Predicting volume one day ahead

Gringotts Bank said:

tech, I'd like to be able to predict when tomorrow's volume has a high probability of being +50% on today's volume. Intention would be to trade intra-day, soon after open on a select bunch of speccy stocks.

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rnr said:

Tech,

I think this is the question GB wants answered.

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I am interested in what you may find GB.

If volume is very likely to be down, then to my reckoning, CEO should go lower on Monday.

My whole thing centers around this: volume drives price more then price drives volume. So I want to predict volume in order to predict price. I think it works better that way.

Techa what do you reckon about kgl?

Broken out of a ling term down trend thrusday with lots of volune, friday died down on the volume but kept the price. More volume likely mon-tues or slow trading?

Been watching this one since 15-17c

rnr said:

Tech,

I think this is the question GB wants answered.

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Im aware of that.
Not every stock will give a definitive/tradable signal.
Personally I'd want a pretty clear signal to place my $s even on an intraday move.
I dont wish to guess or go by gut feel.
If the analysis isn't there I'm not going to manufacture it to support a gut feel or bias!

The other way to do it is to place a bid above the expected open and be taken out.
The analysis would then need to be along the lines of a sustained move.
As Im getting to in the TREND thread and probably more-so in what GG wants to do. POSITION SIZING is really important! Ill touch on that both here and over there when I get time--anyone got a spare week!

Back to the 4 in question

I wouldn't trade CEO
The analysis on the last few bars is a very strong reversal from the high.
While volume is high it is likely that there is still supply so a further fall is likely.It will steady but not a day trade.---or any other trade in the near future. (Seems I looked up COE in the first post!!!).

The rest are as I have stated.
Rather than expecting to find a way to predict the outcome of the next days trading on EVERY stock why not find a way to predict the next days trading of those charts which give a CLEAR indication.
Surely this puts the odds in your favor.

There are 100s of setups each day and not all setups are equal.

Often a lower time frame chart will help with confirmation of a daily trade setup and help with both timing and position sizing.

But I and you can still get your initial signals and analysis from EOD charts.

I've been away 7 weeks so haven't had a look at many charts.
Ill attempt to find a few which are relevant to NOW.

GG just saw your post and I agree largely to your observation---however there does come a time where price will influence both SUPPLY and DEMAND.

The chicken--volume is likely to come before the Egg---Price.
Ill see what I can find in view of your post.

With regard to COE
volume will be down but that means Supply is slowing.
If it stops then price could rise on low volume.If it does it wont be a lot ---in the rise.
Its just not one that screams---buy me!

KGL
Exhaustion was very clear on 29/6.
That was the time to buy---for a short term trade or a sit and forget.
Any buying now is into consolidation.
These long down moves aren't generally supportive of a "V" bottom like reversal in an up move.
The longer term struggle of accumulation over bottom distribution needs time to develop.
Patience is not often a traders strong point---it should be----its less expensive than IMPULSE!

Thanx tech, shows how much more I need to learn. Out of the trade basket into the investment basket for kgl

againsthegrain said:

Out of the trade basket into the investment basket for kgl

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As a once graceful lady with political aspirations is known to have said "please explain"

Boggo said:

As a once graceful lady with political aspirations is known to have said "please explain"

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Well I just pretty much see KGL undervalued at under 10c which was the price when I asked tech about, it has now closed at 11c a nice 10 - 12% gain since I was contemplating on entering it as a quick trade, looking for 7- 10 % gain but I missed out. Also didn't end up going in as a longer investment as didn't expect it to break the 10c this quick after tech's tip. Oh well as a trade I missed it, as a investment there will be plenty more opportunities in the future.

Sorry I forgot about this thread.
AED
I posted up as it flew.
TVN
I posted on the sister thread to this.

Both Flew.

Ill try to point them out as I find them.
With some commentary.
I tend to hold longer than a day.

Yes I saw that the stocks you posted did fly, also CEO didn't do bad. As a matter of fact I have bought into another stock that you spoke positively of on another thread, will give it a week and see how it goes. As you said traders are not good with patience and lately I have not been a good investor, so not even sure if I would of have held onto KGL for that whole week