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Predictions for 2009

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Dowdy

Dowdy

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My predictions for 2009


Mining stocks will keep dropping til March-June (except gold).
Agriculture stocks will go up alot in 09
Whichever clean energy the government will choose (solar, wave, wind etc) will go up heaps.
The US will be in unofficial depression (took them almost a year to admit recession)
The AU dollar will go past 1:1 with the US dollar (mainly due to a weak US dollar)


anyone else wanna go
 
Ok -

We will be worrying about inflation, not deflation, at this time next year.
Gold above $1500 AUD.
Oil at $80 to $90 per barrel.
Malcolm Turnbull will be ousted by Peter Costello.
Warnie in the Ashes squad (I wish).
Interest rates above 6%.
 
Shares will have another leg down, but bottom in the 2nd quarter

Houses will bottom around final quarter 2009, but will not rise again until at least 2011

We will have our first rate rise from an OCR of 300bp in the final quarter of the year

Unemployment will peak in the final quarter 2009, between 8 and 9%

Oil will rise from current levels, but will probably stabilise around the $70-80 mark

The AUD will meet parity or exceed the USD, but still be significantly weak against the Yen and Euro.
 
Well I have a different view. I think we will see a market rally feb through May to about 10.5K in the DOW and 4,300 ASX followed by a significant decline to below levels today by end of Oct. IMO house prices in Australia will have accelerated declines of about 30 to 35% on present depressed prices and not recover for a minimum of 5 years if not longer. I tip unemployment to hit 9% by year end and stabalise at this level with the USA sinking into a depression like state towards the end of q3. Finally I see the $A at about US.75c most of the year with oil at US$75 by end of q2 and holding.:rolleyes:
 
Bushman said:
Ok -

We will be worrying about inflation, not deflation, at this time next year.
Gold above $1500 AUD.
Oil at $80 to $90 per barrel.
Malcolm Turnbull will be ousted by Peter Costello.
Warnie in the Ashes squad (I wish).
Interest rates above 6%.
Click to expand...

I'm reading Security Analysis, and what I find interesting is the perception that rampant inflation was always just around the corner, but never actually eventuated.

I think we'll roll over starting in January, hit about 2800 on the index, and do some funny things from there.

And a hell of a lot of takeover action to continue within the gas and energy sectors...
 
chops_a_must said:
I'm reading Security Analysis, and what I find interesting is the perception that rampant inflation was always just around the corner, but never actually eventuated.
Click to expand...

Not expecting hyperinflation in 2009 - there is a fairly large hole to be filled in the banking system before any of the cash will 'hit' Main Streets across the world. But as convention tells us, prices will rise to meet money supply and the bail out in the US alone is likely to tick over $1.5trillion now.

But we will see. It is just one big confidence trick being played on us after all with the intention to stop people saving cash and start people investing in 'inflation hedges' and buying stuff. Off course, you need inflation for this to happen as folks tend to buy gold and stuff cash in matresses during a depression. So given all this I predict we will inflate but, as 2008 has well and truely proven, waddafaaark do I or anyone else know in this brave new investment world :D

All I do know is that unlike the GD, the modern markets are like a school of whitebait and will turn rapidly!

As for the ASX, I have tipped a bottom in June 2009 elsewhere so I concur that we will test the November lows at sometime at the end first quarter before the bottom is in.
 
:)

Hi folks,

WPL in 2009 ..... expecting some big winners in the oil sector,
in the coming year, but January 2009 may bring some negative
surprises for some oilers ... most notably WPL, particularly around:

02-05012009 ... negative news expected

07012009 ... minor and positive cycle

16-23012009 ... 3 significant time cycles to bring
negative news for WPL ..... ???

STU will be another oiler that may suffer, with the cycles
detailed, above.

Soon after, STO and STX will also suffer, as several negative
time cycles come into play, between 23012009 and 20022009.

More later.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====
 
Rampant deflation all year.
ASX below 2500 by June.
BHP trading under $18.
AUD below .50 USD.
Massive loses in the Australian banking sector.
Official unemployment over 10%.
RBA cash rate at 3%.
Gold below USD$600.
Housing price averages down by 20%.
I will win my fantasy football comp.
 
2009 will be remembered as the year US consumers started for filling the paradox of thrift holding the US economy down through to 2011 to complete the 1st great depression of the new century

Other than that everything is just gunna be great:D:D
 
I enjoyed this when I read it. We can predict we've turned a corner when the media tells us so (about 6 months after it happens) and then we will all rush off in the opposite direction.

Noel Whittaker
December 14, 2008 12:00am

AUSTRALIANS should be the luckiest people on Earth. Taxes have been slashed year after year, interest rates have dropped and petrol prices are tumbling.

It all means a lot more money in our pockets, yet the world financial crisis is still casting shadows of gloom – now there is even talk of recession.

Fortunately the Government has responded quickly to the threat, but the abrupt change in direction has left many people confused. A year ago we were being urged to cut our spending and save – now we are being urged to spend. What's it all about?

The key factor here is what economists call the multiplier effect, and the story of the young architect who had just won a big contract explains it beautifully.

He took himself off to his favourite restaurant to celebrate, but, as he sat down, saw a newspaper on the next table – the headline was "Depression predicted".

He got such a shock that he cancelled his meal. When the proprietor asked the reason for the sudden change of heart he replied: "Look at the headline – there is a depression coming. I had better save my money".

The restaurant owner was so surprised that he rang his wife immediately and said, "There's a depression coming. Cancel that new dress you have ordered".

The wife promptly telephoned the dress shop owner and told her that she had to cancel the order because there was a depression on the way.

Naturally this worried the shop owner and, after a quick discussion with her husband, she decided to cancel the building contract for the planned extensions to the dress shop.

She rang the builder to pass on the bad news and the builder immediately decided to cancel all the jobs he had planned for the next year.

His first call was to the young architect, who had started all this off, to tell him his services were no longer required because "a depression is coming".

Bitterly disappointed, the young man slunk back to the restaurant to drown his sorrows. This time he was in no hurry and picked up the paper that was still lying there.

To his amazement he discovered it was an old paper dated 20 years ago and had been left there by a previous customer who had found it when he was cleaning out old boxes. The "depression" had all been in the young man's mind, but its effects were as real as if the paper had been printed yesterday.
Click to expand...
 
Dowdy said:
My predictions for 2009
Whichever clean energy the government will choose (solar, wave, wind etc) will go up heaps.
Click to expand...

Hello...the govt has already chosen cleaner energy, as in energy that emits less GHG's than currently emitted.

And they didn't go up heaps...actually went down. :rolleyes:
 

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