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Profiting from a fall in the Aussie Market

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CanOz said:
What is the rational behind this NAB trade?
Click to expand...

Pushing up to the gap and previous resistance with volume decreasing.

XAO a little push up which could result in another down leg soon.

Probably a low risk entry
 
FWIW, this is what I was taught to look for....Bearish continuation patterns...

I wouldn't post entries and exits prior to the trade Pav, after is fine.

CanOz
 

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CanOz said:
FWIW, this is what I was taught to look for....Bearish continuation patterns...

I wouldn't post entries and exits prior to the trade Pav, after is fine.

CanOz
Click to expand...

Ok no worries.

Yes that sort of consolidation is what I'm looking for also. Whether it's a channel or a pattern like the triangle you posted.

I didn't communicate that in the last post sorry. I won't just take a stab in the dark and short without some sort of decent setup.
 
mr. jeff said:
VERY well so far
pushing down nicely.

Banks will be next to watch for removal of stength. QBE was my favourite short.
Click to expand...

Short myself FTSE this morning.

Nice pattern Can.
 
I get allot of pattern fails on flags that are channels...but that's what i like about the patterns, they need to prove themselves before you enter.

Will post a few in another thread for US Stocks.

CanOz
 
A quick scan brought this up. Quite a few others but in a much lower price range so may not be available everywhere as a short.
 

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Boggo said:
A quick scan brought this up. Quite a few others but in a much lower price range so may not be available everywhere as a short.
Click to expand...

Can I have volume with that?

Seriously on the chart please
 
tech/a said:
Can I have volume with that?

Seriously on the chart please
Click to expand...

Like this ?
(last vol bar won't be complete as its a weekly chart)
 

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mr. jeff said:
VERY well so far
pushing down nicely.

Banks will be next to watch for removal of stength. QBE was my favourite short.
Click to expand...

I note QBE up 5% on a bad down day.
Could be 1.50 in each share.
Will put a chart up tomorrow if it looks promising.
 
mr. jeff said:
I note QBE up 5% on a bad down day.
Could be 1.50 in each share.
Will put a chart up tomorrow if it looks promising.
Click to expand...

You are shorting QBE in this market? Do you know why it's up 5% today?

Boggo said:
Like this ?
(last vol bar won't be complete as its a weekly chart)
Click to expand...

Tomorrow is FTSE rebalance and SWM is being downweighed. So there could be a funny match well down from today's close.
 
BRU is my only short. Left most funds for FTSE futures.

Didn't want to tie up too much in the banks.
 
just as an FYI QBE has a huge exposure to US bond yields. Its share price and US bond yield are highly correlated and have been for sometime. Us bond yields up = QBE up in the main
 
Previous NAB trade would have been out at BE.

Another low risk setup short as it approaches resistance again on low volume?
 
So from what I have read so far, the big winners can really skew the expectancy of a system.

How does this translate to shorting? I have looked at the maths a few different ways and cant decide which is correct.

Are you limited as the best you can do is the price falling to zero, ie shorting $1000 (borrowing $1000 worth of shares and selling at $1000 and then buying them back at say $0.001) profit $1000. Therefore you cant have the big 200% 300% winners to skew the system?

Or is more about increasing the R:R of the system (maybe you only risked $10 to make that $1000)?

So, have I missed something completely regarding how shorting works, expectancy or something else? Are systems designed for shorting very different from long? Or is making a consistent profit from shorting just much harder?

Apologies if this is the wrong thread

Fiftyeight
 
fiftyeight said:
So, have I missed something completely regarding how shorting works, expectancy or something else? Are systems designed for shorting very different from long? Or is making a consistent profit from shorting just much harder?
Fiftyeight
Click to expand...

One point of difficulty is that shorting can be / has been banned during periods of market trouble.. How then can you accurately test when you wouldn't have been able to make trades, which possibly may have been what generated the bulk of system returns..
 

Shorting is not banned very often in the US, but yes quite frequently in other markets as political pressure usually overcomes common sense....

Most equity system traders i know that trade the ASX trade long only, likely for this reason.

CanOz
 
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