PTM - Platinum Asset Management

[So_Cynical]

Depth looking horrible this morning, I wouldnt be suprised if PTM goes below 4.20 at some stage today.

Ive felt that this has been over valued for quite a while. It is starting to get to a more enticing price level though.

PTM does have quite a bit of key person risk IMO, with Kerr Nielson. With that being said, while he remains he provides the company with a good competitive advantage. He has been referred to as an Australian equivalent of Buffet..to the extend this is true I'm not sure, but he sure is good.

Held above 4.30 today so that's a good sign....Mr Neilson is 61 years old so must be at least thinking about spending a lot more time on a beach somewhere, nah i bet he's not the type :nono: probably a workaholic that plans to sick around well into his 70's.

As if anyone could go wrong investing with Australia's only fair dinkum Billionaire stock picker.

 

[VSntchr]

Yeah I was completely wrong on the fall yesterday...good thing my investing focus is long term right :

Yeah, I agree..definitely Australia's best so a good move...probably at a good entry point now...just have to weigh up my options as there are a few things competing for my valuable funds!

 

[oxygen]

FUM is as low as it has been since September. Could explain the current price slide.

 

[So_Cynical]

PTM fell thru $4 today and so my 3.95 buy order got filled (second and last average down) ~ happy to get cheap PTM shares and sad the SP isn't holding to well...the PTM funds have significant short positions so unlike so many other funds the PTM funds do have some positives from all this market weakness.

Platinum's listed fund PMC was 15% short individual shares and index's at June 3

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110607/pdf/41z306l33k6nw3.pdf

 

[kermit345]

PTM are almost at my valuation level and worthy of a buy. It hasn't traded below its valuation in the last 2 years according to my model and is very near doing so now.

Platinum are a very good manager through the tough time and not quite so good when things are doing better as evidence by their returns in the last 12 months. However their long term returns when looking at their underlying flagship fund (Platinum International Fund) is extraordinary over the long-term.

As superannuation accounts continue to have contributions going in which have to be directed somewhere, platinum will get a slice, particularly if they continue their long-term results. This will continual the increase in FUM along with the returns they make, essentially creating a double up effect for increasing FUM and hence, fees.

Thats why at these levels, when they are almost starting to trade at a discount to valuation, Platinum are looking like a great buy.

 

[oldblue]

But why would you want to buy them now when the SP is still in a deep downtrend?

I like PTM too but think I'll wait for that trend to reverse.

 

[Noddy]

PTM are almost at my valuation level and worthy of a buy. It hasn't traded below its valuation in the last 2 years according to my model and is very near doing so now.

Platinum are a very good manager through the tough time and not quite so good when things are doing better as evidence by their returns in the last 12 months. However their long term returns when looking at their underlying flagship fund (Platinum International Fund) is extraordinary over the long-term.

As superannuation accounts continue to have contributions going in which have to be directed somewhere, platinum will get a slice, particularly if they continue their long-term results. This will continual the increase in FUM along with the returns they make, essentially creating a double up effect for increasing FUM and hence, fees.

Thats why at these levels, when they are almost starting to trade at a discount to valuation, Platinum are looking like a great buy.

Hi Kermit,

Have a valuation for PTM for2011/12 of $2.90.
Estimated EPS around 25c for 2011/12 with minimal growth of around 5%, which is only treading water.
Book value 40c , ROE around 60%.

The stock is fairly illiquid, and seems to mainly rely on the expertise of one man to run it.
Very little demand for the stock at present, but does pay a respectable dividend due to a high payout level of over 90%.

I don't see the stock as a buy at this stage.

Perhaps I'm missing something ?

 

[McLovin]

I get a value of about $4.05 for 2010 and $4.30 for 2011. I'd like to have at least a 20% MOS though before I bought in, so realistically I'd prefer it below $3.50, assuming they hit their target for this year.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Hi Kermit,

Have a valuation for PTM for2011/12 of $2.90.
Estimated EPS around 25c for 2011/12 with minimal growth of around 5%, which is only treading water.
Book value 40c , ROE around 60%.

The stock is fairly illiquid, and seems to mainly rely on the expertise of one man to run it.
Very little demand for the stock at present, but does pay a respectable dividend due to a high payout level of over 90%.

I don't see the stock as a buy at this stage.

Perhaps I'm missing something ?

No I agree too expensive at the moment but worth watching.

 

[kermit345]

Noddy/McLovin,

While I said its looking like a great buy I probably wasn't clear enough. My IV's are current of around $3.80 and forecast of about $4.20. What I meant to say was as the share price is approaching these values it brings Platinum back closer to being a buying opportunity as it has traded above intrinsic value for the past 2 years by my calculations.

Not saying it is a screaming buy right now, but should the share price continue to diminish down to maybe $3.50/$3.60 as McLovin suggested, I think it would be close to the top of my buy list.

Portfolio Management succession does become an issue though, however hopefully they are training an analyst to fill the shoes if/when it does occur in the future.

 

[So_Cynical]

My 2 year old PTM trade came into profit (very small) today for the first time in 11 months....the last 3 months or so has really seen the SP turn around very strongly, a significant up trend.

My 3 average downs and particularly my last one at 3.62 in December (not posted) really turned this around for me, here's hoping the SP can break 4.50 in the next few weeks and i can close this puppy, however i do remember saying simiar in this forum somewhere a while ago...
~

 

[Mr Wilson]

Is PTM still on anyone's raider?

I have been watching this stock for the past 6 month's and for me it just keep's on getting better and better,

I'm just waiting for it to hit the bottom of the barrel before I invest,

It has been fluctuating between $3.5 and $3.7

Can any one see it falling below the $3.5 mark?

I am new to all this and the more variables I know the better prepared I will be for the future.

Thank you in advance for your insights

 

[So_Cynical]

I've been stuck in this trade for almost 3 years today's 4.1% rise was a continuation of the remarkable turn around in price and sentiment that started in Sept 2012, all 4 of my parcels are now in profit something i have waited a long time to see, often doubting that i would see it so soon after the bottom.

The stock market can be so crazy, just beyond sense sometimes..you just never know...the Euro and US debt cans have been kicked down the road with no real solution in view yet the markets are going crazy to the upside, or maybe it just seems crazy to me because of the crazy lows. :dunno:

3 year PTM chart below with all my entry's and the turn around....Persistence, Patience, Belief and Averaging down works again.
~

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've been stuck in this trade for almost 3 years today's 4.1% rise was a continuation of the remarkable turn around in price and sentiment that started in Aug 2012, all 4 of my parcels are now in profit something i have waited a long time to see, often doubting that i would see it so soon after the bottom.

The stock market can be so crazy, just beyond sense sometimes..you just never know...the Euro and US debt cans have been kicked down the road with no real solution in view yet the markets are going crazy to the upside...3 year PTM chart below with all my entry's and the turn around.

Persistence, Patience, Belief and Averaging down works again.
~

++++1

Similar experience.

Thankfully I haven't sold them and am in profit. About 10%.

gg

 

[So_Cynical]

Completed my PTM trade today @ $5.20 ~ its been a long time coming, way to long but that's what it takes sometimes to make a losing position a winning position...takes time and some aggressive averaging to re-position your self in the trade.

As it turns out the aggressive averaging wasn't needed in the end as all my 4 parcels were in profit, i sold my 2 most expensive parcels for trade profits of 9.36% and 17.04% leaving my remaining shares in profit to the tune of near 36%

The fund managers were always going to rally with a broader rally, i mean the fund managers own stocks that are rallying so makes sense that they would then rally, as has happened in the last 3 > 4 months...inevitable really.

To easy? can something that takes almost 3 years to achieve be called easy?

 

[prawn_86]

To easy? can something that takes almost 3 years to achieve be called easy?

What is the opportunity cost of holding for so long?

 

[So_Cynical]

What is the opportunity cost of holding for so long?

I don't think it can be realistically calculated...for sure there is some cost, it cost me something..how much ill never know.

I can say with some certainty that there would of been another stock added...but cant say with any certainty what that stock would of been and at what price.

 

[prawn_86]

I don't think it can be realistically calculated...for sure there is some cost, it cost me something..how much ill never know.

I actually do quite like your strategy but it can seem to be a long time between drinks so to speak.

How about if you had held an index fund or cash for 3 yrs what would it have returned in comparison to tyourholdings of PTM?

 

[So_Cynical]

I actually do quite like your strategy but it can seem to be a long time between drinks so to speak.

The last 17 months have been difficult and a complete contrast to the 17 months preceding the last 17 months, i went from completing a trade every 3 weeks on average to a trade every 3 months..i just got stuck in a heap of trades bought at the last top.

Very very reluctant to buy into this top...sitting on a heap of cash.

How about if you had held an index fund or cash for 3 yrs what would it have returned in comparison to tyourholdings of PTM?

Cash v PTM no contest..if i had sold out completely today i would have profits and dividends equivalent to a profit of close to 40% gross ~ with just the first (oldest) parcel that is 33 months old, i have made 123 CPS 26% gross (8.7% PA)...so even my worst investment in PTM beat cash and my best killed it.

---------------------

Now for an interesting STW comparison...STW being the State Street ASX200 tracking fund...bottom line on the chart is PTM, interestingly PTM fell much further than the index and is still somewhat under performing and because it fell further the gains have been greater, bottom to top.

The only conclusion i can come to looking at the comparison chart is...i have made a lot more money buying PTM, trade profits are greater and open profits are greater... probably slightly ahead on the dividend front too.
~

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Big pole, big flag, testing the breakout.