Pull ya DAX up!

[>Apocalypto<]

last night easy, 20 pts less in a minute.

tonight, harder slog got out with 15pts after being up then down then up down and finally up and out.

 

[Boggo]

Doing ok here on 15 minute

 

[subterfuge]

Nah, turns out I'm too stupid for trading.

I admire your honesty
I'm pretty sure that i'm just not intelligent enough either.
I've been losing (live and demo) for about 5 years now! I've kind of given up on the dream of ever becoming profitable, but I still doubt i'll ever completely quit. Probably suffering commitment bias! (I've spent too much money and time to give up now!)

I went through a spell of believing that it was actually impossible. Everyone is an expert in hindsight but nobody is able to prove it in real time.
That is until I came across someone on skype some time back who changed my opinion!
He traded the ES and killed it everyday for the best part of a year before my very eyes. Small 2 point stops. Targets of around 5-10 points. Ridiculous hit rate!
I now know that it's possible, but I have no idea how he done it. I know that he used charts, but I also got the distinct impression that he relied on something else. I don't think it was anything to do with the DOM etc. I'm not really sure what's left, though! lol

Anyway, good luck!

 

[tech/a]

Sam
From the little exchange we have had
I can see your getting tangled up trying
To trade noise.
Start with daily see if you can get direction right
In that timeframe

Then drop to 15 min
Get profitable on sim there.
Then no lower than 5 min.

Each timeframe leads to the next.
You'll see what I mean as you spend more time at it.

Trade sim no pressure with cash.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Sam
From the little exchange we have had
I can see your getting tangled up trying
To trade noise.
Start with daily see if you can get direction right
In that timeframe

Then drop to 15 min
Get profitable on sim there.
Then no lower than 5 min.

Each timeframe leads to the next.
You'll see what I mean as you spend more time at it.

Trade sim no pressure with cash.

Yeah noise gets me, especially on cash open when it chops and churns like mad, seem to do okay in other times of the day, so been trying to not play any trades during the first few minutes of cash open to avoid my inevitable hole-digging that I always do.

Have also been printing off each days sessions 3m charts(enough to see the whole day on one page for printing) and putting them in different categories, seems to be a LOT of morning reversal days, particularly within an hour either side of the cash open seems to be when the day's big move can often get underway. Other than that it seems to be range days are common where it tends to break the previous swing high or low just by a little bit then back into the range, like it catches people out breaking out then pops back into its previous range, rinse and repeat.

But all still just trying to make observations, and trying to determine the best way to trade them.

When watching the market live I have 3m, 15m and daily open.

I replay days back, I'm printing days off, I'm watching/trading it live on sim. No doubt it's all wrong, but I'm buggered if I know what else I'm supposed to be doing.

 

[VSntchr]

I replay days back, I'm printing days off, I'm watching/trading it live on sim. No doubt it's all wrong, but I'm buggered if I know what else I'm supposed to be doing.

Sam, one thing that I have been doing is making use of Evernote. It saves me having to physically print charts as I just save them individually as files and then drag/drop them into Evernote and write up my trade reviews/chart notes in there. The functionality of Evernote is quite extensive and I've found searching for previous notes pretty simple. Not a plug for Evernote (I only use the free version), I am sure there is plenty of similar software out there - just what I have found to work well.

With all that said, I understand some people have a certain method and find that physical notes are more useful to them.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Sam, one thing that I have been doing is making use of Evernote. It saves me having to physically print charts as I just save them individually as files and then drag/drop them into Evernote and write up my trade reviews/chart notes in there. The functionality of Evernote is quite extensive and I've found searching for previous notes pretty simple. Not a plug for Evernote (I only use the free version), I am sure there is plenty of similar software out there - just what I have found to work well.

With all that said, I understand some people have a certain method and find that physical notes are more useful to them.

Yeah have thought about it, and used to use OneNote(I think that's what it's called) but I think it helps me more actually printing it out and putting in all in one folder, plus I had the folder sitting there so might as well use it

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

+21.5 ticks on DAX
+0.15c on CL

For tonight.

Lord give me patience, NOW

 

[minwa]

Sam
From the little exchange we have had
I can see your getting tangled up trying
To trade noise.
Start with daily see if you can get direction right
In that timeframe

Then drop to 15 min
Get profitable on sim there.
Then no lower than 5 min.

Each timeframe leads to the next.
You'll see what I mean as you spend more time at it.

Trade sim no pressure with cash.

Great advice I agree - start on the daily. Ask yourself where price is reaching for - liquidity/orders. Then trade with a bias towards that direction intraday.

seems to be a LOT of morning reversal days, particularly within an hour either side of the cash open seems to be when the day's big move can often get underway. Other than that it seems to be range days are common where it tends to break the previous swing high or low just by a little bit then back into the range, like it catches people out breaking out then pops back into its previous range, rinse and repeat.

Never looked a intraday DAX chart before but on the Spoos (S&P) usually in the first hour after equity open I'll wait for a fake move that take the market lower and then bottoms/reverses for a strong up move into lunchtime - morning trend. (same for reverse - rallies higher for a downswing.)

Is there different indices for the German market ? I watch the Nasdaq/Dow Industrials/S&Ps & when one diverges is my signal. Also different days of the week matter to me in the US market - since you're already sorting them may as well sort them into day of week and see if you can spot any patterns.

 

[minwa]

The trade today.. Strong selloff off the open - triggering stops protecting longs & sell stops of breakout/momentum traders. Big boys absorb the liquidity & accumulate longs at discount - Nasdaq unwilling to go lower <- they tip their hand. Up swing into 11.30-12pm - this is the morning trend. Which contract was stronger - Nasdaq - rallying 0.9% vs 0.8% in the Dow/S&P. Yes it ended up with a down day but nevertheless you can catch the morning trend. Also note it's the same fractal pattern on a bigger timeframe - market taken slightly higher first to go lower (imagine/google those wyckoff/weinstein accumulation/distribution patterns).

Hope it gives you some ideas - check to see if it works with the DAX.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Great advice I agree - start on the daily. Ask yourself where price is reaching for - liquidity/orders. Then trade with a bias towards that direction intraday.



Never looked a intraday DAX chart before but on the Spoos (S&P) usually in the first hour after equity open I'll wait for a fake move that take the market lower and then bottoms/reverses for a strong up move into lunchtime - morning trend. (same for reverse - rallies higher for a downswing.)

Is there different indices for the German market ? I watch the Nasdaq/Dow Industrials/S&Ps & when one diverges is my signal. Also different days of the week matter to me in the US market - since you're already sorting them may as well sort them into day of week and see if you can spot any patterns.

Yeah good idea printing out the days, I should go back and write through on all the charts what day's they were, probably are some patterns over the course of the week. Yeah there is the Eurostoxx(FESX) which is like a European ES. Problem is I'm running out of real estate to watch everything

The trade today.. Strong selloff off the open - triggering stops protecting longs & sell stops of breakout/momentum traders. Big boys absorb the liquidity & accumulate longs at discount - Nasdaq unwilling to go lower <- they tip their hand. Up swing into 11.30-12pm - this is the morning trend. Which contract was stronger - Nasdaq - rallying 0.9% vs 0.8% in the Dow/S&P. Yes it ended up with a down day but nevertheless you can catch the morning trend. Also note it's the same fractal pattern on a bigger timeframe - market taken slightly higher first to go lower (imagine/google those wyckoff/weinstein accumulation/distribution patterns).

Hope it gives you some ideas - check to see if it works with the DAX.

Yeah definitely seems to be a theme, if it's going to turn it usually does it around cash open then something may happen again around the US cash open.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

+42 ticks on DAX
7 trades: 6 winners, 1 loser.
Trading 1 lot.

Happy with entries with quick reward, averaged 4 mins in the market instead of the usual rubbish entry, goes against me immediately then spend the next 10 minutes figuring out whether to stay in or not.

Patience paying off

Done for tonight.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

+80 ticks on DAX.

Okay but considering that it's dropped almost 300 points, I probably should have gotten more out of it, but amazingly most of my trades were actually longs, fader much?

Actually called it early on too that it seemed like a downtrend day(in my head, but didn't act on it).

Turned out to be what I would say qualifies as a downtrend day...



But instead of shorting and following my gut instinct I fight and fade instead . Ah well it's easy in hindsight I suppose

Now in true DAX form when I wake up in the early hours of the morning it's likely to have completely reversed and closed back above 10,000

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

+80 ticks on DAX.

Okay but considering that it's dropped almost 300 points, I probably should have gotten more out of it, but amazingly most of my trades were actually longs, fader much?

Actually called it early on too that it seemed like a downtrend day(in my head, but didn't act on it).

Turned out to be what I would say qualifies as a downtrend day...

View attachment 64405

But instead of shorting and following my gut instinct I fight and fade instead . Ah well it's easy in hindsight I suppose

Now in true DAX form when I wake up in the early hours of the morning it's likely to have completely reversed and closed back above 10,000

Whoops been reading NT wrong, so double my stats as far as up or down ticks, turns out NT shows points profit not ticks, so its actually +160 ticks for today as the DAX moves in 0.5 increments, 2000EUR anyway, wasn't adding up for a bit there!

 

[Modest]

Smack dat dax up

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Smack dat dax up

I should have taken action on my suspicion of it going to be a trend day, could have done much better Unsure if there are any patterns leading up in the prior days that hint we might be having a trend day soon.

Might do some stats on if we have a range of 100/200/300 points what the average % change is the next day, or might be better doing it as closing up or down 300 points rather than range as that would imply a trending day.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Okay so I think I have sussed out what happens on average when we have Xpt(ticks) trend days, both up and down days.

So there's 100pts, 200pts, 300pts and 400pts(not many occurrences) days that I've done.

DT - Down Trend
UT - Up Trend
avg - average
med - median

In case it's not obvious enough :

All calculated on < or > basis, not <= or >=.

So taking the 300pt one, it seems to me that when we have a 300pt down trend day the average NEXT day percent change is +1.21%, so a strong down trend day is on average responded to with a 1% up day, and vice versa for up trend days.

I did this on daily data back to 1997 but obviously in the early years, days this big weren't very common at all, so it gets more regular around the 2000's onward.



My brain needs a rest now...

 

[skc]

Okay so I think I have sussed out what happens on average when we have Xpt(ticks) trend days, both up and down days.

So there's 100pts, 200pts, 300pts and 400pts(not many occurrences) days that I've done.

Thanks for sharing.

You should consider using % rather than 300 pts. Back in 1997 the Dax was around 3000 level so a 300 pt drop would have been pretty crazy. With change to % you'd get quite a few more data points to improve your analysis.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Thanks for sharing.

You should consider using % rather than 300 pts. Back in 1997 the Dax was around 3000 level so a 300 pt drop would have been pretty crazy. With change to % you'd get quite a few more data points to improve your analysis.

Yeah true, thought that while I was doing this lot it's the more recent years that matter anyway as it was barely doing anything in 1997, but will get onto it to see how how much it changes my findings

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

+140 ticks on DAX.
6 trades.

Getting a nervous feeling now, doing well this early, the fear of giving back