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PRG - Programmed Maintenance Services

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I wouldn't call it a falling knife at this point.
There has been keen buying at this level although last time it was clapping the second take over proposal and also heading up to a dividend payment.
Now SKE is yeilding quite strongly at this level so one may hope that the dividend can be maintained even with the part cash payout and merger costs.
It is heading into the 61.8% retracement at $2.47 and looking at what it did last time it would be prudent to take some off the short table, let it bounce, see how high and what volume does if and when it heads to retest these levels after a bounce.
 
SKE has indicated that its intention is to pay out the cash component of the offer as a franked dividend. If that happens SKE is about a 10% cheaper way into PRG for low tax entities like superfund’s.

There are time cost of money, deal risks and failure to pay the full franked amount to consider, but If you’re positive on the combined business then SKE may be a better entry atm.

If you look at the relative strength since they announced the deal it looks to me like the ARB is trying to close. Of course they could both go down as the ARB closes so if you’re not particularly keen on the combined business and a possible repricing to recognise the synergies you may want to pair trade it. Mind you a long in SKE even as part of a pair against PRG won’t be real pleasant if the deal doesn’t go ahead.
 
hmmm... Me thinks Nick Kyrgios must be the new CEO of prg... @ $2.50 they've tanked in the worst possible way!
 
ukulele said:
I have to admit that it does at the moment look like the proverbial dropping knife. Interested to know your timeframe for this trade Wysiwyg?
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Sold at a loss today fella. It's what they want, to sell at a loss that is. ;)
 
craft said:
SKE has indicated that its intention is to pay out the cash component of the offer as a franked dividend. If that happens SKE is about a 10% cheaper way into PRG for low tax entities like superfund’s.

There are time cost of money, deal risks and failure to pay the full franked amount to consider, but If you’re positive on the combined business then SKE may be a better entry atm.

If you look at the relative strength since they announced the deal it looks to me like the ARB is trying to close. Of course they could both go down as the ARB closes so if you’re not particularly keen on the combined business and a possible repricing to recognise the synergies you may want to pair trade it. Mind you a long in SKE even as part of a pair against PRG won’t be real pleasant if the deal doesn’t go ahead.
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Excellent summary of the current situation.

I am arbing it through a pair. The margin actually slimmed significantly this morning for the first time, but SKE is now catching up to PRG's falls.
The further down we go, the more downside is removed from a number of angles with regard to a long position on SKE - mainly; reduced downside in the event of a failed takeover and the soon to be combined entity will be trading on a cheaper multiple (note: it already looks decent based on multiples that SKE and PRG have historically traded at).
I got out of my SKE position at $1.55ish (too early) on the way up a few weeks back, but we are now back below that level. It won't be long before I regain my exposure...hopefully we can squeeze a few more cents first.
 
This newbie has reached a point where it's time to ask the experts for advice :eek:

Having bought this stock on the XD date only to watch the subsequent value crash around 15% what are my best options? I've ruled out panicking and flipping the bird in their general direction :)

Should I wait for future dividends (if they're sustainable at this level) to reimburse the lost capital? Or just sit and hope the price recovers?

TIA :xyxthumbs
 
PZ99 said:
This newbie has reached a point where it's time to ask the experts for advice :eek:

Having bought this stock on the XD date only to watch the subsequent value crash around 15% what are my best options? I've ruled out panicking and flipping the bird in their general direction :)
Click to expand...

If your not going to sell then your next two options cover it!
Should I wait for future dividends (if they're sustainable at this level) to reimburse the lost capital? Or just sit and hope the price recovers?

TIA :xyxthumbs
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You could average down
You could sell part of your position to Minimize further losses.
You should revisit why you thought it was a good idea to buy it.
What went wrong or what's changed.
 
Mr Greedy guts who was pigging out on the 25th of May, for a few days but was feeling too sick about things yesterday. Seems to have returned to the table at the opening bounce this morning.
Lets see if he wants to go the whole hog through 2.40
 
tech/a said:
If your not going to sell then your next two options cover it!


You could average down
You could sell part of your position to Minimize further losses.
You should revisit why you thought it was a good idea to buy it.
What went wrong or what's changed.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the reply :)

I take it "average down" as in buying more stock to lower the cost basis? I'm considering it but just unsure if further losses in the price are imminent.

I guess my error was in expecting a lesser drop after the XD and maybe selling just prior to the next event might be the way to go if I apply the above scenario :)
 
PRG got away with a deep discount takeover of SKE at the cycle low. Skilled Engineering, a 50 year old Australian company is no longer. No material wealth from the takeover if held SKE above $1.70 ish.
 
Very happy with the outcome with the SKE cash and final dividend, PRG dividend stream and future growth confidence. I think this recent run up has peaked but the higher lows since February suggests the longer term weekly trend is continuing up.
 
I sold mine for the same price I bought them for in June (2.82)... 2 dividends minus 2 brokerage minus 6 coffees a day. Panic over :xyxthumbs
 
Had more share supply turn up at + $2.90 last week and price has tried to hold. Historically this stock is pointy peaky so I am expecting a pull back in the $2.60 to $2.70 range. Together they have most employment sectors covered for staff supply.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Had more share supply turn up at + $2.90 last week and price has tried to hold. Historically this stock is pointy peaky so I am expecting a pull back in the $2.60 to $2.70 range. Together they have most employment sectors covered for staff supply.
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Agree with the above, especially the expectation of a pullback towards $2.60.
I have current resistance at $2.95; took some profit off the table at average $2.92 and lifted my trailing stop to a break below $2.82.

PRG am 09-11-15.gif
 
Day traders capitalised on a 10% drop this day with an exhaustion sell point of $2.55. Obviously the half year news triggered a desperate sell off.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Had more share supply turn up at + $2.90 last week and price has tried to hold. Historically this stock is pointy peaky so I am expecting a pull back in the $2.60 to $2.70 range. Together they have most employment sectors covered for staff supply.
Click to expand...
Expectation is inappropriate for the markets. Never meets expectations however I noticed the price made a bit of a turn last week. Not sure how much of a bounce but positive fundamentals will help I would hope (note not expect ;)). For a labour hire company, job ads. trending up is a good sign.

The number of jobs advertised around the country was largely flat last month after rising for four months in a row.

The ANZ Job Advertisements Series shows job listings slipped by just 0.1 per cent in December, sesonally adjusted, leaving the yearly rate of growth at a healthy 10 per cent.

In December, online job ads eased by 0.1 per cent, while those in newspapers fell by 1.2 per cent.

ANZ senior economist Justin Fabo said the slight fall in job ads last month was likely due in part to the Christmas holiday and hiring could rise again this month.

"The number of job ads we saw on that day were probably a bit lower than what we might have seen otherwise," he said.

"So our guess is that growth in job ads was probably a bit understated for December, and when we get the January numbers we might see a bit of a bounce back."

Despite the flat result for December, Mr Fabo says last year's 10 per cent growth in job ads suggests there is good momentum in the labour market.
Click to expand...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-11/job-ads-point-to-stable-unemployment/7081362


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Stock's been given the royal dump today after a writedown and a slashed dividend... down to SKE level pricing at the moment :eek:
 
^ Sorry to read that :(

@ $1.18 with a 5c dividend it is a good buy I wonder???

Last year it was 11.5c with the SP @ 2.86 ;)
 

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