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ThingyMajiggy

ThingyMajiggy

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DAX Trading thread, ready set go!

So far tonight has been really nice to read on the order flow tonight, one of those "obvious" days, pity they aren't all like this, currently not trading, just watching. Trying to get a sim login(another one, about my 5000th haha) so I can continue having a go while I save up for my real account.

Be good to get some volume interpretation going on in here too on this chart by the experts.

Turns out there's not any one thing that is the key(except maybe realising this?), it really is dynamic, ebbs and flows, combinations of things that line up, and context is massively important, including how the day/week has panned out, at least that's how I'm understanding it, then jump on once it gets in that mood with oompf behind it and manage downside like a demon? Am I on the money?

Also knowing that feeling, when you've seen something before and you recognise it straight away....and take action.

orderflow.png
 
ThingyMajiggy: I'd like to help by offering some suggestions, but I'm a bit reluctant as you've posted twice as many as I have. :rolleyes:

Every day is "obvious" with hindsight. You don't need any volume interpretation from the "experts".
As for the rest, blah, blah, blah...(insert a "wake up!" smilie). :twak:

Look at the chart you posted. Do you see any patterns that you recognise? Can you recognise them as they form? Can you accurately describe them so that anyone can find them in your charts?

I think it would be worth your time to describe a few patterns (or setups) and look for them in every session you watch/record. You don't need very many, just a few easily identifiable setups that you know you can use to create profits. For example:

One reversal or fade strategy that you like to use at marked support/resistance levels (or Prev Days H/L).

tech/a: has already suggested one of his fav's; the high volume reversal setup.

Check your chart. What happened to price after the two highest volume bars? Could you have placed a sell stop under the low of the bar in a few seconds. Was there enough price movement to create a profit? I think yes. The 1st one a small profit. The 2nd one a good profit. Write a description so you can identify them. Record them in a spreadsheet. Collect 20 of them and then consider if this setup is worth mastering.

One break-out setup: You know what a BO is. Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.

One trend continuation setup (like a pullback for example). Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.

If you really study the charts you'll notice that certain setups happen at certain levels. Describe them, record them ... etc. Slowly collect your own intra-day playbook of profitable setups.
 
peter2 said:
ThingyMajiggy: I'd like to help by offering some suggestions, but I'm a bit reluctant as you've posted twice as many as I have. :rolleyes:

Every day is "obvious" with hindsight. You don't need any volume interpretation from the "experts".
As for the rest, blah, blah, blah...(insert a "wake up!" smilie). :twak:

Look at the chart you posted. Do you see any patterns that you recognise? Can you recognise them as they form? Can you accurately describe them so that anyone can find them in your charts?

I think it would be worth your time to describe a few patterns (or setups) and look for them in every session you watch/record. You don't need very many, just a few easily identifiable setups that you know you can use to create profits. For example:

One reversal or fade strategy that you like to use at marked support/resistance levels (or Prev Days H/L).

tech/a: has already suggested one of his fav's; the high volume reversal setup.

Check your chart. What happened to price after the two highest volume bars? Could you have placed a sell stop under the low of the bar in a few seconds. Was there enough price movement to create a profit? I think yes. The 1st one a small profit. The 2nd one a good profit. Write a description so you can identify them. Record them in a spreadsheet. Collect 20 of them and then consider if this setup is worth mastering.

One break-out setup: You know what a BO is. Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.

One trend continuation setup (like a pullback for example). Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.

If you really study the charts you'll notice that certain setups happen at certain levels. Describe them, record them ... etc. Slowly collect your own intra-day playbook of profitable setups.
Click to expand...

Cheers for the tips peter, that chart wasn't hindsight observations, I was watching it live and it's a little hard to post on a forum live thoughts on order flow, I just made that chart up to show the points I was seeing these things is all :)

High volume fades still have the same problem, yes looking at that chart now it's easy to see the spots to fade, but as I've said before, watching it live is a lot harder as you don't know what the "large" volume is, often there are groups of large volume bars where the next bar totally blitzes the previous bar's volume and I get totally ripped to shreds trying to fade these large volume bars, that's talking just the bar and volume as an entry, could work better with other factors included I guess(RSI etc?)
 
Got a sim account set up to trade.

-E2,212.50 tonight. Was just wrong on everything I did, tried fading, tried RSI, tried order flow, tried bounces off MA, nothing worked, no idea what I'm doing. Will keep going. I know one thing, where the bar/candle closes means absolutely nothing it seems. Plus overtrading.
 
Good start Sam
It's worth th effort.
Just watch the trading un fold and let your
Brain just watch the action.
It will take time but you'll start to see
Patterns and price action that can be shaped into a trading plan.
 
tech/a said:
Good start Sam
It's worth th effort.
Just watch the trading un fold and let your
Brain just watch the action.
It will take time but you'll start to see
Patterns and price action that can be shaped into a trading plan.
Click to expand...

How is 2000 euros in the red a good start? :(

Will do, playing on market replays now trying to make sense of something and find something that feels right and comfortable for me.
 
ThingyMajiggy said:
How is 2000 euros in the red a good start? :(

Will do, playing on market replays now trying to make sense of something and find something that feels right and comfortable for me.
Click to expand...

(1) You traded---most don't even have a go.
(2) Its not 4000 Euro's

Put it in perspective its 80 ticks
 
Okay, serviced and washed my car so back to having more goes on sim with market replay in NT. Using a 3 minute chart now to try and stem my overtrading BS. +39.50 ticks(987.50EUR).

Still got carried away and lost sight of the bigger picture I think, can see my trades where I cluster them together there, had no idea in there, everything I thought would happen didn't, or it swept back up/down immediately and the "sign" of strength or weakness was the total opposite and I got stopped out. It was like oh a break lower, weakness, I'll try a short on the re-test, enter short, nope goes straight back up into where it just broke out from, so okay I'll try a long then, nope, straight back down to where I was and stops me out again, long, short, long short, stopped a million times.

Pro's:

- Not as many trades
- Good entries and exit's on the good trades(especially first trade)
- Better patience

Cons:

- Had a stupid phase again where I was focused on each individual bar
- Death of a thousand cuts.
- Last good trade entry was not 100% sure of why, yet it worked out rather well.

daxsim8thaugust2015-labelled.jpg

Right, back to it, I'm going to farkin get this.
 
ThingyMajiggy said:
Right, back to it, I'm going to farkin get this.
Click to expand...


Lol ....Hey Sam .... firstly, what a great Thread name! Seriously one of the best named threads on ASF:xyxthumbs

Secondly, I'm not here to give you ANY advice ...... but encouragement I can give:)

I am possibly in a similar boat to you (mine may have a faulty bilge pump though:)) where I believe i am often close to finding a "plan" that works ... but then it doesn't.... but then it does again, so I am often brilliant; then not so brilliant all in the space of a few hours!:eek: ...

I love trading; then I hate it (even though I still really love it:rolleyes:) ... until I screw up really badly with some of my bad habits (e.g. over trading to play catch up because the trade I closed out an hour ago would now be in profit, so I chase all night on the wrong side of the curve because I deserve to be in profit !! ... mmmm )

Anyway you get the drift ..... you are not alone with your frustrations ... but at least you have the common sense to keep "simming" it until it makes sense ... unlike some of us who like to forward test everything with real money simply because it teaches us more when its "real" :eek:

One small "not advice" advice (not directed at you, but perhaps anyone trying to find their edge) .... try to become more pro-active rather than re-active to price action ...... If your Entry is taken when the "Chart looks good" ... its often likely either too late, or at best, you are about to take some heat (depending on the time frame being traded of course)

Its Saturday night and I'm just ranting a bit, but I'm sure your documented experiences will be appreciated by many here on ASF so carry on ... and good luck!

Cheers.
 
barney said:
Lol ....Hey Sam .... firstly, what a great Thread name! Seriously one of the best named threads on ASF:xyxthumbs

Secondly, I'm not here to give you ANY advice ...... but encouragement I can give

I am possibly in a similar boat to you (mine may have a faulty bilge pump though:)) where I believe i am often close to finding a "plan" that works ... but then it doesn't.... but then it does again, so I am often brilliant; then not so brilliant all in the space of a few hours! ...

I love trading; then I hate it (even though I still really love it ... until I screw up really badly with some of my bad habits (e.g. over trading to play catch up because the trade I closed out an hour ago would now be in profit, so I chase all night on the wrong side of the curve because I deserve to be in profit !! ... mmmm )

Anyway you get the drift ..... you are not alone with your frustrations ... but at least you have the common sense to keep "simming" it until it makes sense ... unlike some of us who like to forward test everything with real money simply because it teaches us more when its "real"

One small "not advice" advice (not directed at you, but perhaps anyone trying to find their edge) .... try to become more pro-active rather than re-active to price action ...... If your Entry is taken when the "Chart looks good" ... its often likely either too late, or at best, you are about to take some heat (depending on the time frame being traded of course)

Its Saturday night and I'm just ranting a bit, but I'm sure your documented experiences will be appreciated by many here on ASF so carry on ... and good luck!

Cheers.
Click to expand...

Haha thanks! I thought the title fit in more ways than one :D

Ahh yes I know the feeling! For me at least I think it's uncertainty, I'm trying to get to the stage where I know things will work in the long run, rather than just having a stab and hoping from things I've read or been told etc. but that is all just screen time I think, hence why I'm trying to find a stable setup I feel comfortable with and knuckling down into some 10x speed sim sessions :D

Thanks for the rant, wondered if anyone was watching/reading this dribble in here, it's more for me to sort my crap out and do this properly really.
 
barney said:
... unlike some of us who like to forward test everything with real money simply because it teaches us more when its "real" :eek:
....
Click to expand...
+1
I prefer live forward testing for similar reasons.

However, on those occasions that I've chosen to trial something particularly novel, I've taken the precaution of forward testing on a demo/sim prior to investment of actual funds.

...I'm sure your documented experiences will be appreciated by many here on ASF so carry on ... and good luck!
...
Click to expand...
+1

ThingyMajiggy said:
Got a sim account set up to trade.

-E2,212.50 tonight. Was just wrong on everything I did, tried fading, tried RSI, tried order flow, tried bounces off MA, nothing worked, no idea what I'm doing...
Click to expand...
I believe I can readily identify the major spanner in the works here. It's called the "DAX" !

If ever there were an index that thoroughly deserved a four letter acronym beginning with "C", it is this one!

It can be a total FTSEing !@#$ of a thing to trade!

After my last financial year of trading it, I'm seriously tempted to start a thread entitled "Dropping ma DAX".

However, please don't let me dissuade you.
...Will keep going...
Click to expand...
Glad to hear it!

Modest said:
All time spent at the coalface is time well spent. :2twocents
Click to expand...

+1
tech/a said:
(1) You traded---most don't even have a go.
(2) Its not 4000 Euro's

Put it in perspective its 80 ticks
Click to expand...
+1
 
Sam it may not surprise you that I disagree with all of the above. To be really getting any sort of long term benefit from practice it has to be very precise. Just sitting in front of a screen and banging out trades may be of benefit for a total newbie but you are not that. You have seen a market day play out more than most. You need to move on from that approach.

Have a look at the other thread you started and read what those that are struggling did. They just did "stuff". Lots of different stuff but nothing with razor sharp focus.

They never became a specialist in anything. But they spent large parts of their life trying to crack the code, all different codes! It's just not going to work. You will never lay down the skill path ways in your brain by doing something different every 5 min. Deliberate practice is doing the same thing 100 times until you master it then moving to the next small skill. Its painful and boring as bat **** but thats the difference between the people who make it work at any cost and those that just do lots of stuff because they have a "passion for trading".

You have to gather 100s of days that you can label as different types of setups. Like,

Monday morning gaps
Gap up
Gap down
Trend down days
Trend up days
Morning reversals
Chopping range days
Big news ann
Etc etc

The more specific the better. Then practice until you know what you are doing before moving onto the next pattern.

It's time to stop spending your time at the coal face with all the other miners hoping to strike it rich. Time there just leaves you dirty.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Sam it may not surprise you that I disagree with all of the above. To be really getting any sort of long term benefit from practice it has to be very precise. Just sitting in front of a screen and banging out trades may be of benefit for a total newbie but you are not that. You have seen a market day play out more than most. You need to move on from that approach.

Have a look at the other thread you started and read what those that are struggling did. They just did "stuff". Lots of different stuff but nothing with razor sharp focus.

They never became a specialist in anything. But they spent large parts of their life trying to crack the code, all different codes! It's just not going to work. You will never lay down the skill path ways in your brain by doing something different every 5 min. Deliberate practice is doing the same thing 100 times until you master it then moving to the next small skill. Its painful and boring as bat **** but thats the difference between the people who make it work at any cost and those that just do lots of stuff because they have a "passion for trading".

You have to gather 100s of days that you can label as different types of setups. Like,

Monday morning gaps
Gap up
Gap down
Trend down days
Trend up days
Morning reversals
Chopping range days
Big news ann
Etc etc

The more specific the better. Then practice until you know what you are doing before moving onto the next pattern.

It's time to stop spending your time at the coal face with all the other miners hoping to strike it rich. Time there just leaves you dirty.
Click to expand...

Don't worry I disagree with it too, it's driving me mental, doesn't get me anywhere so I'm glad you said all the above. I just didn't/don't know what does get me onto the next level, so I'm all ears!

You mean printing days off and labeling them and putting all the same patterns together and then what, see if/how they reacted the same, or if there's patterns in what times of the day it turns type stuff? How can I practice that though? Particularly for market replay stuff, the market replay data I'm using JUST shows the session I'm replaying, I can't see what it did yesterday or last week etc.
 
I think TH is talking about compiling a playbook, yes?

An example of one of my plays is a short covering rally after a big sell off range extension. The sessions after the big range extension may rotate around in a new range. I don't expect another big move right away, but you can play the range. Then you can prepare yourself for a short covering rally or another range extension to the down side, depending on the bigger picture and the context....

Another one, news days. Quite often the best moves in a big news announcement are against the recent trend as trapper traders run for cover. NFP is like this and sets up well in the bonds and the Bund.

Just a couple of examples off the top of my head.

CanOz
 
Another thing to keep in mind here too Sam, vol has dropped off significantly since the Greece resolution and the start of summer doldrums....

Plays developed now may no work later, plays developed prior may not work as well now....:2twocents

As a reference, the VX
 

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Trembling Hand said:
Why not?

https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt7/?market_replay.htm
Click to expand...

Because it's Ninja? It seems to barely work for whatever I want it to do.

It literally doesn't show up...

JUST the session I'm replaying.

I'm using a market replay downloader, the replay data isn't my own(haven't been using NT to watch the live market), so I think it's something to do with that somehow, I've downloaded the entire Sep contract and can only view each individual session, doesn't load it all up.

nohistory.jpg
 
CanOz said:
I think TH is talking about compiling a playbook, yes?
CanOz
Click to expand...

Yeah I know what he means, my question is how do I do that? Especially when I can only view one session at a time with no history, and back to my question....

Do I print out say 5 min charts and put all the ones that look the same(morning reversal, gap down, up, trend days) together and somehow that makes me profitable? Because replaying single day's back and farting around with stupid indicators/volume/S&R clearly isn't the way forward.
 
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