PSV - Perseverance Corporation
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Sean K
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Sean K
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PSV is boring me to death. Anyone else? Surely the money would be better placed on anything with U in it's name?? Anyone else holding? What's the upside from here except for POG appreciation? Exploration? I don't actually see them doing any???
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PSV has been stagnant of late but is highly favoured by the major brokers. FN Arena, which compiles a Sentiment Indicator based on the recommendations of these brokers currently rate PSV the most highly recommended gold stock and suggests a potential upside of some 47%.
Worth a thought if gold price action continues to be positive
Worth a thought if gold price action continues to be positive
First impression of PSV is that it was a high cost producer that is slowing year on year. That is why I haven't looked at PSV, however it will do very well if price of gold keeps heading north.
But yeah, just impression I have got from reading up on PSV, and they say first impressions are everything.
Slowing production in stall mines... is there any exploration upside??
Dont hold. Yet...
But yeah, just impression I have got from reading up on PSV, and they say first impressions are everything.
Slowing production in stall mines... is there any exploration upside??
Dont hold. Yet...
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gidday ken...psv got leviathan for a song...reduced their hedging problem significantly. Think their production upside may have been conveniently hidden...stategy as part of the takeoveer. Time will tell but brokers seem confident...
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A bargain or bust?
Code Bid Offer Last Change* Open High Low Volume
PSV 0.225 0.230 0.230 -0.075 0.290 0.290 0.215 13,490,056
PSV 0.225 0.230 0.230 -0.075 0.290 0.290 0.215 13,490,056
Perseverance advised today that gold production for the June 2007 Quarter will fall short of forecast as a consequence of lower than expected treated ore grades and production interruptions due to adverse weather conditions and equipment failures during the later part of the period. The Company’s ability to respond quickly to these factors was restricted due to a lack of flexibility in production
areas at the Fosterville Gold Mine with underground development still at a relatively early stage. Production for the June Quarter is expected to be approximately 42,000 ounces.
As a consequence of the production shortfall together with a weakening Australian dollar gold price and continuing cost pressures which are impacting the whole industry, the Company’s financial position has been adversely impacted.
Based upon current mine plans, which limit underground production to lower grade stopes over the next few months, it is expected that the Company’s cash position will remain under pressure during the September 2007 Quarter. The Company anticipates this situation to improve as the year progresses when better grade ore positions are targeted for access. Non essential expenditure will be deferred
until cash flows improve.
The Company is working with its advisors to address these issues and evaluate its strategic options.
As a consequence of the production shortfall together with a weakening Australian dollar gold price and continuing cost pressures which are impacting the whole industry, the Company’s financial position has been adversely impacted.
Based upon current mine plans, which limit underground production to lower grade stopes over the next few months, it is expected that the Company’s cash position will remain under pressure during the September 2007 Quarter. The Company anticipates this situation to improve as the year progresses when better grade ore positions are targeted for access. Non essential expenditure will be deferred
until cash flows improve.
The Company is working with its advisors to address these issues and evaluate its strategic options.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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And to think i closed short the other week
Those poor suckers that bought the other day.
Cheers,
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Merril's were plugging PSV today. See below. The cashflow problems are a worry though. Would like to see that turn aroundf before making any decision. However they spent $150m on the mine plus infrastructutre so there must be gold. That or its the next Bendigo...
'Perseverance Corporation Ltd. - Andrew Richards
Tough times for PSV | Price Objective Change | Buy- Production downgrade
- PSV announced gold production in the June quarter will be 42koz which is well below March quarter of 51koz. We have downgraded 4Q07 production to 42koz (from 51koz) split 16koz at Fosterville 26koz from Stawell. We have downgraded FY08 production to 200koz from 221koz. FY07 loss is now $7.7m (down from $0.6m) and FY08 NPAT reduced to $2.6m (down from $19m). Our 12 month forward NAV has reduced from 35cps to 30cps.
- Disappointing news but PSV is no Bendigo
- Unlike Bendigo Gold which had grade issues resulting in the closure of that operation, PSV has been hit by a series of labour and equipment issues. Grades were slightly lower than expected at Stawell however 26koz production is still a very solid result. The major reason for the downgrade is equipment failures and skilled labour shortages. Skilled labour is difficult to source at present. The vent fan at Stawell has been replaced and the grinding circuit at Fosterville is expected to be at full capacity by August. PSV state that the Fosterville plant is working well. Looking ahead we expect production of 42koz 1Q08 and back to 50koz per quarter rates in 2Q08 as higher grade material is accessed at both operations.
- Maintain our Buy
- PSV is evaluating all strategic options which we believe includes equity raisings as well as M & A opportunities. We believe that PSV offers a potentially attractive future and at a market capitalisation of just A$150M PSV is cheap. Note that the Fosterville plant was constructed at a cost of over A$100M and equipment and infrastructure could add at least another A$50M value. On that basis PSV's 1Moz reserves and 2.8Moz resources has no value. It is an opportune time in our view for a predator to step in. PSV is trading at a 30% discount to our NAV, EV/Reserve oz of US$134. Our price target is 45cps (down from 53cps). '
'Perseverance Corporation Ltd. - Andrew Richards
Tough times for PSV | Price Objective Change | Buy- Production downgrade
- PSV announced gold production in the June quarter will be 42koz which is well below March quarter of 51koz. We have downgraded 4Q07 production to 42koz (from 51koz) split 16koz at Fosterville 26koz from Stawell. We have downgraded FY08 production to 200koz from 221koz. FY07 loss is now $7.7m (down from $0.6m) and FY08 NPAT reduced to $2.6m (down from $19m). Our 12 month forward NAV has reduced from 35cps to 30cps.
- Disappointing news but PSV is no Bendigo
- Unlike Bendigo Gold which had grade issues resulting in the closure of that operation, PSV has been hit by a series of labour and equipment issues. Grades were slightly lower than expected at Stawell however 26koz production is still a very solid result. The major reason for the downgrade is equipment failures and skilled labour shortages. Skilled labour is difficult to source at present. The vent fan at Stawell has been replaced and the grinding circuit at Fosterville is expected to be at full capacity by August. PSV state that the Fosterville plant is working well. Looking ahead we expect production of 42koz 1Q08 and back to 50koz per quarter rates in 2Q08 as higher grade material is accessed at both operations.
- Maintain our Buy
- PSV is evaluating all strategic options which we believe includes equity raisings as well as M & A opportunities. We believe that PSV offers a potentially attractive future and at a market capitalisation of just A$150M PSV is cheap. Note that the Fosterville plant was constructed at a cost of over A$100M and equipment and infrastructure could add at least another A$50M value. On that basis PSV's 1Moz reserves and 2.8Moz resources has no value. It is an opportune time in our view for a predator to step in. PSV is trading at a 30% discount to our NAV, EV/Reserve oz of US$134. Our price target is 45cps (down from 53cps). '
3 veiws of a secret
3 veiws of a secret
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I hate to say it ....( I have not taken the time to read this thread right through) BUT Huntley's are plugging this share since geeeeee when it was errr 35 cents or 30 cents....... perhaps the clause slots in with reason when the share plummets another 10 cents to 21 cents that it just has to be a BUY. I'm not a holder of this share ,but I am very dubious at times who is talking who UP.G'Luck.
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Hey Bushman, I wouldn't right off BDG just yet, as everything is fair value to someone at some stage, or so thinks SBM. As for PSV, it would fit in with a predators plans for expansion; funny how SBM is starting to be active in this part of the world and likes distressed stocks like PSV.
The down grade itself was not that bad, it was the follow up warning about talking to advisors (creditors?) that is unusual, or are they just fulfilling 'duty of care' to the market?
The down grade itself was not that bad, it was the follow up warning about talking to advisors (creditors?) that is unusual, or are they just fulfilling 'duty of care' to the market?
I wouldn't believe everything Merril plugs! When the stock starts trading again l wouldn't be surprised if it gets below 15c. If PSV is not the next Bendigo then it is not far from it. All it might need is a white night like Santa Barbara to get the share price below 10c.
Personally l wouldn't be touching this one!!
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Not sure why such a comparison with BDG, as BDG still have some money in the kitty, unlike PSV, which appears to be the main problem.
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BDG - cash ($68m March quarter) but no current operating mine. In effect they are exploring for gold.
PSV - operating mine (42 to 50K ounces a year) but cashflow problems due to the mine not operating at full capacity while the cost base stays the same.
Comparison with BDG was more the fact that it is a Victorian mine that has been disappointing.
But as you point out uncle, a share price is the present value of its future cashflows. As such the question with PSV is can it get its mine back up to 50,000 ounces and remain cashflow positive? As for BDG, can it operate a mine that has sufficient grade to be profitable? If either is an eventuality, or if a take over is on the cards, then the share price will appreciate.
Be standing on the sidelines for the moment as there are still chapters to be written about both these stories. Some of it could earn a buck as two as well.
PSV - operating mine (42 to 50K ounces a year) but cashflow problems due to the mine not operating at full capacity while the cost base stays the same.
Comparison with BDG was more the fact that it is a Victorian mine that has been disappointing.
But as you point out uncle, a share price is the present value of its future cashflows. As such the question with PSV is can it get its mine back up to 50,000 ounces and remain cashflow positive? As for BDG, can it operate a mine that has sufficient grade to be profitable? If either is an eventuality, or if a take over is on the cards, then the share price will appreciate.
Be standing on the sidelines for the moment as there are still chapters to be written about both these stories. Some of it could earn a buck as two as well.
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see
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=990B598E-17A4-1130-F58AA6A44D8681CB
brokers value at 0.30 but have put target of 0.15 given risks now inherent
PSV is in the LST stable so likely they will front up some cash as they did for another darling cum dog story being ARX - interesting LST share price has not suffered any from PSV's fall from grace (but then it only represents about 2% of their portfolio) and well compensated by the rise and rise of IRN and HAV which are much more significant holdings.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=990B598E-17A4-1130-F58AA6A44D8681CB
brokers value at 0.30 but have put target of 0.15 given risks now inherent
PSV is in the LST stable so likely they will front up some cash as they did for another darling cum dog story being ARX - interesting LST share price has not suffered any from PSV's fall from grace (but then it only represents about 2% of their portfolio) and well compensated by the rise and rise of IRN and HAV which are much more significant holdings.
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Could be a bit overdone with the negativity now. It's hit 13.5c & rebounded to 16c. Marginal decrease in throughput was overshadowed by the company's indication that it was having trouble with short term funding, but looks like that has been solved with the placement @ 15c for $26.5m in new funding.
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Looks to me like another struggling gold company, so many of them!
BDG, BMO, ARX, GTM, CRS, Sons of Gawlia,
I hope its not hedging/forward sales issues, because if it is it'll be,
bump bump bump, another one bites the dust!
BDG, BMO, ARX, GTM, CRS, Sons of Gawlia,
I hope its not hedging/forward sales issues, because if it is it'll be,
bump bump bump, another one bites the dust!
