsten prospect about 10 x 20 kms and about 20 kms West of Vital's Watershed tungsten mine development. This area contains Wharumbal ( 1,300m x 1,100m) along with four other surface expressions of tungsten and moly mineralization that all carry much higher surface grades than did Watershed. In total Wharumbal looks to be about four times larger than Watershed (my spec deduction) AND the RAU target zones run along about 15 kms of mineralized shear heavily laced with tungsten.

IMHO the fact that RAU is capped at about $15,000,000 which is only 20% of the cap of VML makes it a very attractive punt. Throw in the Mt Carbine option and discount the 500,000 ozs of au and a 3-4 cent SP looks awfully undervalued

So IMHO there is a very viable reason why RAU is now heading North.
 
The last two days of trading activity saw about 220,000,000 shares change hands. The turnover rate has gone stratospheric. Notwithstanding the comments about pump and dump the technicals are superb. The RAU chart that follows is a 2 year odessey of misery with a three month W bottom and breakout on heavy volume. I have superimposed a 100 day moving average which we have very clearly penerated on massive volume, pullback and lunge forward (which also barely modestly penetrated the 200 MA).

The point of the long term chart is merely to illustrate the reason why there is such a heavy "churn rate" on the breakout. Very long suffering shareholders recently had a chance to "average down" at 1.3 cents plus one oppy for each two shares. At yesterday's late day pricing they got 3.5 cents for each share + 2 cents for each oppy. For a recent investment of 1.3 cents the total return was 4.5 cents or 345%.

IMHO we might continue at the current rate of rise until resistance at 5 is broken and an assault on 8 cents is launched. This is entirely possible in the short term althou i doubt we can get above 8 in the very short term.

This view is entirely consistent with targets from the W pointing to +6 cents. Fundamentally 8 puts at a market cap of $33,680,000 which is entirely consistent with decent results from tungsten/moly? assays coming from Whumbal, more news on Mt Carbine and gold drilling and puts us into the bottom tier of the better tungsten explorers i.e VML at $75,000,000.

Good luck to all longs
 

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Anyone else in on this little runner....Doing well today, :eek:

Good movement in the last 1/2hr so perhaps one to watch if not in yet.

SevenFX
 
yes - as my previous posts would indicate, quite heavily in and also doubled my exposure on the dip on Friday.

hope ur in SevenFX, havent seen you on the boards in a while, hope all is going well!
 
Caliente said:
yes - as my previous posts would indicate, quite heavily in and also doubled my exposure on the dip on Friday.

hope ur in SevenFX, havent seen you on the boards in a while, hope all is going well!
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Well Done Caliente.

I'm only recently in and just in profit, but I like it based on speckie.

Have been around, with few passive investments, but not so active on boards...

Hope the markets have been good to U2.

Cheers
SevenFX
 
SevenFX said:
Well Done Caliente.

I'm only recently in and just in profit, but I like it based on speckie.

Have been around, with few passive investments, but not so active on boards...

Hope the markets have been good to U2.

Cheers
SevenFX
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Yes,welcome back SevenFX. RAU looks very strong today, up over 10% on turnover of over 20 million shares.
DYOR
 
greggy said:
Yes,welcome back SevenFX. RAU looks very strong today, up over 10% on turnover of over 20 million shares.
DYOR
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I should also welcome you back 2 Greggy, as per your last message...????

Got an Iron in CUL as well, but tis havin a breather for 2day.
 
greggy said:
Yes,welcome back SevenFX. RAU looks very strong today, up over 10% on turnover of over 20 million shares.
DYOR
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Technically RAU has broken out and up on a daily chart from a very short consolidation patern.

I have printed a 10 day hourly chart that focusses in on the constant accumulation and bullish breakouts to the upside that have been underway during this short period. The moving average is 15 days and clearly indicates the direction of the trend. This is a momentum traders picnic.

The bullish pattern may be indicate that very good news is coming on Whumbal and Mt Carbine. IMHO there is potential for RAU to run to 6-8 and then into the teens if news is positive.

The oppies offer excellent leverage at 2.2-2.3 for a major move.
 

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SevenFX said:
I should also welcome you back 2 Greggy, as per your last message...????

Got an Iron in CUL as well, but tis havin a breather for 2day.
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Yes, my father did have his 3rd stroke a few weeks back, a very serious one involving bleeding of the brain, but hopefully now he's slowly on the path to recovery. RAU looks very solid chartwise, SevenFX.
DYOR
 
greggy said:
Yes, my father did have his 3rd stroke a few weeks back, a very serious one involving bleeding of the brain, but hopefully now he's slowly on the path to recovery. RAU looks very solid chartwise, SevenFX.
DYOR
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Sorry to hear that Greggy, and hope he's well looked after.

Maybe not a strong close at this stage, though will def hold for while.
 
SevenFX said:
Sorry to hear that Greggy, and hope he's well looked after.

Maybe not a strong close at this stage, though will def hold for while.
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Thanks SevenFX. RAU has drifted back a bit from its day high. Still RAU seems to be one of the daytraders' favourites at present.
DYOR
 
greggy said:
Thanks SevenFX. RAU has drifted back a bit from its day high. Still RAU seems to be one of the daytraders' favourites at present.
DYOR
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RAU has now run to 4.3 on hi volume and confirmed a major breakout from the W basing formation. Much higher targets now look increasingly attainable. The oppies are up 35% this morning to 3 cents indicating very bullish interest.
 
To-day's ASX report indicates that RAU has located a very substantial tungsten anomaly that is 3,500 meters long and open in all directions. The richer core zone (my speculative interpretation) is that the surface expression is about twice the size of VML's Watershed deposit of 22,000,000 tonnes of WO3 @ .25% and that the surface expression of Whumbal carries higher grades.

IMHO RAU now has a very substantial upside potential based on this mornings report.
 
Hi Sydney - I have to say that I disagree with you there. The report is promising yes, but the fact that they are still "searching" for a drilling rig doesn't fill me with confidence.

My gut feeling has made me come temporarily out of RAU - I will wait for things to settle. Still believe in Mt. Carbine and Whumbal, just want to be on the sidelines for a few days/weeks till I can reassess the situation. If I have to pay a cent more for re-entry so be it...
 
Hi Caliente,

I think that in the current climate with every man and his dog sinking holes in the ground, decent suitable rigs are at a premium (even groundwater ones! all the cockies are sinking new holes for water!)

If you look at say GDY and LNC and no doubt lots of others, they have gone to the extent of buying their own rigs so they can proceed at their own pace with their own configuration and protocol. The demand side for this type of equipment is through the roof and supply is not going to keep pace...so in the areas of interest, it may be that bigger fish are keeping rigs more than busy and any company (driller or not) is going to put the deep pocket clients first.

On the conspiracy theory side, maybe the majors are keeping rigs busy to hang the prospectors out to dry...then swoop for a takeover.. :D

p.s that last bits a joke :) google "rig shortage" on the australian google and at least the first 5 returns are directly topical...I see that at least there are forecasts of shortages until at least 2011...which is probably when the forecaster put his pen down and said..."I'm off to start a drilling company"...lol
 
Caliente said:
Hi Sydney - I have to say that I disagree with you there. The report is promising yes, but the fact that they are still "searching" for a drilling rig doesn't fill me with confidence.

My gut feeling has made me come temporarily out of RAU - I will wait for things to settle. Still believe in Mt. Carbine and Whumbal, just want to be on the sidelines for a few days/weeks till I can reassess the situation. If I have to pay a cent more for re-entry so be it...
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This tungsten project is developing on a much larger scale than was originally proposed. Whumbal West was identified as a tungsten target in May of this year. The surface exploration program over the last few months doubled the size of the surface target zone AND yesterday's report clearly indicates that West Whumbal is increasing in size in all directions which inclues the identification of a richer northerly extension where the strongest surface assays run and are "open".

Three new structures also have been identified within 7 kms of Whumbal, one of which carries moly values. It is obvious that RAU are pressing ahead with an active surface sampling program on ALL of these structures and their extensions AND all of this work has occurred within a period of about 12 weeks. I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that the next round of sampling on the North Extension of Whumbal is imminent and that the other areas are being sampled at this moment. My feeling is that an expidited and meaningful drilling program could get underway by the end of the current quarter.

The technical chart data looks extremely positive. U must remember that at 4 cents RAU market cap is $16.8 million which is a low cap for the potential of the targets now identified. U could easily double the market cap and still have a very reasonable valuation in light of all the news that is on the table. This excludes any spec appeal in the negotiations to secure Mt Carbine, the gold assets and u project in SA.
 
Anyone else having trouble playing the brr link above...

Running IE7 & MP10

Damm... I gotto write some more in here...

Cheers
SevenFX
 
looks like some large buyers lining up again for RAU, with the US futures looking positive after massive earnings from Apple, RAU likes to run on a positive day, so expect some late buying today in anticipation of a strong run in the morning
 
just finished listening to the boardroom radio interview with RAU, with a few very interesting points raised.

-They have an extensive database compiled by BHP for their NQ tennements
-Already have substantial Gold resources
-Some of the recent Tungsten readings were off the chart they were that high.
-Interesting to note how the price of Tungsten has risen 6 fold in the last five years
-And finally the most important thing they are expecting a new set of assay results within a week from an area that is very prospective for tin/tungsten/molybdenum. If they have any decent samples in this next set of assay results it could certainly drive this one higher.


I don't know about you guys but with the recent surge in interest in the spec. mining sector it maybe worth putting a few dollars into RAU.

I think I will grab a stake tomorrow in the hope the upcoming sampling assays will drive this one higher.

This is another one that will have plenty of news going forward with both extensive drilling/sampling programs.

Also the results of the due dillegence on the Mt Carbine Tungsten project which could be a real company maker for RAU.
 
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