Potential swing trades

[stevo58]

Win some, lose some.
Your timing was a bit unfortunate with USDCAD Steve, since you came in near the end of the trend.
That pair is now in the early stages of a new uptrend and there should soon be opportunities on the long side if the trend keeps going.
Patience is the name of the game.....sit and wait for the setups to come to you. When they do, stack the odds in your favour by controlling the losses and letting the profits run.
It's difficult not to make money if you keep doing that consistently.

Hi Bunyip,

Yeah no big deal really. I seem to have been a little late to the party on a few of the recent trends and there appears to be some consolidation at the moment. The fact is that I've only taken a couple of losses and had a number of break-even trades, well I'm pretty sure I'm gonna capture a trend shortly which should pay for all. I'm currently in the EUR/JPY, was up about 1R but prices are consolidating again, stop is at breakeven so a free trade, if we can get above the resistance at the 136 level we're away. I suppose good trends don't look back.

Thanks for the candlestick charts, after reading Nison's book well you're dead right we only need to concentrate on a couple of patterns and not their proximity to Support/Resistance levels. A nice say Shooting Star pattern onto a resistance level looks to be a great setup. Also a Shooting Star as the TKO bar is the one I'm looking for. Like you say most of this game is patience, waiting for the A+ setups. Looking for the inevitable breakout and pause to get the equity curve going.

Hi Grep,

Good to hear that things are working. 23 losses in a row, that is impressive. But like you say killing those losers skews the average loss so when the winners come around all is paid for. Are you trading a totally mechanical system? What sort of time frame do you use?

Cheers,

Steve

 

[Grep]

Hi Grep,

Good to hear that things are working. 23 losses in a row, that is impressive. But like you say killing those losers skews the average loss so when the winners come around all is paid for. Are you trading a totally mechanical system? What sort of time frame do you use?

Cheers,

Steve

Its not a mechanical system.I look for patterns based on the PPS system, which is a book that I read many years ago.I only trade futures so its pretty easy to scan the 30 odd markets that I trade for setups.Takes about 10 minutes or so to do manually.I trade daily bars end-of day only.This is why I was attracted to this thread.

I have been a long time lurker on this forum, but its all really about stocks and I gave up on trading stocks with daily bars.

I have done a lot of computer backtesting of various mechanical systems for futures, but none of them really appeal to me.In fact most of them have really struggled over the past few years,but trend following is like that.

I think I see what you mean by skewing the average loss.Of those 23 losses, quite a few were break even or near break even trades so no big deal.I have a no risk trade running on the EUR/USD now ( theoretical no risk, a gap might spoil my day !)My win/loss ratio is more important to me than my win percentage, although it can get frustrating at times.

I am contstantly tracking my expectancy and performance ratio (win % * win/loss , Kennith L Grant, Trading Risk,Enhanced Profitability Through Risk Control ) These are the things that are important.

 

[bunyip]

Its not a mechanical system.I look for patterns based on the PPS system, which is a book that I read many years ago.I only trade futures so its pretty easy to scan the 30 odd markets that I trade for setups.Takes about 10 minutes or so to do manually.I trade daily bars end-of day only.This is why I was attracted to this thread.

.

So Grep, is PPS the only system you trade?

On this forum is a thread called 'PPS Trading System by Curtis Arnold' - worth a look if you haven't already seen it.

 

[sammy84]

Sorry I thought I should stop lurking on this thread as well. This is my favourite thread on ASF at the moment. I have just read Dave Landry's book, it was good read, thanks for putting it out there bunyip. I currently also trade Curtis Arnold's PPS system, using it primarily on stocks. I am however looking at testing Dave's TKO system. I'm also currently looking at using the TKO in conjunction with PPS to provide more pyramid opportunities, as with PPS sometimes pyramid chances can be few and far between. I'll let you know how it goes

 

[bunyip]

Sorry I thought I should stop lurking on this thread as well. This is my favourite thread on ASF at the moment. I have just read Dave Landry's book, it was good read, thanks for putting it out there bunyip. I currently also trade Curtis Arnold's PPS system, using it primarily on stocks. I am however looking at testing Dave's TKO system. I'm also currently looking at using the TKO in conjunction with PPS to provide more pyramid opportunities, as with PPS sometimes pyramid chances can be few and far between. I'll let you know how it goes

G'day Sammy

Which one of Landry's books did you read?

 

[sammy84]

The one you mentioned earlier in this thread. 'Dave Landry on Swing Trading'. It was a good read, kept it simple and straight to the point. I am exploring alot of his ideas, however I am also trying to minimise his use of indicators and MA's, they seem a little over done on occassions

 

[bunyip]

The one you mentioned earlier in this thread. 'Dave Landry on Swing Trading'. It was a good read, kept it simple and straight to the point. I am exploring alot of his ideas, however I am also trying to minimise his use of indicators and MA's, they seem a little over done on occassions

From memory his only indicator was ADX. He no longer uses it, reckons (correctly) that it's too slow to recognise a decent trend.

 

[sammy84]

From memory his only indicator was ADX. He no longer uses it, reckons (correctly) that it's too slow to recognise a decent trend.

Ok that helps, because from what I read he was using the ADX as a pre-cursor to defining the trend, and thereby whether to take the trade. I have never looked at the ADX with great detail so it threw me off a little. I also find his 3 MA's a little clumsy, maybe its just me getting my head around it. Nonetheless it is a great book and a true proponent of the KISS principle

 

[Grep]

So Grep, is PPS the only system you trade?
On this forum is a thread called 'PPS Trading System by Curtis Arnold' - worth a look if you haven't already seen it.

Hi Bunyip,
Well I do trade a long term weekly bars system on stocks in my SMSF, but that has hold periods of many months and its completely mechanical,long only.

In my day to day trading yes PPS is pretty much it, however I also look for breakouts from tight congestions of a range which isn't really part of PPS.

I have read through the old PPS thread on this board, pretty interesting.It seems as though its a method more popular than I thought.

 

[bunyip]

Hi Bunyip,


In my day to day trading yes PPS is pretty much it, however I also look for breakouts from tight congestions of a range which isn't really part of PPS.

.

But aren't these tight consolidation patterns part of PPS? Or are we talking about two different patterns?

Curtis Arnold calls them rectangles, defines them as having at least four points, with five to seven points not unusual.

He trades them as trend continuation patterns. His research found that.....

* Downtrends contained 59% of rectangles - 75% of which were followed by a continuation of the downtrend.

* Uptrends contained 41% of rectangles - 86% of which were followed by a continuation of the uptrend.

I've found them to be good patterns in Forex. But I don't get too particular about the definition.....any tight consolidation pattern of three to seven days of sideways price action is good enough - they're likely to be followed by a strong surge in the direction of the trend.

 

[Grep]

But aren't these tight consolidation patterns part of PPS? Or are we talking about two different patterns?

Curtis Arnold calls them rectangles, defines them as having at least four points, with five to seven points not unusual.

He trades them as trend continuation patterns. His research found that.....

* Downtrends contained 59% of rectangles - 75% of which were followed by a continuation of the downtrend.

* Uptrends contained 41% of rectangles - 86% of which were followed by a continuation of the uptrend.

I've found them to be good patterns in Forex. But I don't get too particular about the definition.....any tight consolidation pattern of three to seven days of sideways price action is good enough - they're likely to be followed by a strong surge in the direction of the trend.

Hi Bunyip,

Its been a long long time since I read the book ! so I stand corrected.
I do remember that it was the triangle pattern that I began with and his trade management methods that really got me interested.Many of these simple patterns are mentioned in a lot of TA books, however PPS really makes the difference in the trade management of them.

I agree that I also dont get too worried about getting exact patten formations and the tight ranges,congestion patterns that you posted are the sort of thing that I am talking about.