Profiting from randomness: A money management system?

[tech/a]

Frank.

Once you look back on the chain of posts and see that I was attempting to make sence for those on the thread of statements made by another poster you will realise that the "Goose" label fits Frank far better than this duck.

Originally posted by Michael All I was doing was having a stab at what i thought Michael meant.
An apology anytime would be accepted.

Read post #12

 

[Frank D]

My apologies

i'll wear the feathers.

 

[Mr J]

For those that think the market is random, please define random and why you think the market is random.

 

[Naked shorts]

"Edge" [mechanical or discretionary] would determine management of stops, size of bets etc, not the other way around IMO.

This statement is incorrect, if you know how to manage your stops this can be the defining edge of your trading system.


p.s. interesting conversation btw

 

[Mr J]

I think both statements are correct. Management affects edge, and edge affects management. If I practise scaling in, perhaps I can increase my edge. Perhaps I'll scale out because I feel my edge on that trade has become lesser.

 

[tech/a]

This statement is incorrect, if you know how to manage your stops this can be the defining edge of your trading system.


p.s. interesting conversation btw

Vote #1 N/S agree.

Frank you can borrow my suit anyday.
Slightly used.

 

[Cartman]

Sorry did I mention an exclusion to deep pocket "Everyone elses" in my EVERYONE ELSE?

So lets be clear that that includes the instos who have whole floors of analysts all coming up with models which anticipate their next buy or sell.

i'm not actually arguing with u here as such Tech ---

what i am bemused about is the notion that many punters have this pedantic perception that the market is a random piece of "pumpkin pie" --- Postulation without proof is a pain in the posterior --- and prone to peculiar projections which prohibit potential profits based on poor planning. Physical procrastination is a plight which permeates the traders potential payrate as he ponders at length the precarious permutations of such pain. (what can i say -- i'm a poet :

ie i'm interested in any punter who actually "really" believes the market is totally random AND who actually "really" trades ---- never actually really met one of those

Yes there are
Very good everyone elses.
Average everyone elses
Terrible everyone elses.

indeed yes --- but the deep pockets "everyone elses" mentioned above HAVE to pull the trigger at some point, so the anticipation phase you allude to, actually becomes a footprint for us little guys to base our "random": assumptions on

PS MrJ your post 43 was good ---- those who missed it should read it

 

[Timmy]

ie i'm interested in any punter who actually "really" believes the market is totally random AND who actually "really" trades ---- never actually really met one of those

Agree.

 

[tech/a]

If I thought the market was truely random then I wouldnt trade it.
I'm not that lucky with random.
The rest ofcourse is personal interpretation in whatever form you choose to analyse.

 

[Timmy]

If I thought the market was truely random then I wouldnt trade it.

Yep - its anything but random.

 

[mazzatelli]

This statement is incorrect, if you know how to manage your stops this can be the defining edge of your trading system.

I did not say MM does not improve a system, but suggesting it should follow predictive edge, not lead it.

 

[nunthewiser]

A five-year-old female parrot named Strawberry performed better than many human investors in a stock investment contest, organisers said on Friday.

The parrot from Papua New Guinea finished third in the six-week contest which ended on Wednesday, said Paxnet, an online stock market information provider.

Ddalgi (strawberry) competed with 10 stock investors. Each started with 60 million won ($A57,636.41) in cyber money and traded 10 million won worth of stocks in each transaction.

Human investors picked any stocks they wanted. The parrot, using its beak, made random choices from balls representing 30 blue chips including Samsung Electronics.

"The outcome of our contest was amazing. Ddalgi stood third with her investment return standing at 13.7 per cent," Paxnet general manager Chung Yeon-Dae told AFP.

Human investors averaged a 4.6 per cent loss, with only two outperforming the parrot -- one by 64.4 per cent and one by 21.4 per cent.

The human investors, who mostly chose to trade shares of small and medium-sized firms, each made an average of 190 trades over the six weeks. Organisers gave the parrot seven chances to pick shares over the same period

.

i figured this was the right thread for this

 

[Mr J]

190 trades over the six weeks

I would bet that most "investors" would be completely chewed up by commissions trying to attempt this. The contest is pretty ridiculous though, as 7 trades for parrot is a completely meaningless sample, and the 190 trades for each contest are little better.

 

[nunthewiser]

I would bet that most "investors" would be completely chewed up by commissions trying to attempt this. The contest is pretty ridiculous though, as 7 trades for parrot is a completely meaningless sample, and the 190 trades for each contest are little better.

Geeeez no need to analyze the darn bird .just admit that a parrot is a better trader/investor than 60% of the human population

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Haha

Polly beat a cracker!

 

[Archibald Head]

Hey nun.....
This is the idea of a lifetime!!!!!!!

Buy a heap of parrots. Publish the stats in a workbook fashion with examples of past trades. Call it the "featherbed" system and sell them for $6000 per parrot.......

 

[Wysiwyg]

Someone say parrots? Can`t get the damn things to choof off.

 

[weird]

My thoughts, lower time frames than that an individual is trading, from that perspective, ticker movements could be considered random to that individuals perspective, whether they are or not, however the expected max range of movement (volatility) in a defined period is perhaps less random. This can be useful in setting stops, entries, profit targets etc.

 

[brty]

Nunthe,

If this is evidence of "random", then no wonder there is no such thing....

The parrot, using its beak, made random choices from balls representing 30 blue chips including Samsung Electronics.

Were the balls identical?? Did they have some type of defining marks on them, to note the different companies?? Was the choice of those 30 made by the parrot in the first place??

Absolute meaningless garbage.

brty

 

[nunthewiser]

hahahahahahahha

oh dear ................. as you were guys