PRK - TOL Takeover

[gobzilla]

Does anyone see an end in sight to this fight and are Toll going to win.

I was also wondering what price people think Toll will end up having to pay, $6.60 equivilant as bid or do we think they will end up having to pay a higher price.

I have been holding on for a while and am just wondering to get out now while the going is not too bad in case Toll give up and interest in the shares plummet.

I think Toll seem very desperate to get their hands on things initally but seemed to have cooled off and I can't decide if this is a smoke screen or whether they really are sick of the fight.

Any opinions????

Gobzilla

 

[RichKid]

There's some older info in the PRK thread, not sure what's going on though, maybe the ACCC report is next?

 

[RichKid]

Here's some info on a possible new strategy/tactic. ACCC view is next main issue in my view. Hard to id fact in takeovers.

Toll might pursue P&O instead
By Philip Hopkins
SMH November 3, 2005

Toll Holdings has flagged that it may buy the stevedoring assets of P&O Ports in Australia if it fails in its $4.6 billion bid for Patrick Corporation.

Toll managing director Paul Little disclosed this yesterday when discussing the reported interest by the government of Dubai, through Dubai Ports World, in buying P&O's worldwide operations.

The Danish shipping line AP Moeller, the biggest shipping operator in the world, has also been reported to be interested in P&O.

Mr Little said Toll would be keen to talk to both groups to see whether they wanted to keep P&O's Australian assets in their world portfolios. The Australian assets may not be central to their future growth plans.

"We have said Patrick's are the assets we would prefer to have. But if Patrick's assets are not available, we would look closely at P&O," he said.

Mr Little acknowledged that Toll had previously approached P&O to buy its Australian operations but "they were not keen".

"Under a sale process, we need to revise that now," he said. But the news about other parties' interest in P&O only became known on the weekend, so Toll had had no time to do any work on it.

Mr Little said the move on P&O confirmed the philosophy behind Toll's bid for Patrick: the rationalisation of the global logistics industry.

A takeover by Toll of Patrick would increase efficiency and be good for customers, particularly in and out of Asia, he said.

Mr Little's comments came as he issued Toll's supplementary bidder's statement in reply to Patrick's target's statement, and announced that the offer had been extended to December 2.

Mr Little said that by November 14, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission would publish its phase one findings which would summarise the sensitive issues involved in a possible takeover.

These potentially were rail and coastal shipping. "We will address them as we go," he said.

Mr Little said the deficiencies in the Patrick target's statement reinforced the merits of Toll's takeover bid. These included:

■ Patrick has effectively endorsed the logic of Toll's bid by its plans to expand in freight forwarding and express freight but has no strategy to bring it about.

■ Despite two years of profit forecasts, Patrick has not provided any information on its current gearing and forecast cash flows.

■ Patrick's financial forecasts rely on the successful Pacific National joint venture continuing in its present form.

Mr Little said Patrick's port division was valued at 25 times 2005 earnings, which was 90 per cent above the average of recent port company transactions.

The multiple being offered for P&O was about 13 times earnings, while Toll's implied multiple was about 19. "The value we have placed on Patrick's ports assets means … we are paying a very full price," he said.

Mr Little reiterated that Toll had ruled out raising its price for Patrick. Toll's share price had been hit by concerns about the ACCC and the possible breaking-up of PN.

"Once Toll's share price is normalised, we will have a better view of the value of the Toll bid," he said.

 

[Bingo]

I hold Patrick as well. The above re P&O Ports could be a total bluff by Toll. I don't think that Tolls' interest has cooled off. It costs money and prestige to abort a takeover and they will not do so that easily. Pestige and ego is important to the key players in Toll and Patrick.

The big risk is the ACCC. However, I read an earlier statement that Toll expected approval subject to the sale of certain bits which is the reason I will hang in.

 

[Ko Ko]

Toll vs Patrick

Just choosing in between to invest in. Could you investors explain your reasons for one over the other?
Thanks in advance

 

[StockyBailx]

Re: Toll vs Patrick

Ko Ko good call, my man. I understand theres been a bit of a scene between those two and TOLL ended up buying out PATRICK. So my money would have to be with TOL say about 3 trading days ago, when the take over had started to kick in.

I really couldn't see any reason for you puting your money on Patrick, condering they're the ones that sold out. What is there to gain for Patrick, from hear on in I don't really know. Except for the fact that there is a possible takeover bid from
the Macquarie Bank- (Linsey Fox) Apparently he has offered more for and to the biding of Patrick. Supposingly out smarting the rivals of TOLL.

So maybe its still anyones game, and if Marcquarie Bank doesn't get it own way, I still think that TOL are the ones coming out on top?

Stocky.....

 

[Ko Ko]

Re: Toll vs Patrick

Hey SB,
I thought Patrick got bought out already. Chris Corrigons son is my mate and I think I should ask him what is actually going on. I thought Patricks got bought out at 7pm on friday. Ill have to see what the papers say tomorrow. From reading the financial review it has said that Patricks has handed over the keys to toll now. But although I could be wrong.... I was thinking of investing in either one but you are correct that Patricks got bought out.

 

[StockyBailx]

Re: Toll vs Patrick

I got that information from the Weekend Australian (last weeks). After reading sum of this weeks, Paul Little is to hand the keys over on June 30.

So it looks to me as TOL is going to be a very big influence in the transport Industry and you could most likely expect sum very big things happening with TOL come June 30. And it still looks to me that the Macquarie Bank is looking for their piece of the pie.

Stocky.....

 

[Julia]

Re: Toll vs Patrick

Macquarie withdrew last week when one of their consortium members dropped out, leaving the way clear for Toll.

Julia