PRU - Perseus Mining

[jonojpsg]

Yes, was always going to be more capital to be raised.

Flyboy was spot on :

April:



Since then, they raised $75m @ .82c a share in May and now they're raising more money. So much for no dilution.

Crystal ball needs a tune up I think. lol

Hmm, yes an interesting development. Let's assume they issue 50m @ $1.40ish a share gives them another $70m. Basically that builds it for them doesn't it? WHat was cap cost for Ayanfuri - US$147.9m incl contingency.

So that would just about get them there and would mean that ALL revenue from Ayanfuri comes back to us shareholders. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me rather than paying fees and interest on a loan that was only going to be paid back in a year or two anyway?

On their FS figures - 230koz in year 1 @ US $392/oz

Margin @ $1000/oz = $600 x 230k = US$138m net year 1.

On the basis of current capital plus above assumed 50m = 350m shares gives
about 40c a share. On a conservative PE for junior producer with lots of upside, say 10, would imply $4 per share - same as BGF target.

Only problem with these cap raisings when the SP is moving the way it is is that the issue price is most likely going to be well below where we are currently at which may hold the SP back a bit short term.

 

[Skip1jz]

page two of the trading halt announcement refers to a capital raising................................................

Ah yes too early in the morning for me (Perth time), a lame excuse. I will engage brain before reading and posting next time.

 

[jman2007]

Interesting development to be sure

Not a move that I expected them to make in the short term. My original feeling was that the construction at Ayanfuri would be funded by a combination of debt and equity, this may still well be the case of course since we don't have any real indication just how much they're wanting to raise. I would have thought debt to be a better result for shareholders, since the payback period is relatively short for Ayanfuri.

The sp may well soften in the short term, but as always you have to crack some eggs to make an omlette, and this situation is no different.

 

[Miner]

Interesting development to be sure

Not a move that I expected them to make in the short term. My original feeling was that the construction at Ayanfuri would be funded by a combination of debt and equity, this may still well be the case of course since we don't have any real indication just how much they're wanting to raise. I would have thought debt to be a better result for shareholders, since the payback period is relatively short for Ayanfuri.

The sp may well soften in the short term, but as always you have to crack some eggs to make an omlette, and this situation is no different.

Hi Jman
You need some oil/butter (unless using a non sticking pan), pinch of salt as well for making an omlette

I hope PRU is not giving a surprise while raising capital in a way Scotgold Resources just did. That will be a pathetic strategy

 

[Sean K]

Yes, I hope they use a little grease. Like some cheap shares and options for current holders, but I think they'll be leaning towards Canadian 'sophisticates' to gain more interest in the mythical TSX listing. It's obviously a very difficult task to list on the TSX. Geesh.

I too thought there'd be minimal further capital raised for development and thought half equity and capital. But not another raising. That's what the last one was for right? To pave the way for financing for development. Out of left field, maybe they're going to put some funds together to take over another explorer? Focus really should be getting Ayanfuri into production to start making money while POGs going ok.

Lets hope this raising is not too dilutionary. Since the stock has run quite hard recently, I doubt it will be close to the current price. Fingers crossed.

 

[jman2007]

Recent talk by Mark Calderwood for those interested, I thought it was a very good one:

http://www.brr.com.au/event/61594/emerging-gold-producer

I found these comments from Mark very interesting:

2005-2010: 15 new gold mines coming online in West Africa averaging 200Koz pa in production.

PRU drilling meters 2007-2010:
2007: 100km
2008: 170km
2009: Between 100 and 170km
2010: >200km planned

4Moz in Reserves at Ayanfuri by the end of 2010 more than likely. Banks are also aggressively pursuing the Ayanfuri project. Payback period for Ayanfuri at $US 950/oz one year 3 months.

Sissingue could be 11-15km long? At this stage, Resource calculated for only 1km of strike. But needs a lot of drilling.

Enjoy.

 

[Stagman]

Huh? Tantrum? Oh my dear, once again you display your lack of objectivity.

Once again, your emotion shines through and displays your clouded judgement and reveals your true motives to the spectators. I'm sure you made great coffee for your supervisor of the sanitation section when working in M&A when you probably recieved a few free shares from the company according to how many stools you sampled.

This really is amusing. I am a holder and want PRU to go to the moon, but to post criticising someone for being overly bullish must put things into perspective, I hope.

flyboy, glad I don't have to read your BS again. It will mean that others reading this thread will see fact, instead of your posts...

How do you get away with such a filthy, disgusting and offensive attack on another poster without being moderated?

I can't believe that you have the audacity to suggest that other posters keep their emotions in check because it's obvious that you certainly can't.


Stagman

 

[oldblue]

Have to agree, Stagman.

It seems that retired moderators are allowed a bit more lattitude than most other mere mortals.

 

[jman2007]

C'mon guys

We're all friends here, let's just play the ball and not the man. Verbal jousting happens on some threads from time to time. The trick is to not take it personally, we all want the same thing here - a successful PRU mining gold.

Peace

 

[Miner]

How do you get away with such a filthy, disgusting and offensive attack on another poster without being moderated?

I can't believe that you have the audacity to suggest that other posters keep their emotions in check because it's obvious that you certainly can't.


Stagman

Mate Stagman

Can you please revert back to PRU and start making more money

If you want to make personal issues with Kennas or any one else just use PM and please please let us not wash our dirty linens in public.

We all have different preference,styles, mindset but we are all professionals and let us not make this site for personal issues.

Let us hope PRU news on Monday becomes healthirer for existing shareholders on Monday and not just sophisticated investors

Thanks

 

[TabJockey]

Whats everyone oppinion on the capital raising plans?

To my eye they look reasonable, but my finance is sort of basic.

 

[Miner]

As it was feared PRU came with the bad news to raise fund only from chosen mates of BGF Equity.
Beauty of this plan is it does raise the fund but tells the existing shareholders you are a useless bunch. Under the pretext of less than 15% equity volume, they will increase the equity every time and the gap only widens. For example if you have no of equity 10,0000, 000 then to raise less than 1.5 million shares PRU does not need share holders approval. So next time the volume will be increased to 11.49 millions. They do not have to take shareholders permission for raising 1.645 millions. It goes on

The direct beneficialires are BGF and their top notch people to get decent commission out of it plus get more fund from those sophisiticated investors for their next equity raising with another company. It is all legalised money making scheme.

I can just whinge unless join the queue to become a sophisticated investor as well as a mate of BGF Equity.

Probably ASIC is a lame duck like Crime and Corruption Commission.

 

[jancha]

Hey Kennas
Whats your oppinion about more capital raising and do you personally think it's a good price to come in on at @ 1.60?

 

[jman2007]

Whats everyone oppinion on the capital raising plans?

To my eye they look reasonable, but my finance is sort of basic.

Well my finance is none too sophisticated either, but $1.50 actually seems like a pretty good outcome - yes, the price this morning has softened a little, but we're still light years ahead of where we were then the price was 50-60c ps. Once we flush the 'undecideds' out of the registry this week, and business as usual resumes, should be a pretty tightly held stock one thinks - unless POG goes off a cliff.

Not 100% sure what their cash balance will be after this, $A100M or so?.. but you would have to think the chances of another dilutionary raising would be slim, hopefully the banks will come to the party. It gives PRU a hell of a war chest for listing on the TSX.

I think kennas reminded us by comparing the MC's of Centamin, Redback, etc to that of PRU's, still definitely multi-bagger potential, PRU might even have a similar Resource base to Redback but a couple of years behind in development. Hard to argue against this kind of logic.

 

[shag]

I thought 1.50 was okish-could have been worse. sad we didn't get a look in, but i guess spp's are expensive and less reliable.

on the 'other matter', i concurr with miner and co, and appreciate the great information gleened from this and other threads(like the brr presentation above, and peoples' depliction of such), but i have noted on some threads a few ramps have started to immerge, especially as the monies have flowed back into the market again, in volume, over the last few months.

thats just my opinion tho, and hope 'enthusiastic investors' wear and endure some constructive criticism.

 

[Calliope]

I took the opportunity today to increase my stake. I think the decision to list on the Toronto exchange is a positive step. Canadian analysts are much more savvy about gold mining shares than our analysts.

 

[Sean K]

Yep miner, would be nice to get a look into these things, but it's hard when you're a retailer. And yes, good for BGF. Which broker was recently sprewking this as the best goldie in the market whose mc will go to $1b? LMAO!

I agree with jman, pretty good outcome. The stock was only trading at $1.50 a few days ago before gapping up. Looks like the old time highs around $1.60 will be tested as support, but you'd have to guess that $1.50 could be the floor at the top of the gap, and the cap raise price. That is of course, if POG doesn't correct significantly nor the market, which is on the cards. Around 5000 on the XAO is a significant resistance zone and I think traders will be selling into this region. But with the overall strength of the market and printed money possibly looking for a home, who knows.

Looks like TSX listing will be sometime 90 days after 5 Nov.

And yep, $100m in the bank once the second tranch goes through to the Canuks. Pretty handy if the market goes pear again.

Long term, still looking good, as long as the general market and POG holds up...

 

[shag]

BGF had another ramp today,
http://www.smh.com.au/business/west-africa-beckons-as-aussies-go-for-gold-20091025-henv.html
didn't anyone find it a bit vauge, like i presume mac bank grabbed a few, and handed a few around. someone i know is a 'sophisticated....punter' and gets in on these handouts directly. doesnt take much apparently, and i hope they don't have weak hands.

 

[jman2007]

Bloomberg interview with Mark Calderwood,

Discusses the upcoming TSX listing and M. Calderwood's view on where the gold price is heading, pretty interesting really, although the interviewer seemed a bit dim. At least Mark admitted that any predator would have to a significant premium to get their hands on the company, and that we wouldn't roll over without a huge fight...lol. Well he got that bit right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=ceo&T=Calderwood%20Says%20Perseus%20Plans%20Toronto%20Listing%20by%202010&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1OxHKxCI52Q.asf

 

[Sean K]

and i hope they don't have weak hands.

Let's hope so. Would be amuzing if BGF start selling shares into any strength after their rampathons recently.

Bloomberg interview with Mark Calderwood,

Discusses the upcoming TSX listing and M. Calderwood's view on where the gold price is heading, pretty interesting really, although the interviewer seemed a bit dim. At least Mark admitted that any predator would have to a significant premium to get their hands on the company, and that we wouldn't roll over without a huge fight...lol. Well he got that bit right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=ceo&T=Calderwood%20Says%20Perseus%20Plans%20Toronto%20Listing%20by%202010&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1OxHKxCI52Q.asf

Sold at 10 day VWAP, a 'fair' level.
Hopefully TSX listing before Christmas but time is running away. Sounds like next year.
Retail raising in Canada very small, just to seed turnover on TSX.
Plan to double the reserves next year. That would be VERY significant.
Q3 2011 for production start up, but lots of contingency, July 2011 should be easy for start up.
Pit designs on sub $800 gold price. Very strong as low as $650.
Gold price rise will be inflationary.
Profitability pay off in year one at current prices.
Lots of rumours floating about. Any predators would have to pay up fairly solid premiums due to long term shareholders. I'll roll over at the right price.

I've added in the total shares of this raising and the cash to the gold stock comparison spreadsheet and it pushes them up to the $65 an ounce mark, which is probably still a little low for this stage of development, but they're not as cheap as they were a few months ago down around $30-40 an ounce. That was a great opportunity in this environment. Hard to believe GRY deserve to be trading at a premium to them.