Posting my trades on charts: Open to discussion and ideas

[PPC NO 1]

It's a winning trade, so that's good, but is it a good trade?
That depends on the trading plans of the poster. Was the setup perfect? Was the position sized correctly? Did they follow their trade management guidelines? We need to know lots of things before we can judge if it's a good trade or not.

IMO Jens shouldn't care what others think about his/her trading. Jens should be judging his/her own performance. I'd like to see what Jens thinks after every trade is posted. I want to see completed trades rated at least 9/10 including winning and losing trades.

I can be critical of the risk/reward that I see it the trade. The risk was approx 22pips. The reward was (0.5*10) +(0.5*22) = 16pips. This RR needs a W% of 58% to break-even and 70% for a modest (0.2) edge. Is the trader that good? I doubt it.

Starting trades with small risk sizes before major news is a losing strategy. Don't do it.

I'd like to see the trader trade one or two setups only, multiple times and comment on his/her trade management after the entry. I like to see consistency in every aspect from the trader.

Posting is a good opportunity to show what you know and ask about what you don't. Even the frequency of the posts should be consistent. Is the trader trading every evening? If so, there should be both winning and losing trades every evening. Don't select an occasional winning trade and post it.

Jens, it's up to you to make the most from this thread you've started.

Hi Peter
I've been trading forex for around 3 years (still a struggling trader) and I'm embarrassed to say that I didn't know exactly how to calculate the reward in pips if there were 2 target profits. So thank you for sharing your tips. I have one more question. Can you please show me how you calculate the minimum W% required just to get to BE? Thank you, Peter.

 

[peter2]

It starts with the basic calculation of expectancy (or edge).

Expectancy = (W% * AW) - (L% * AL)

W% is % winning trades, L% is % losing trades, AW is average win, AL is average loss

Re-arranging the formula results in this;

W% = (1+E) / (1 + AW/AL)

At break-even our E = 0 and if our AW/AL = 16/22 = 0.73

The W% required to BE is 1 / 1.73 = 0.578 or 58%

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The W% required to make 0.2 (20% of every dollar risked) with the same AW/AL (0.73) is:

W% = (1+0.2) / (1+0.73) = 0.693 or 69%
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All new traders should start with goals of trying to get their AW/AL as high as they can (at least >2/1). Then look at their W% and try to improve that. It's been my experience that it's easier to improve my edge by allowing the average AW/AL to get bigger.

ps: My apologies to the maths purists if my algebra isn't exactly correct.

 

[Jens]

No trades on Monday. Two trades last night. One good and one bad. End result BE

 

[AussieMatt]

No trades on Monday. Two trades last night. One good and one bad. End result BEView attachment 62481View attachment 62482

Hey jens, just a few ideas on the first trade. price is consolidating and the Bearish outside bar is being played from a support/resistance flip of the midpoint of consolidation. If that is the idea (that support is flipping) you could have gotten out of this with a smaller loss in my opinion. If I were to play a midpoint like this I would be more aggressive with managing risk as opposed to playing a breakout of a range where you have the entire consolidation to your back and a stronger case for it to hold.

 

[Jens]

Hey jens, just a few ideas on the first trade. price is consolidating and the Bearish outside bar is being played from a support/resistance flip of the midpoint of consolidation. If that is the idea (that support is flipping) you could have gotten out of this with a smaller loss in my opinion. If I were to play a midpoint like this I would be more aggressive with managing risk as opposed to playing a breakout of a range where you have the entire consolidation to your back and a stronger case for it to hold.

I totally agree and appreciate your feedback

 

[Jens]

I can be critical of the risk/reward that I see it the trade. The risk was approx 22pips. The reward was (0.5*10) +(0.5*22) = 16pips. This RR needs a W% of 58% to break-even and 70% for a modest (0.2) edge. Is the trader that good? I doubt it.

My risk/reward is often 1:1 That probably will make some of you :frown:

Posting is a good opportunity to show what you know and ask about what you don't. Even the frequency of the posts should be consistent. Is the trader trading every evening? If so, there should be both winning and losing trades every evening. Don't select an occasional winning trade and post it.

I watch the market, but it is not everyday that I actually end up taking a trade.
I intend to post all my trades.

 

[Jens]

A trade from within the last 1-2 hours

 

[Jens]

My trade from yesterday

 

[Jens]

My trade from this morning

 

[Jens]

My trade from this morning

I forgot to mark my entry on the chart above

 

[peter2]

Hi Jens, I notice that your entry and iSL prices are wrong. I'm trying to check if you really are going for 1:1.
No evidence of that yet.

 

[Jens]

Hi Jens, I notice that your entry and iSL prices are wrong. I'm trying to check if you really are going for 1:1.
No evidence of that yet.

That was a typo on the GBPAUD, sorry

Entry 1.9536
SL 1.9495

 

[Jens]

Trade from Monday night 11 May 2015 - my only trade so far this week

 

[Jens]

A trade from last night (Thursday). This is my 2nd trade for the week.

 

[peter2]

Nice analysis using the range. You framed a solid setup and reasonable R:R. However you didn't allow your trade to get to your target.

I hope you are keeping notes of how many times you're being hit when you move your stop up to BE on the remaining parcel. After 20 - 30 trades you will know if moving the stop up quickly is costing you money.

 

[Jens]

Nice analysis using the range. You framed a solid setup and reasonable R:R. However you didn't allow your trade to get to your target.

I hope you are keeping notes of how many times you're being hit when you move your stop up to BE on the remaining parcel. After 20 - 30 trades you will know if moving the stop up quickly is costing you money.

I went through a period where I was struggling to get to my TP and a profit turned into a loss too many times.
At the moment I am trying to play it safe.

 

[cynic]

Nice analysis using the range. You framed a solid setup and reasonable R:R. However you didn't allow your trade to get to your target.

I hope you are keeping notes of how many times you're being hit when you move your stop up to BE on the remaining parcel. After 20 - 30 trades you will know if moving the stop up quickly is costing you money.

If Jens was trading a more transparent market, I'd be inclined to agree with you.

However, after years of experience trading synthetic instruments, I've observed pricing behaviours that strongly suggested my conditional orders were influencing the price action!!!

When people express the intention to trade synthetic market instruments (i.e. OTC CFDs and Forex currency pairs) I generally encourage them to avoid placement of stop orders. Instead, I suggest they actively monitor their positions with a view to manually exiting upon breach of their predetermined SL level.

 

[Jens]

My trade from last night

 

[skyQuake]

My trade from last night
View attachment 62640

That GBPUSD trade - are you scalping or holding for bigger moves?

And my 2c: You're judging the trade by the result - should have held/sold for x etc
When you should judge it by your adhesion to your initial plan.

 

[Jens]

That GBPUSD trade - are you scalping or holding for bigger moves?

And my 2c: You're judging the trade by the result - should have held/sold for x etc
When you should judge it by your adhesion to your initial plan.

Hi there
My trades will generally get me anything from 5-50 pips (mostly at the low end).
I will start to scale out, based on the behaviour at the time and where the support/resistance levels are.
I do prefer to be in and out quickly, otherwise I will generally start to question the validity of my initial setup.
I missed the fast moves last night, which "should have" gained more pips.