PRU - Perseus Mining

[Sean K]

PRU reached another all time high this morning.
my average buy in price is 1.76, so well in the money.
Am going to depart from my usual take 10 to 15% profit and sell half.
In for the the medium haul haul on this one, unless it reaches ridiculous prices .
Mick

Gee, it's been great since Sep. MC now over $3b. Is that about right for producing 500K ozpa? I think they start running down a couple of their mines in 4-5 years and will need to start planning to replace those ounces soon. Block 14 will do half of it but might need another bolt on soon unless they have a good exploration find. They could buy PDI or ORR that they could bring on in that time frame.

 

[mullokintyre]

Gee, it's been great since Sep. MC now over $3b. Is that about right for producing 500K ozpa? I think they start running down a couple of their mines in 4-5 years and will need to start planning to replace those ounces soon. Block 14 will do half of it but might need another bolt on soon unless they have a good exploration find. They could buy PDI or ORR that they could bring on in that time frame.

Happy for them to buy PDI or ORR, as I hold both.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

PRU released some extension drilling results for Youre deposit.
Nothing stand out, but it shopws the deposit just keeps going.
Knocked back a bit on price after recent highs.
Happy to hold.
Mick

 

[finicky]

The only gold stock I've seen with H1 results and an outlook like this. BtL finance on Patreon nailed it with his early praise of this company.
All the Australian based producers are putting out ratsh*t reports. St Barbara posted a loss. Silverlake's NPAT down 66% to pcp, its fy23 aisc outlook is $1950 - $2050. NST, RMS, SSR and EVN all crap. What the input costs and sustaining/development capital don't take, the wage inflation and management remuneration will. And people don't think it's shifty, the m.d of Bellevue cashing out before BGL faces these pressures.

Not Held

 

[mullokintyre]

\Interim results out show just how efficient this co is.

EPS up nearly 50%
This stock deserves to be rerated at a much higher level.
Mick

 

[DrBourse]

Hate to be the voice of Reason, but that’s why I’m being paid the Big Bucks…..

Here’s the Good and the Bad – in no particular order:- …….

PRU’s lack of Debt is probably a big reason they are only providing punters with a 1.26% Div, with No Franking, that really is ridiculous these days…… Remember, lets say that a small Debt is helping provide a LOW % Div Yield,…..Zero Debt they would also probably have a Zero Div Yield - so theoretically a bit more Productive Debt could increase that return substantially - This is where astute directors etc come to the fore - Good Financial Management will make a company greater - Bad Financial Management will send a company broke....

The recent Double Top or Triple Top (depending on your understanding of TA), along with the recent Benchmark Candle Formation, and the very Unhappy ST Indicators, and the fact that PRU now has at least 7 or 8 Resistance lines directly above the current SP, all suggest the ST Trend will be sideways or Down…..

There was one good trade to be had with an entry on 27/9/22 or 28/9/22, with the exit @ 5/12/22…..

PRU have magically drummed up some future DPS just to placate the punters…. The big Q is, Do you believe them ??......

Financials suggest ST Limited Upside…..

Technicals also suggest ST Limited Upside….

Remember these are just my personal Calculations - Please DYOR.
Cheers....
DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Hate to be the voice of Reason, but that’s why I’m being paid the Big Bucks…..

Here’s the Good and the Bad – in no particular order:- …….

PRU’s lack of Debt is probably a big reason they are only providing punters with a 1.26% Div, with No Franking, that really is ridiculous these days…… Remember, lets say that a small Debt is helping provide a LOW % Div Yield,…..Zero Debt they would also probably have a Zero Div Yield - so theoretically a bit more Productive Debt could increase that return substantially - This is where astute directors etc come to the fore - Good Financial Management will make a company greater - Bad Financial Management will send a company broke....

The recent Double Top or Triple Top (depending on your understanding of TA), along with the recent Benchmark Candle Formation, and the very Unhappy ST Indicators, and the fact that PRU now has at least 7 or 8 Resistance lines directly above the current SP, all suggest the ST Trend will be sideways or Down…..

There was one good trade to be had with an entry on 27/9/22 or 28/9/22, with the exit @ 5/12/22…..

PRU have magically drummed up some future DPS just to placate the punters…. The big Q is, Do you believe them ??......

Financials suggest ST Limited Upside…..

Technicals also suggest ST Limited Upside….
View attachment 153579
View attachment 153580
Remember these are just my personal Calculations - Please DYOR.
Cheers....
DrB.

Sorry, only posted the Data Entry side of the PRU Calculations......
The Results of the Above Data Entry are as follows....

DrB

 

[mullokintyre]

Gotta admit, I have not heard very often the the idea that having a zero debt is not a great financial management tool.
I have no complaint with your analytical skills, just the premise on which it is based.
As the cost of debt increases, I generally see companies that have low debt as being a positive.
I also don't really expect franked dividends from a gold Co, if I want franked divvies I go to banks, WES, WOW or BHP.
Mick

 

[DrBourse]

Hi mullokintyre…..

Here are a few articles on the “Little or Debt No Debt Scenarios”….. for USA Companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Mastercard, and dozens of others…… And for our ASX Companies there is ALU, ARB, CDA, and dozens of others…..

Researching some of those above sites will explain why NO DEBT is very often a good move by listed companies...
Cheers.....
DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Utopia = An ASX Co that has No Debt, and is paying a 6%+ Divvy out of Profits - Still looking

 

[mullokintyre]

Sorry Dr B, but you lost me there.
I thought from this statement

PRU’s lack of Debt is probably a big reason they are only providing punters with a 1.26% Div, with No Franking, that really is ridiculous these days…… Remember, lets say that a small Debt is helping provide a LOW % Div Yield,…..Zero Debt they would also probably have a Zero Div Yield - so theoretically a bit more Productive Debt could increase that return substantially - This is where astute directors etc come to the fore - Good Financial Management will make a company greater - Bad Financial Management will send a company broke....

You were advocating PRU should take on more debt, maybe I misunderstood what you were suggesting.
Mick

 

[DrBourse]

Sorry Dr B, but you lost me ther.
I thought from this statement

You were advocating PRU should take on more debt, maybe I misunderstood what you were suggesting.
Mick

NP - Sorry, I'll try to explain my thoughts a bit more in depth in futue

 

[mullokintyre]

I have taken PRU i the April comp.
I reckon gold will get a boost, and PRU is one of my happier gld stocks.
Or something like that.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

I have taken PRU i the April comp.
I reckon gold will get a boost, and PRU is one of my happier gld stocks.
Or something like that.
Mick

Hit another 52 week high today.
Having an internal debate as to whether to take some profits in the expectation of buying back later at a cheaper price or holding on.
Decisions decisions.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Hit another 52 week high today.
Having an internal debate as to whether to take some profits in the expectation of buying back later at a cheaper price or holding on.
Decisions decisions.
Mick

Sold out, market seems to be coming back a bit.
Happy with the profit.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

PRU quarterly out.
Makes pleasant reading.
Production same as last quarter.
Gold sale price up.
Costs down .
Actual gold sales down they sold a lot more than they produced in December quarter as prices were up after selling a lot less than they produced in September quarter.
Cash margin and cash flow both up.
Not big increases, but sure beats any decreases.
May get a kick along on the open.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

PRU quarterly out.
Makes pleasant reading.
Production same as last quarter.
Gold sale price up.
Costs down .
Actual gold sales down they sold a lot more than they produced in December quarter as prices were up after selling a lot less than they produced in September quarter.
Cash margin and cash flow both up.
Not big increases, but sure beats any decreases.
May get a kick along on the open.
Mick

Just keeping AISC down is a great effort.

Cash margin up quite a bit due to POG. Very nice.

Had a champion run the past couple of years compared to just about all others.

Not too sure about their Sudan adventure.

 

[mullokintyre]

Just keeping AISC down is a great effort.

Cash margin up quite a bit due to POG. Very nice.

Had a champion run the past couple of years compared to just about all others.

Not too sure about their Sudan adventure.

View attachment 155946

The market seemed initially unimpressed, and I had a bid at 2.32 partly filled.
Not a lot, but still a tad under the 2.36 price of my last sell.
Will leave the order for the rest open just in case.
Mick

 

[peter2]

Sold this morning to grab profits from the last price swing up. Impressive low AISC so I'll be ready to buy the dip in PRU if the POG dips.

Edit: News of the domestic unrest in Sudan is my main reason for selling just below the recent high.

 

[Sean K]

I'm hoping PRU are casting their eye over development projects with planned 250Koz pa forecast such as PDI and ORR which would be quite handy in replacing ounces for them, especially if Sudan goes pear shaped.

MD on today's results:

While organic growth may provide the best opportunities right now, Quartermaine said Perseus was looking squarely at Africa if it heads down the inorganic growth path.

“In terms of the question about West Africa, no, I think Perseus has shifted its orientation to pan-Africa,” Quartermaine said.

“And I think the concept of having a diversified asset portfolio … the value of that diversity is very evident for all to see. So we’re not going to restrict ourselves to West Africa.

“We are, however, restricting ourselves to the African continent. And our decision around acquisitions is going to be based simply on a risk-return basis.

“So if the prize is worthwhile having and there involves some slightly elevated risk then we’re prepared to make that judgment call to invest along those lines.

“Yes, we are considering M&A. It is not in West Africa specifically. However, if we have opportunities in West Africa we most certainly would be interested in investing there because we know the area fairly well and have operated there before, so have some competitive advantage in it.”