Present Value of Future Cash Flows

galumay · 23 April 2015

craft said:
Pretty Unknown company missing prospect guidance - reaction probably not so surprising. If you gain some knowledge from the digging around you are doing at the moment and Huon sets into a bit of a post float funk here it may just at some stage afford you that intersection of knowledge and opportunity that offers decent risk/reward.

Yes, I have done well a number of times buying in similar situations, MMS was probably the best of them for me. There is some sort of scaling relationship that I think you get a feel for, the impact in real terms of the announcement, the effect on the current price and the opportunity that presents. I also saw it with Sirtex recently, although I was too slow and missed the opportunity.

One thing I have realised those opportunities are fairly frequent, so sooner or later you are watching when it happens, and you have the intersection of knowledge and confidence to act on them.

craft · 22 May 2015

Sirtex life changing.

I have a 25% mark to market maximum concentration for my personal (non SMSF) funds. Sirtex was initially purchased some time ago and had run up to bump its head against the limit and has since run into major volatility. I have simply kept exposure at my 25% max which has resulted in much buying and selling of late and thrown of cash to such an extent that I look back and think how lucky the announcement on 17 March didn’t go as I expected. How ironic.

But the financial success of the Sirtex investment is not what has been life changing – that sort of thing has already happened before. It’s the scouting around in cancer sufferer/survivor forums that has been pivotal. The explicit examples of how important time is when viewed through the eyes of those who truly comprehend theirs is limited have seemed to resonate with me pushing mid 40’s.

With this change in perspective on time – I think I really now have the motivation to change how I use time and spending as much time as I do on this forum ain’t on the bucket list.

Hope to still drop in from time to time but not as regularly as I have.

Mid-life crisis here I come.

Happy journey’s people.

DeepState · 22 May 2015

craft said:
change in perspective on time

Mid-life crisis here I come.

Happy journey’s people.

craft said:
Thank you Robin Williams. You made me laugh you made me think and you made me feel.

"Carpe Diem." Every day.

"..because we are food for worms, lads..
..because, believe it or not, each and every one of us in this room is one day going to stop breathing, turn cold and die."

High quality choice, Craft. Best investment you will ever make.

In tribute to this thread, Present Values usually include some terminal value. In life, that's not generally a perpetuity.

galumay · 22 May 2015

Best of luck Craft, you will be sorely missed here - your contributions have been of the highest level and your generosity in sharing your knowledge has been gratefully received.

As one who is currently having my own experience in re allocation of time and resources through my 'gap year', I can heartily recommend the investment in one's self and family!

Hopefully you will find time to make the odd post here and keep us in the loop. Best of luck with your ventures.

skc · 22 May 2015

craft said:
Hope to still drop in from time to time but not as regularly as I have.

Mid-life crisis here I come.

Happy journey’s people.

Hope to see you around, Craft.

Klogg · 23 July 2015

McLovin said:
I agree. I think WOW is a classic example of overpaying for growth. It has the highest margins of almost any grocery chain in the world and, as I think I've mentioned before, margins are notorious for being mean reverting.

Greenwald is excellent and a bit overlooked. He mixes quantitative and qualitative better than most and forces you to really think about how one effects the other, IMO.

I'm very slowly working my way through this thread and found this - thought it was quite amusing given recent announcements from Woolies.

craft · 6 June 2016

I’m leaving – yer I know again.
Hey but if you’re reading this thread you can probably understand the mental journey required as part of being a full time investor and I’ve displayed some volatility I know.

This time it’s not so much about me craving mental space and silence. I’m revitalised with a whole new set of objectives and ambitions around our PAF, and that aspect of finding meaning has been a bigger struggle than I realised until I solved it for quite a while – there was a hole, I thought I wanted to fill it with sharing what had helped me and my attempts always felt futile, but that’s not an ambition anymore.

I’m just doing this time what people do and voting with my feet (mouse) Making my protest. I strongly dislike some aspects of the ASF culture and I can’t ignore it (I’m an old housing commission boy – I have trouble not fighting back). I don’t want to be a part of it anymore.

I owe a debt of gratitude to many people who I have talked shop with over my time here:

VES
McLovin
skc
Robusta (where is he?)
VSntchr
Klogg
Can OZ
Heskings1
Smurf1976 (not sure we talked but sure read your stuff especially on Tassie)
Deep State
Hiddencow
Galumay
Know the Past
Systematic
Shouldaindex
Intrinsic Value
Peter2
Newt
So Cynical
cynic
Sinner
ROE
fraa
Faramir
Vixs
Junior
skyQuake
Trembling Hand
Kid hustler
Lone wolf
Burglar
r and r
oddson

and many more, apologises to those I have forgotten, but memory is not my strong suit.

You guys/girls? Taught me lots. Thanks.

Hopefully we will cross paths again some day.

galumay · 6 June 2016

craft said:
I’m leaving – yer I know again.
.....

You guys/girls? Taught me lots. Thanks.

Hopefully we will cross paths again some day.

No, you taught us more than you will ever realise. You will be sadly missed.

I totally understand, the frustration level has been high this week.

Please dm me an email address if you would, I would love to stay in contact and discuss the odd thing with you!

best of luck mate!

McLovin · 6 June 2016

craft said:
there was a hole, I thought I wanted to fill it with sharing what had helped me and my attempts always felt futile, but that’s not an ambition anymore.

They definitely weren't futile for those of us who took the time to understand. So long, mate. You've taught me a hell of a lot about investing.

skc · 6 June 2016

craft said:
I’m leaving – yer I know again.

Hopefully we will cross paths again some day.

Craft,

All the best mate. This place can be trying at times and the reward/effort/frustration mix isn't always what we desire. I fully understand your decision.

Look me up if you are ever in BrisVegas.

cheers

kid hustlr · 6 June 2016

Kid hustlr*

Thanks for everything craft

Value Hunter · 6 June 2016

Sorry to see you go Craft. You have been a great contributor to this forum.

robusta · 6 June 2016

Craft,

Dragged me out of my hibernation.

The wealth of your insights are calculated in more than dollars.

Thank you again.

McLovin · 6 June 2016

robusta said:
Craft,

Dragged me out of my hibernation.

The wealth of your insights are calculated in more than dollars.

Thank you again.

Don't be a stranger!

Faramir · 6 June 2016

Hi Craft

I am honoured to see my name. Especially when I am very new and have not obtain the experience to make valuable contributions like everyone else you have mentioned. I feel fortunate that you liked some of the stocks I was watching.

I actually didn't want to write on this thread because I consider it one of my treasures. I did not want "strain" it with my lack knowledge. Yet I am writing on it to make a request. I am not sure if Craft would agree but it would mean a lot to me.

Can I ask Joe if he would make this thread/topic "Sticky"? I believe this thread deserves at least a "sticky". This thread may be Craft's treasure or maybe it is just another thread to him??? Yet I believe that many others would agree with me. Think of the hours and the knowledge invested into this thread. If I ask if this thread can become "sticky", I am not trying to take anything away from any other thread. I believe that this thread also deserves its place on top of the thread list of this section.

This thread is very detailed for me. As a beginner, I guess I need to re-read it at least 4-5 times to truly appreciate it. The opening page of this thread is somewhat very important (to me at least).

To everyone else: can you ask Joe to delete this post but only after my request to make this thread "sticky" has been heard. I only want to ask. If Craft disagrees, then fair enough but I wanted an opportunity to ask.

Knowledge is knowledge: everyone has more than me. In 2015, I only purchased two stocks and sold 1 stock. This year I have brought nothing (yet). VED was acquired, so I 'lost' it. Money fires up various emotions. Think of what people have been doing to each other in the real world throughout the history of mankind. I guess this forum is just a mini mirror of it. There are other things in my life firing up my emotions and that's way I have written so little this year.

To Craft: last time you left, I felt I missed a massive opportunity as you left just as I joined. Thank you for having the courtesy of letting us know that you need time out: whether it is short, long or (hopefully not) indefinitely. If you need it, then no one can argue.

To Joe: can you please ask Craft if he would mind making this thread "sticky"? I can see so many positive posts in this thread. This is definitely one of Craft's best parting gifts.

luutzu · 7 June 2016

craft said:
I’m leaving – yer I know again.
Hey but if you’re reading this thread you can probably understand the mental journey required as part of being a full time investor and I’ve displayed some volatility I know.

This time it’s not so much about me craving mental space and silence. I’m revitalised with a whole new set of objectives and ambitions around our PAF, and that aspect of finding meaning has been a bigger struggle than I realised until I solved it for quite a while – there was a hole, I thought I wanted to fill it with sharing what had helped me and my attempts always felt futile, but that’s not an ambition anymore.

I’m just doing this time what people do and voting with my feet (mouse) Making my protest. I strongly dislike some aspects of the ASF culture and I can’t ignore it (I’m an old housing commission boy – I have trouble not fighting back). I don’t want to be a part of it anymore.

I owe a debt of gratitude to many people who I have talked shop with over my time here:

VES
McLovin
skc
Robusta (where is he?)
VSntchr
Klogg
Can OZ
Heskings1
Smurf1976 (not sure we talked but sure read your stuff especially on Tassie)
Deep State
Hiddencow
Galumay
Know the Past
Systematic
Shouldaindex
Intrinsic Value
Peter2
Newt
So Cynical
cynic
Sinner
ROE
fraa
Faramir
Vixs
Junior
skyQuake
Trembling Hand
Kid hustler
Lone wolf
Burglar
r and r
oddson

and many more, apologises to those I have forgotten, but memory is not my strong suit.

You guys/girls? Taught me lots. Thanks.

Hopefully we will cross paths again some day.

I am somewhat offended craft. My name's not on the list dude. We did debate didn't we?

Take care man.

For what it's worth, don't take things too seriously. Life's too serious to not crack jokes and trade insults on forums.

luutzu · 7 June 2016

Faramir said:
Hi Craft

I am honoured to see my name. Especially when I am very new and have not obtain the experience to make valuable contributions like everyone else you have mentioned. I feel fortunate that you liked some of the stocks I was watching.

I actually didn't want to write on this thread because I consider it one of my treasures. I did not want "strain" it with my lack knowledge. Yet I am writing on it to make a request. I am not sure if Craft would agree but it would mean a lot to me.

Can I ask Joe if he would make this thread/topic "Sticky"? I believe this thread deserves at least a "sticky". This thread may be Craft's treasure or maybe it is just another thread to him??? Yet I believe that many others would agree with me. Think of the hours and the knowledge invested into this thread. If I ask if this thread can become "sticky", I am not trying to take anything away from any other thread. I believe that this thread also deserves its place on top of the thread list of this section.

This thread is very detailed for me. As a beginner, I guess I need to re-read it at least 4-5 times to truly appreciate it. The opening page of this thread is somewhat very important (to me at least).

To everyone else: can you ask Joe to delete this post but only after my request to make this thread "sticky" has been heard. I only want to ask. If Craft disagrees, then fair enough but I wanted an opportunity to ask.

Knowledge is knowledge: everyone has more than me. In 2015, I only purchased two stocks and sold 1 stock. This year I have brought nothing (yet). VED was acquired, so I 'lost' it. Money fires up various emotions. Think of what people have been doing to each other in the real world throughout the history of mankind. I guess this forum is just a mini mirror of it. There are other things in my life firing up my emotions and that's way I have written so little this year.

To Craft: last time you left, I felt I missed a massive opportunity as you left just as I joined. Thank you for having the courtesy of letting us know that you need time out: whether it is short, long or (hopefully not) indefinitely. If you need it, then no one can argue.

To Joe: can you please ask Craft if he would mind making this thread "sticky"? I can see so many positive posts in this thread. This is definitely one of Craft's best parting gifts.

How come you're always so polite?

I've never met anyone as polite as you Faramir. But maybe that's just me making them impolite

If I could pass on an advice my Saturday school teacher once taught us: when writing, don't put yourself down and don't pronounce yourself as someone's junior.

One, your writing will elevate or put you down itself.

Two, some kid (or newbie) might be reading and since you say you're not worthy, they tend to agree with you.

I think you're alright man, just don't be too polite - it annoys some people.

So_Cynical · 7 June 2016

craft said:
I’m leaving – yer I know again.

ASF at its best is when people really share, let you right in thus leaving themselves open, craft along with many others has added real value to the discussion..thanks.

robusta said:
Craft,
Dragged me out of my hibernation.

And that's a good thing.

craft · 7 June 2016

Faramir said:
Hi Craft

I am honoured to see my name. Especially when I am very new and have not obtain the experience to make valuable contributions like everyone else you have mentioned. I feel fortunate that you liked some of the stocks I was watching.

I actually didn't want to write on this thread because I consider it one of my treasures. I did not want "strain" it with my lack knowledge. Yet I am writing on it to make a request. I am not sure if Craft would agree but it would mean a lot to me.

Can I ask Joe if he would make this thread/topic "Sticky"? I believe this thread deserves at least a "sticky". This thread may be Craft's treasure or maybe it is just another thread to him??? Yet I believe that many others would agree with me. Think of the hours and the knowledge invested into this thread. If I ask if this thread can become "sticky", I am not trying to take anything away from any other thread. I believe that this thread also deserves its place on top of the thread list of this section.

This thread is very detailed for me. As a beginner, I guess I need to re-read it at least 4-5 times to truly appreciate it. The opening page of this thread is somewhat very important (to me at least).

To everyone else: can you ask Joe to delete this post but only after my request to make this thread "sticky" has been heard. I only want to ask. If Craft disagrees, then fair enough but I wanted an opportunity to ask.

Knowledge is knowledge: everyone has more than me. In 2015, I only purchased two stocks and sold 1 stock. This year I have brought nothing (yet). VED was acquired, so I 'lost' it. Money fires up various emotions. Think of what people have been doing to each other in the real world throughout the history of mankind. I guess this forum is just a mini mirror of it. There are other things in my life firing up my emotions and that's way I have written so little this year.

To Craft: last time you left, I felt I missed a massive opportunity as you left just as I joined. Thank you for having the courtesy of letting us know that you need time out: whether it is short, long or (hopefully not) indefinitely. If you need it, then no one can argue.

To Joe: can you please ask Craft if he would mind making this thread "sticky"? I can see so many positive posts in this thread. This is definitely one of Craft's best parting gifts.

Hi Faramir – Yours was one of the first names that popped to mind because I hugely respect you and wish I could be a bit more like you.

luutzu said:
Just don't be too polite - it annoys some people.

Worst advice I have ever seen. But it’s typical of the fight, fight, fight forum culture.

Don’t worry about the sticky – the few that will value the content will find it.

This site seems to sadly reflect something bigger. If Bogan Hunters was on at the same time as a 4 Corners investigation into the difficulties people being brought up in housing commission face – you can bet 4 corners wouldn’t win the ratings. Content doesn’t count – voyeurism of ........ – That’s what is good for business and as far as I’m concerned the moderation of the site condones if not encourages it, so it’s never going to change.

Maybe its a good thing to have this aspect of human nature play out on forums, maybe it stops it manifesting physically, maybe it encourages it - I realy don't know but I have experienced it physically and my upbringing was probably paradise to some that have come here from war torn countries. End of the day I can’t be part of it – and that obviously means I have to stop reading too!!!!!

But don’t you stop being you – the world needs a lot more like you.

Ps

Howdy Robusta – Another person that naturally has qualities as an investor and person that I have to fight hard to achieve.

Hope you are well.

CanOz · 7 June 2016

Craft, take care son...and look us up with SKC if your ever in Brissy!

Present Value of Future Cash Flows

galumay

learner

craft

DeepState

Multi-Strategy, Quant and Fundamental

galumay

learner

skc

Goldmember

Klogg

craft

galumay

learner

McLovin

skc

Goldmember

kid hustlr

Value Hunter

robusta

McLovin

Faramir

Very New Investor

luutzu

luutzu

So_Cynical

The Contrarian Averager

craft

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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