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Ok. Good luck!
Rate my portfolio
- Thread starter Tysonboss1
- Start date
Ok. Good luck!
Low cost coal miner with massive cash balance due to sale of asset (New Saraji) to BHP. Cash is to be returned to shareholders this year fully franked - hence large variation in DPS for 2009. Owns a bit of AOE which I also hold and expect to do well.
After the dividend in Nov 2009 cash balance will remain at $2.30 per share ($1.1 billion) according to management. This is one stock that will not need to go to its shareholders for extra money; indeed it will be cashed up ready for further acquisitions in a stressed market.
AOE shares are valued at about $0.30 per share. Add that to the $2.30 cash balance at end of 2009 and you get $2.60 per share. So the remainder of the share price (today at about $3.40) is about $0.80 derived from its coal business. Looking at forecast EPS for 2010-11 say about $0.20 - so that's a PE of about 4 (ie a share price of $0.80 and EPS of $0.20).
The thermal coal is from a mid-low-cost long life mine. Exports via a NHC owned port in Brisbane. NHC mines about 4.5Mt of coal at about US$30 per tonne including royalties, compared to about US$50 per tonne industry average and say US$60 per tonne average price in the next few years. Some minor production comes from older legacy mines near Toowoomba which can be rehabilitated and the land sold for commercial development.
Main shareholders Soul Pattinson (61%) Mitsubishi Materials (11%) and Perpetual (7%).
I bought it mainly for the possibility that it will gain from asset acquisition and, to a lesser extent, property redevelopment, without being a drain on shareholders. After dividend paid out in Nov 09 I expect price to drop but not by nearly as much as the dividend payment, as it will become obvious that the PE ratio is quite low.
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World class ambiguity right here.
Great companies with great management.
Warren's been tricking you.
They're are plenty of good companies with great management ... FLT, WOW, SOL, CAB, PTM, etc. etc.
You're probably a speculator though and don't pay attention to that kind of stuff.
Prawn, I can't really be stuffed reading more about inflation so I'll stick with the government figure.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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Prawn, I can't really be stuffed reading more about inflation so I'll stick with the government figure.
Just remember the gov only tells you what they think you want to hear...
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Not true. I pay plenty of attention, but it gets under my skin when I hear people preaching the "good companies with great management" line because they heard Buffett say it. It's a completely ambiguous concept that really means nothing.
As for your picks-- I bought WOW at 11.80 when I was 16 and I still like it long term. CAB is cheap but to me it's long run prospects look poor. And I think Flight Centre is toast - the whole concept of using a travel agent as an intermediary will become redundant.
prawn_86
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*Off Topic*
I totally disagree with this. Recent figures from IBISWorld state that 85% of travel is still booked through an agent.
Sure its easy to book a domestic flight online, but when your looking international, with transfers, several flights, tours, accomodation etc etc its much easier to get a travel agent to book it then spend the time yourself doing it.
Perhaps we should take this to the FLT thread...
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LOL i think BNB , CNP, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc were once viewed as solid companys with great management too .LOL gotta love ppl insulting other ppls thoughts on what they think is an ideal investment
blessem
blessem
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Prawn -- Don't forget there was resistance to online sales for domestic flights too.
It's exceptionally easy to do all of the things you're talking about using sites like Kayak, Expedia, Orbitz etc...
When you book a flight, hotel, etc through a travel agent, they look up flights on a system which is identical to the sites I listed above.
Intermediaries like Flight Centre were able to collect 'rent' in the olden' days because the search costs involved with travel information was high. This isn't the case anymore because of the internet and price comparison search engines. This means pricing becomes more competitive and causes margins to continue to shrink over time. This same process has already occurred in the insurance industry.
As online commerce continues to mature FLT will end up going the way of the VCR... (Speaking of which, I think 'video' stores like Blockbuster will end up suffering the same fate. It's already happening in the States with Netflix.)
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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I took it as meaning bricks and mortar travel agents are toast not online one's
WTF for the win....booking it all your self is very easy now and very rewarding
in a personal way.
I'm in the early stages of planning a 3 week euro trip...and u start Googling, and
just find these amazing little places.
prawn_86
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I took it as meaning bricks and mortar travel agents are toast not online one's
WTF for the win....booking it all your self is very easy now and very rewarding
in a personal way.
I'm in the early stages of planning a 3 week euro trip...and u start Googling, and
just find these amazing little places.
From personal experinces, the average Joe doesnt want to bother booking themselves. They would rather go to an agent, for their once yearly holiday and say "I want to go here and do some tours. You organise it."
Obviously the more seasoned travellers can do it themselves online etc, but the vast majority still dont. Also, its a lot more time efficient to get an agent to look through all the flights etc than do it yourself. EG - my travel agent can assue me the cheapest price all i have to do is call, as opposed to spending X hours myself.
SC, why dont you check out my travel forum in my sig
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
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I took it as meaning bricks and mortar travel agents are toast not online one's
WTF for the win....booking it all your self is very easy now and very rewarding
in a personal way.
I'm in the early stages of planning a 3 week euro trip...and u start Googling, and
just find these amazing little places.
Hmm, have to disagree. By that logic - bricks and mortar retailers will be closing too; never going to happen. Would bet everything on it.
People like to hold things, people like to flick through brochures, and sit and talk with a real person face-to-face when planning a trip! Some folk like lots of responsibility, others do not. When it comes to travel, I would opt for a personal agent any day. That way, should anything go wrong - hello insurance, and or lawsuit
Why people want to be so self-reliant in everything these days is beyond me. If I'm sick, I'll go to a doctor, not post a question on Yahoo. If I'm going to travel, I'll see an professional, not some website located in Zimbabwe booking 1 star motels
:
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Yeh, agree with Nyden and Prawn.
Think it's already been prooven anyways, remember the dotcom bubble?
:bricks1:
Same concept.
Think it's already been prooven anyways, remember the dotcom bubble?
:bricks1:
Same concept.
So_Cynical
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I guess im not the average Joe...booked my last 4 trips myself including
transfers, multiple hotels, ferry's & country's all cheaper than through an
agent..in some cases much much cheaper.
Online and Travel just go so well togeather...its not like u walk out of a travel
agents with a heap of stuff...its tickets and an itinerary...e tickets and online
seat allocation is the way to go.
Agents tend to sell u whats easy and average - popular....for example try
getting an agent to book u something on Malapascua Island.
i just don't get why people want McDonald's holidays?
Attachments
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MRC,
The dot com bubble was just rampant speculation about the possibilities of online commerce without any real understanding of what it would entail.
The concept in the 90's was about a decade ahead of what consumers were willing to accept.
The realities are that it will not replace brick and mortar stores all together, but it is going to capture a significant market share of many 'homogenous' products and can do so operating at far lower margins.
I've been in the States for 6 months now and it is already taking hold over here as a mainstream way to shop.
Nyden -- while many would agree with you, most aren't willing to pay a premium for the privilege. Remember when the petrol station attendant used to fill your car up for you ? Or think about online banking.
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Yep, fair points Julius.
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dont forget
FTL has a website where you can go online and book everything to your hearts content you dont have to go into the shopfront anyway....
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Hey joe...much discussion on this in the Flight Center thread.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1214&highlight=flt&page=8
You'll be surprised by what u cannot book online through Flight center.
Mate, only just over two months have gone by and;
NAB > 20%
ANZ > 35%
WBC > 35%
CBA > 45%
We will keep an eye on the yields but don’t be surprised if they end up over 10%.
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I could have come into this thread at the start of March and asked how they were going also.
You keep those banks in your bottom drawer and we will see how they go.
Why is MQG not there and what about SUN?
Talk about a stupid time to post again to try and proove a point about long-term investment in bank divs.
We are about to make the end of this rally IMO, so keep your eye on the ball or take some cash off the table or you may just be counting your chickens before they have hatched, unless you have MQG, then they probably just won't hatch!
I could have come into this thread at the start of March and asked how they were going also.
You keep those banks in your bottom drawer and we will see how they go.
Why is MQG not there and what about SUN?
Talk about a stupid time to post again to try and proove a point about long-term investment in bank divs.
We are about to make the end of this rally IMO, so keep your eye on the ball or take some cash off the table or you may just be counting your chickens before they have hatched, unless you have MQG, then they probably just won't hatch!
Coming back at the beginning of march would not have helped your cause as they were up from our Jan 23 buy date discussion.
I will be keeping them in the bottom draw thanks as I enjoy the divs with that yield and that was the plan.
It was always about the big 4 as they are the ones I invested in-not interested in the others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MRC & Co
Howso? Higher divs which are hardly safe, diminished further by your capital loss?
PPI out today, much much higher than expected (in relation to the CPI responses).
With what came across as such a forthright and know all comment you were just asking for it.