PRM - Prominence Energy

[boronia]

Interpretation of the 2D seismic is out today with 3 wells planned for Q4, 2010

Interpretation of the seismic has identified five substantially different prospective styles (play types) being (1) basin margin antithetic fault blocks (akin to the Sirikit Oil Field style structuring), (2) lacustrine fans which may contain sandstone reservoirs deposited via river channels, (3) elevated large horst structures, (4) buttress fault traps (akin to the Na Sanun structure) and (5) possible volcanic intervals indicated by bright seismic amplitudes.
Within these five play types 23 leads have been identified, of which five to six have been high graded. The high graded prospects will be presented to the Joint Venture over the coming weeks to determine which three will be selected for the 2010 drilling programme.

 

[growing]

Interpretation of the 2D seismic is out today with 3 wells planned for Q4, 2010

Interpretation of the seismic has identified five substantially different prospective styles (play types) being (1) basin margin antithetic fault blocks (akin to the Sirikit Oil Field style structuring), (2) lacustrine fans which may contain sandstone reservoirs deposited via river channels, (3) elevated large horst structures, (4) buttress fault traps (akin to the Na Sanun structure) and (5) possible volcanic intervals indicated by bright seismic amplitudes.
Within these five play types 23 leads have been identified, of which five to six have been high graded. The high graded prospects will be presented to the Joint Venture over the coming weeks to determine which three will be selected for the 2010 drilling programme.

That's all well and good but have you seen the half yearly results for SUR?? I just read about them on stockanxiety.com - he is selling up!!! I'm going to hold onto mine however

But a 6 million Dollar loss ? Geeeez !!

 

[boronia]

Hi Boronia,

True, SUR's play here looks high risk. That said, I only ever assume odds of 1:10 for wildcats (unless we are talking GoM or the Cooper basin) hence I don't hold through a well. They are all too high risk for me so it is no issue for my strategy. I still think that the punters will join in later on when action is closer. Time will tell.

PS. Been accumulating around 7c.

BESBS Player (this is slightly off topic) but today CTP release their drilling program for 2010 including some gas, CSG and oil wells. Your BESBS strategy might be a good one - what do ya think?

 

[BESBS Player]

Started to buy in to SUR as a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) play. From the CVN Quarterly, hoping for December action.

5.7c and 5.8c entry to date.

 

[BESBS Player]

Drilling approval out today.

Market liked it...up 15% today at the moment. With a definte well and 2 potential follow-ups, starting December, the speculators will soon be clambering aboard!



Holding SUR at 5.7c ave.:

 

[BESBS Player]

Great to see that many punters are getting set in SUR. Looks like the SP is tracking northward and holding at reasonable levels (finished at 7.3c) - makes it risky for punters to wait and assume that they shall get a much cheaper entry point. So far so good.

Holding SUR at 5.7c ave.

 

[BESBS Player]

A week on. Looks like SUR is holding around the 7.5c mark.
I'd be happy to see that as a SP platform for a little while before the action builds up quickly.


Holding SUR at 5.7c :

 

[beatle]

SUN finally has started to show some real action on the trading front, after the past few weeks consolidating around 7.5 - 8.0 cents. Although I'm not a chartist at all, I'm sure it looks good on a chart.

And of course what is starting to raise the interest of punters in SUN is the soon to be drilled first hole in onshore Thailand, after Carnarvon Petroleum the operator on block L20/50 received formal written approval from the
Department of Mineral Fuels (DMF) confirming that the drilling to commence late 2010 with 1 firm well and 2 possible follow up wells.

The joint venture’s upcoming drill campaign is targeting ‘classic’ sandstone reservoirs and have potential to intersect analogous structures to Carnarvon’s Phetchabun basin oil fields. Previous drilling in this very same permit (e.g. the off structure Nong Bua-1 well) has demonstrated that oil has been generated within the L20/50 concession and has migrated through deeper sandstone reservoirs.

As background L20/50 is located between Thailand’s two largest producing onshore field complexes, being the next basin along from Carnarvon’s Phetchabun Basin Oil Fields (producing up to 15,000 bopd with
>60 mmboe estimated ultimate recovery) and 20 kilometres south, in the same basin as the Sirikit Oil Field (producing ~20,000 bopd with >200 mmboe estimated ultimate recovery).

Punters all aboard before the train sets off altogether!

 

[BESBS Player]

G'day Beatle,

Yes, looks like all aboard now.
With drilling around December/early January, not long now for the punters to clamber on.

Great leverege here...


Holding at 5.7c ave.

 

[beatle]

Hi BESBS, great entry price you've got! (My entry price i'd hate to admit is higher than today's price - I bought in such a long time ago, specifically for the Thai drilling which is finally going to happen!). Especially with Nong Bua having been a successful oil well previously I can see a positive few months ahead for SUR.

SUR trading volume already today is bigger than the past 12 months!

 

[beatle]

Final trading volume of 5.6 million shares absolutely dwarfed the previous highest trading day over the past 12 months (around 2.47 million on 9 Sep 2010, and 2.36 million on 13 Nov 2009), with a great move upwards (+11.11%) to 9.0 cents. There may well be a speeding ticket issued to SUR for its efforts, but clearly those in the know will realise its only the anticipation building for its soon to commence drilling activity in Thailand.

I can see this share price only building more over the next month or so, especially with the AGM also possibly infusing some excitement about the drilling program.

 

[beatle]

SUR share activity on Friday was relatively subdued after the previous more boisterous trading, but importantly its moved up to a more interesting level, with it sitting around the level that had been a longer time resistance level (taken over a few years - excuse my poor chartists commentary! - I'm not one of those elite-ests, lol!).

I believe that getting set in SUR now will be very strategic for a possible break out in share price as time gets closer to the first hole being drilled on the Thai onshore block L20/50 since Nong Bua was proven as containing oil(drilling off structure!) several years ago by others.

The next month will be interesting for SUR

 

[beatle]

SUR share price is now in consolidation at this 9 cents level, and although the volume dropped off yesterday to just 700,00 odd shares, it was comforting to see the price consolidate. I would imagine that it will hold around this level whilst news should begin to grow about the exact timing of spudding the well on its Thai L20/50 onshore property.

(The interesting Bid of 2 million shares that sat there patiently earlier last week at 8.3 cents and had 290,000 shares chomped on it, was moved slightly higher to sit at 8.7 cents, thus it gives some confidence to those newer entrants that may have gotten coldish feet when the upward momentum subsided. My view is that behind that 1.71 million shares sitting patiently there is a lot more waiting for the share price to come off the boil!).

 

[beatle]

I was very surprised to see that line of 1.71 million shares at 8.7 cents get taken out yesterday, someone must have wanted cash quickly! It meant that all of a sudden the flood gates opened and people rushed for the exit doors! I guess it could trigger stop losses for traders, but to be honest I don't know how you can trade any of these smaller spec stocks, as illiquid as they are, with the usual trading tactics of having automatic stop losses.

My trading/investing/punting (lol) strategy is more simple than that, I decide that knowing what the outlook is over the coming months and what I consider to be a reasonably cheap entry point, I get set and wait. And although I may decide that things have changed and therefore take a loss, I keep the big reason for me buying the stock in the first place, that way if it remains intact usually I will continue to hold the stock, maybe I might add to it. Its not the sort of strategy that traders employ, I know that, but I have found it to be a very successful way to invest over the years, although I have not always been successful of course with lots of my trades, overall the majority of trades are positive to give a good result. I'm usually wrong about a stock when the circumstances of the anticipated event doesn't take place.

In the case of SUR, everything remains on track, the oil well is due to spud in the coming months, which month is not certain as there is preparatory work being undertaken by the operator (CVN) but all is going to plan. At the current share price there is still a chance to get set for that, and if I had more funds available I would buy more at present, but since I have got lots on the go at present I will sit tight with the current holding (but if SUR weakens any more I'm motivated to get a few more, lol!).

 

[beatle]

I have noticed that after a slight dip a couple of days ago in the share price and its activity level, that yesterday SUR made a subtle move upwards back to just under 9 cents, and sales below that level are likely to dwindle based on the drilling schedule planned in the coming months.

For a company that gets almost a free ride to earn 30% interest in the Thai onshore block, surrounded by 2 producing oil fields, and with about $3.0 million in the bank, its an exciting time for shareholders who have long waited for that drilling to commence. I can't see the share price falling off much more, but can see it strengthening as we approach the spud date!

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi Beatle & SURers,

Looks like drilling in L20/50 to be delayed due to heavy monsoonal rains affecting condition of access roads and drilling pads (CVN qtrly).

From what I see, CVN/SUR hope to see drilling start by the end of Dec. but realistically, we might see January as a starting date. This explains today's sell-down as some traders would jump ship to have funds around to play with over the next few weeks.

From my perspective, it is a pity but no real issue. It merely means that we delay the anticipated final SP run into spud takes place 6 weeks later.

Happy to hold...

 

[beatle]

Thanks BESBS Player, I was wondering why the sudden drop in share price and it surprises me that a few weeks delay can be so hard for some investors to take! In fact I took some of the shares on the fall today, and of course although I am not so patient I am very patient when it comes to such an opportunity. I think the reaction of that investor (?) to dump 400,000 shares just before the close was certainly an over-reaction, and is a short term aberration to a long term uptrend for SUR, and its positive outlook with the spudding of the first hole!
At least having the drilling in such a country as Thailand with a relatively seasonal limit to the wet season and usually any flooding that arises from those rains, means that the delay should be of limited duration (from my first hand experience there around the Pisanulok and Roi Et areas - which I presume are in the general area of where this block is located and the target area for drilling - do you know more exactly the location of that first hole?)will soon be dry again as the dry season is approaching rapidly.
I have got time on my hands that will turn this into a more substantial return on investment. In fact I might add a few more if the price weakens any further next week.

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi Beatle.
Yes, I had a smile as well. Drilling is still going ahead, just a little later than hoped. We are still looking at Q1 2011.
I'm not surprised that a few investors were tempted to grab the cheap stock and accumulate on the dip.

I noticed today that SUR is again near 8.7c. Happy to hold here. Patience should be nicely rewarded.

Holding SUR at 5.7c

 

[beatle]

Hi BESBS, and others. SUR has called for a Trading Halt, as a precursor to announcing a capital raising, lets hope this doesn't upset the apple cart!

 

[beatle]

Just in case those watching SUR missed the latest news announcement, it being the second of 2 for the day, I post the first couple of paragraphs which explains the TH and proposed capital raising (of yet to be disclosed quantum) released earlier today:

"Sun Resources NL (“Sun Resources”) is pleased to announce that a non-binding Term Sheet with an as yet undisclosed party (due to commercial sensitivities) has been executed for Sun Resources to participate in the drilling of a high impact well onshore North-West Europe which will
test a 720 bcf conventional gas target in the second quarter of 2011.
Sun Resources will fund €1.645m (A$2.3m) of past and future drilling costs to earn a 15% working interest in the farm-in concession. The planned well and equity assignment in the permit to Sun Resources is subject to approval by local authorities."

Lets hope that this supports a modest capital raising only, and fires up the market!