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PRM - Prominence Energy

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Hmmm...
Thailand recently diluted. Now we see more shares at 6.7c. Ahhh...
Only a week ago, we were in the mid-8c range.

Once this gets traction, there will be the risk of investors dumping SPP stock for a 20% profit once we get towards the 8c+ range. Then there is the question...what will Hartleys do? They set a target price of 11c but that might not get up pre-Thailand (given the dilution of that project and the placement)

I'm already out. As a BESBS player (Buy Early Sell Before Spud), this is not what I want to see. There are better BESBS plays around at present IMHO.

All the best to holders.


Bought SUR at 5.8c; Sold at 7.3c. 25% profit.
As Kenny Rogers would say, "Ya gotta know when to fold 'em)
 

Hi BESBS,
Looking through the dirllers, who are you following at the moment. I don't know much about oil/gas co's and you seem to know a bit, so any interesting companies around to research? I am familiar with AWE, ROC...
Thanks for any thoughts.
Note I would not dare be considering anything here advice let alone recommendations, looking for ideas only for investigation...
 
Hi BESBS,

I have contacted SUN management and discussed the various unknowns regarding the new project etc. Everything seems vague purposely, as I understand that a condition of the deal arrangement is not to disclose more market sensitive information prior to the government departments approving of the SUN deal. It has been described to me that once divulged the market should accept it very well, as it is truly a company maker notwithstanding that it is only a small equity likely to be held by SUN (15%), but with a total potential value of the project as it stands of around A$600 million (and I don't know the basis of that valuation of course!) it could push SUN share price up considerably! I understand that the underwriters to the placement (Hartleys in Perth) are very supportive of SUN for both the Thai project and this new project, and SUN's new strategy to divest of some equity in Thailand for a slice of this new project.

I suggest that you take another look at SUN once the deal is put on the table, it could go for another run at that stage, and certainly once the Thai project nears itself to drilling.
 
Hi Beatle,

Interesting comments from management - I do value your efforts here, and I do take your points. For me though, the following issue remains:

1. Thailand has already been delayed. At each corner, it seems that SUR have farmed down even further. As a BESBS player, part of the lure for punters is huge leverege. By farming down like this, the leverege drops.

2. The SPP has diluted share holdings. For me, not a huge issue but still a negative.

3. If I were to re-enter, how do I know that Thailand won't be further reduced or another Capital Raising for the latest European adventure? Given past form, you could guarantee this.

4. When finally we get closer to spud, we have a heap pf 6.7c shares that will get dumped as the SP rises. I'd expect to see these flow once we get to 20-25% higher (probably around 8c). This is a possible hurdle that I don't need or want.

While I accept that SUR shall rise as the Thailand drill approaches, I think that there are now better opportunities around for BESBS dollars. Each to their own and I do hope that SUR rises as you hope.

All the best,
BESBS
 
Hi BESBS,

Well in the last short while since our last posts on SUR there has been much happen with the company:-
1. Its had its share price drop down below the SPP level momentarily (just at the close of the SPP which was done at 6.7 cents, it got to as low as 6.5 cents for a short time);
2. Its now confirmed that the Thai onshore project will be likely drilling in January;
3. Its announced the likely take up of a 15% interest in a significant but as yet undisclosed onshore NW Europe project that has the potential according to some, to take SUN multiples of its current share price range!
4. Today, for the first time, there has been a considerable lift in trading volume, and along with that move upwards in share price, touching 8 cents momentarily. Currently at its last sale price of 7.9 cents its up 12%!

Clearly the momentum and sentiment of SUN has changed for the better, and maybe we will see it starting to test the recent high of around 9 cents in coming days as countdown moves to drilling in Thailand, and an anticipated new project announcement...
 
There is an interesting thread provided by htt on HC, which I copy here for those interested, its a very recent report by Hartleys on SUR and its prospects in Thailand (report prepared 30th Nov 2010):

http://www.sunresources.com.au/pdf/broker/SUR_external_301110.pdf

In summary the Hartleys review states:
"The potential multiple return on investment from success in the first three wells, commencing in January 2011, is ~25 times the current share price. This compares favourably with other companies that are close to drilling, which average (by our estimate) a potential return on investment of 10 times. Several of these companies have market capitalisations in excess of A$150m.
Our view is that, due to the reasons previously stated, Sun is a better investment than most of its peers as it has a lower risk profile whilst retaining huge leverage to any success. The multiple well drilling program provides more than one chance at success, diversifying and lowering investment risk. The address is prospective and the inexpensive wells and large prospects provide an attractive combination. In addition to this, any discovery would also result in early cashflow when compared to some of the offshore explorers, which may require large amounts of development capital and several years of construction, before any revenue is possible."

and:
"Conclusion
Sun is on the verge of a transformational drilling campaign onshore in Thailand. It retains a high working interest in large moderate-high risk prospects that provide it with potential to achieve a 25 times return on investment from current prices. We recommend Sun Resource NL as a Speculative Buy with a pre-drill price target of 12cps"

A good wrap for SUR, it appears the company is on the threshold of a marketing campaign with a new revised and glossed up company presentation, prior to first Thai drilling to commence.
 
Back in to SUR again.
Just a small play as we are now just 10 days or so away from drilling. Hopefully we shall see some trader pre-spud action in the next week and I'd be hoping that the SP can manage to get somewhere close to Hartley's (much earlier) report of an 11c estimate pre-spud. Given farm-in news from Europe could appear at any time, a slightly higher pre-spud SP is possible.

Three drillings gives some extra security (as there are 2 to follow the first drill) so I'll probably hold a little way down the well in case we get some early news.

Holding SUR at 8.9c
 
Looks as though SUR is on the move at last with what appears to be a positive 3 well drilling program. Shell had oil shows in this area years ago and with the advancement in technology both in area analysis and drilling it looks encouraging.

The drill program is as in the attached link.

Bankit

www.sunres.com.au/pdf/announcements/2011/ASX%20Sun...
 
Out again of SUR.

As a 'Buy Early Sell Before Spud' BESBS player, I'm happy to take my 7% profit (on top of previous 25% here in November) in just under a fortnight and now move my cash to get set elsewhere.

SUR might well run toward 11c pre-spud and then who knows. Still, keeping to my disciplined strategy, I won't wait to see.

While all drills are risky, this SUR project seems better than most. All the best to holders.

In @ 8.9c
Out @ 9.55c ave
Profit: 7%
 
Announced today:

"Sun Resources NL (“Sun” or “the Company”) (ASX:SUR) is pleased to announce an update on the activity managed by Carnarvon Petroleum Limited (“Carnarvon”), the Operator of L20/50 onshore Thailand. The first well (Tapao Kaew #1) has spud and is operating at a depth of 605 metres."

SP holding steady at 10c, nothing exciting with volume either. There's going to be some action one way or another any moment. Check ASX for announcement.
 
boff said:
There's going to be some action one way or another any moment.
Click to expand...

Well that's a bummer. Approx 25% drop on the news that there first well is empty. It's been drilled to a depth of 1600m, although there is another 175m to go, it's not looking good.

Potentially two more wells to drill, with the Krai Thong prospect coming next.

I think it's interesting that the SP has dropped by almost the exact amount that their potential reserves have dropped by.

I'm still trying to figure out whether to top up, hold or sell. I had a contingent sell order triggered at 0.8, but the SP fell straight through it without giving me the sale. grrr...
 

I think you've misread the ann.

The well isnt empty - they just haven't encountered any sandstone reservoirs down to 1,600m. There is still 100 odd metres of drilling to go. It doesn't look promising but all is not lost.
 
boff said:
No offence, but I think we both read the announcement just right.
Click to expand...

Sorry chief - just didn't understand the contradiction of "Well that's a bummer. Approx 25% drop on the news that there first well is empty."

Best of luck with your position though!
 


Hi folks,

SUR ... here's some astroanalysis, for the next couple of months:-

21-22032011 (equinox) ... 2 time cycles, expected to bring some positive news

08-11042011 ... spotlight on SUR to bring positive market sentiment

12-13042011 ... 2 minor cycles due to come into play

18-21042011 ... major positive cycle, may be triggered by a lunar aspect, on 21042011.

06-09052011 ... 2 time cycles, expected to bring positive (financial ???) news

10052011 ... major and negative time cycle, expected here.

have a great day

paul



=====
 
Anyone been watching? This stock is only starting to make a move as early birds grab what they can. Currently trading around 2 cents with a highly prospective portfolio in the Eagle Ford Shale fairway, Texas, worth an equivalent of $250M, which equates to around 23 cents per share. Drilling for oil to start soon as part of a low risk, high reward program via multi-zoned payloads. This will be a biggie imo.
 
I've seen stocks like MAD go crazy since December. But SUN doesn't seem to be moving at all. The company itself isn't on track to do much and there's no sign of any great announcements that can improve it's revenue, cash position, or profits. A good company needs to constantly improve its financial position and this one is failing to achieve this. Can anyone give a good solid reason why this company is worth investing in?
 
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