michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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I like all the above except for GOLD, it should go over $1000USD again at the least?
What do you think of this?
thx
MS
Predictions for 2009
- Thread starter Dowdy
- Start date
I like all the above except for GOLD, it should go over $1000USD again at the least?
What do you think of this?
thx
MS
- Joined
- 6 October 2008
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The charts are compelling.
I agree it's hard to make a case against GOLD atm, but there has been substantial USD weakness over the last couple of months and I would expect the USD to strengthen again early next year and see the GOLD price fall at the same time. Then again I did think we would already be under $600 and it's rallied nicely. So I was wrong on that call. I guess if AUD falls as far as we think then anyone in Australia holding gold is probably going to pretty well.
According to your predictinos that mining stocks continue to fall (I assume this is due to further falls in commodities) how will the Aussie dollar which has such a high correlation to commodity prices reach parity and beyond? If your predictions are contradicting each other how do you expect them to have the slightest chance of coming true???
I believe the Aussie dollar along with commodity prices will strengthen not because I believe that the world it out of recession but because I believe that the US dollar will weaken significantly next year.
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The aussie dollar will do well against the US MAINLY because of a weak US dollar, not necessarily due to stronger commodities but that's what i said originally anyways
Well I have a different view. I think we will see a market rally feb through May to about 10.5K in the DOW and 4,300 ASX followed by a significant decline to below levels today by end of Oct. IMO house prices in Australia will have accelerated declines of about 30 to 35% on present depressed prices and not recover for a minimum of 5 years if not longer. I tip unemployment to hit 9% by year end and stabalise at this level with the USA sinking into a depression like state towards the end of q3. Finally I see the $A at about US.75c most of the year with oil at US$75 by end of q2 and holding.
I like this prediction
hard to say where the Aussie is heading, one side of the coin is that our interest rates are going to be reduced creating further downward pressure on the dollar and then there is also the government budgets going into deficit which also adds more downward pressure on our dollar.
upside of dollar is actually gold price getting stronger makes our dollar stronger, i think our third biggest export in value is gold. so if the yank dollar declines against our currency and further spurs gold price increases then this
offsets the price in Australian value of gold.
upside of dollar is actually gold price getting stronger makes our dollar stronger, i think our third biggest export in value is gold. so if the yank dollar declines against our currency and further spurs gold price increases then this
offsets the price in Australian value of gold.
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Murenbeeld reckons gold will reach $2,300 [USD]
Brendan Ryan >>> www.miningmx.com
11 FEB 2009
THE GOLD price should average $945/oz during 2009 but rise to $995/oz by the end of the year and average $1,050/oz during 2010.
Those are the latest predictions made by gold “guru” Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist for Dundee Wealth Economics, speaking at the Mining Indaba being held in Cape Town.
But Murenbeeld added he believed gold would eventually reach $2,300/oz although he did not put a timeframe on this prediction.
The price level of $2,300/oz holds considerable significance for gold investors and analysts because it represents the current, inflation-adjusted value of the price of $850/oz that gold reached early in 1980.
Interviewed after his presentation Murenbeeld said, “Over the long cycle gold will take out $2,300/oz but that could take up to five years before it happens.”
Murenbeeld said he believed the gold price had held up remarkably well against the impact of the global financial crisis that erupted last year.
“Gold has been the best asset to be in. It has risen to new highs in almost every currency and I have been surprised at how well ETF (exchange traded fund) investment in gold held up last year, “ he commented.
He added, “Recessions are bad for everything including gold. You have to remember that gold represents liquidity of last resort which means that sometimes people sell the stuff.
“It’s what people do to get out of recessions that is good for gold. The metal survived the 2001 recession well because (former Federal Reserve Bank chairman) Alan Greenspan was very quick on the reflation side.”
Murenbeeld highlighted the current reflationary measures being taken by the United States and other major economies and commented, “global money and fiscal reflation will remain necessary for years to come even after the current global financial crisis.
“That’s because of the social promises made by governments to the ‘baby boomer’ generation which is about to retire. Printing money is good for gold and governments’ choices for debt reduction are limited. “
Turning to the role of the world’s central banks – which at times have been heavy sellers of gold – Murenbeeld commented, “I sense central bank attitudes to gold are changing and they no longer view it as inherited nuclear waste.
“I feel central banks are getting religion again and I don’t think they will be as negative on gold as they have been in the past.”
Murenbeeld concluded, “we are in an uptrend. I am absolutely convinced of that but developments might not take place as fast as you might want.
“It is normal in a cyclical, long-term uptrend that you could have one or even two years of counter-trend movements. It could take a while before the previous peak gold price of $1,030/oz gets taken out.”
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Brendan Ryan >>> www.miningmx.com
11 FEB 2009
THE GOLD price should average $945/oz during 2009 but rise to $995/oz by the end of the year and average $1,050/oz during 2010.
Those are the latest predictions made by gold “guru” Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist for Dundee Wealth Economics, speaking at the Mining Indaba being held in Cape Town.
But Murenbeeld added he believed gold would eventually reach $2,300/oz although he did not put a timeframe on this prediction.
The price level of $2,300/oz holds considerable significance for gold investors and analysts because it represents the current, inflation-adjusted value of the price of $850/oz that gold reached early in 1980.
Interviewed after his presentation Murenbeeld said, “Over the long cycle gold will take out $2,300/oz but that could take up to five years before it happens.”
Murenbeeld said he believed the gold price had held up remarkably well against the impact of the global financial crisis that erupted last year.
“Gold has been the best asset to be in. It has risen to new highs in almost every currency and I have been surprised at how well ETF (exchange traded fund) investment in gold held up last year, “ he commented.
He added, “Recessions are bad for everything including gold. You have to remember that gold represents liquidity of last resort which means that sometimes people sell the stuff.
“It’s what people do to get out of recessions that is good for gold. The metal survived the 2001 recession well because (former Federal Reserve Bank chairman) Alan Greenspan was very quick on the reflation side.”
Murenbeeld highlighted the current reflationary measures being taken by the United States and other major economies and commented, “global money and fiscal reflation will remain necessary for years to come even after the current global financial crisis.
“That’s because of the social promises made by governments to the ‘baby boomer’ generation which is about to retire. Printing money is good for gold and governments’ choices for debt reduction are limited. “
Turning to the role of the world’s central banks – which at times have been heavy sellers of gold – Murenbeeld commented, “I sense central bank attitudes to gold are changing and they no longer view it as inherited nuclear waste.
“I feel central banks are getting religion again and I don’t think they will be as negative on gold as they have been in the past.”
Murenbeeld concluded, “we are in an uptrend. I am absolutely convinced of that but developments might not take place as fast as you might want.
“It is normal in a cyclical, long-term uptrend that you could have one or even two years of counter-trend movements. It could take a while before the previous peak gold price of $1,030/oz gets taken out.”
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My prediction ??? ....... uh oh .....
we gunna have the biggest 1-2 day fall we ever seen
we gunna have the biggest 1-2 day fall we ever seen
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Stocks To Open Flat As President Obama Fails To Inspire Equity Traders
Wednesday, 25 February 2009 12:57:53 GMT
Written by John Rivera, Analyst
U.S. equity futures spent most the overnight session flat after yesterday’s bounce on the back of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony. The central bank head eliminated fears that the government would nationalize troubled banks, which has been weighing on the markets. Traders were hoping that President Obama in his first formal address to Congress would give more details pertaining to the course of action for the banking system. The president did pledge to do what was needed to reignite lending to consumers and businesses. However, he also spoke of more regulation for the financial markets which will not be welcomed news on the street. We could further clarification of the governments intentions in the upcoming days which could help build on yesterday’s rally. In the meantime Fed Chairman Bernanke will continue his testimony today which may help ease concerns further. The existing home sales report is expected to show a slight increase in purchases in January for a consecutive month. Yet, the number remains near all-time lows and will be an example of how much further the market needs to go before it is deemed healthy again.
Dow Jones 7350.94
The DJIA saw across the board gains yesterday led by a 11.3% increase from financials, which could lead to a retrace today as concerns over the sector linger.
NASDAQ 1441.83
The Nasdaq rose nearly 4% as tech stocks regained their favor with traders rising nearly 4% on the day. The sector is still viewed as the best positioned to take advantage of a rebound but its solid balance sheets also offers protection if the downturn continues.
S&P 500 773.14
The S&P 500 bounced from its November lows on the back of an 11.6% gain in financials. An improvement in existing home sales could help lift the broader index today as increasing demand will help boost home prices which have fallen by 18.5% which was the highest amount on record.
Current Snap Shot
Wednesday, 25 February 2009 12:57:53 GMT
Written by John Rivera, Analyst
U.S. equity futures spent most the overnight session flat after yesterday’s bounce on the back of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony. The central bank head eliminated fears that the government would nationalize troubled banks, which has been weighing on the markets. Traders were hoping that President Obama in his first formal address to Congress would give more details pertaining to the course of action for the banking system. The president did pledge to do what was needed to reignite lending to consumers and businesses. However, he also spoke of more regulation for the financial markets which will not be welcomed news on the street. We could further clarification of the governments intentions in the upcoming days which could help build on yesterday’s rally. In the meantime Fed Chairman Bernanke will continue his testimony today which may help ease concerns further. The existing home sales report is expected to show a slight increase in purchases in January for a consecutive month. Yet, the number remains near all-time lows and will be an example of how much further the market needs to go before it is deemed healthy again.
Dow Jones 7350.94
The DJIA saw across the board gains yesterday led by a 11.3% increase from financials, which could lead to a retrace today as concerns over the sector linger.
NASDAQ 1441.83
The Nasdaq rose nearly 4% as tech stocks regained their favor with traders rising nearly 4% on the day. The sector is still viewed as the best positioned to take advantage of a rebound but its solid balance sheets also offers protection if the downturn continues.
S&P 500 773.14
The S&P 500 bounced from its November lows on the back of an 11.6% gain in financials. An improvement in existing home sales could help lift the broader index today as increasing demand will help boost home prices which have fallen by 18.5% which was the highest amount on record.
Current Snap Shot
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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CFD Trader this relates to this thread how??
Stop spewing out this It is of ZERO value.
Stop spewing out this
It is of ZERO value.
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How many prediction threads do we need ?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12771
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12771
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My prediction ??? ....... uh oh .....
we gunna have the biggest 1-2 day fall we ever seen
And i predict the market will bounce to such a point that we will wonder what we were worrying about.
Conversely you could also say we havent seen the lowest low yet either.
You know i am right, just dont ask me to put a date on it.
I have learned one thing for sure in the last 18 months. Brokers, analysts and the financial press are clueless. Brokers do what they are paid to do, Analysts only see what a copmpany board is prepared to show them what is going on within a comapny so the real skeletons and or positives are left to the few at the top of the tree and the press needs no comment as they are purely a historical resource and i pity anyone who uses them for a future reference to anything.
