Positive expectancy & Discretionary trades

[tech/a]

I understand the bankroll size bit but if a gumby like me (with relative peanuts) can make 35 k in three months and + 10 k in a trading session on two occasions, then this is evidence to me that anything is possible. The sky is the limit?

If not, where are the boundaries or limitations? The circumstances or the individual? Why can this not be repeated? Is it luck? Maximising return is the goal so it can be done.

Anything is possible it can be seen time and again.
Your figures are way way off a million.
Money makes money and few understand the concept even though its bandied around.

There are boundaries both individual and circumstantial.
IT (regular good profits) can be repeated and so can extended losses.
Is it luck.
Its been my experience that the life changing occurences in life are indeed luck.
Luck that you placed yourself in a position with enough to make a dramatic difference.

Many watched the housing boom---some bought an IP
Very few bought 10 or more!
Same with Gold many saw and participated but few (That I know of) with 500K or more.
And so it goes on.
If you had 10x your trade capital your 10k in a session would be 100k your $35k--- $350k---very very different.If you get my drift.

 

[tech/a]

If someone is using discretionary techniques to trade, how do they know if they have a positive expectancy? I'm thinking that they get on a simulator, practice their technique to ensure that they generate money, and then apply the same technique to the real market.
Does this mean that when the market changes, your technique will have to change and you'll have to get on a simulator again?
Is there any other way besides this to check for positive expectancy?

Cheers.

PS: I have been out of the "trading game" for some time, so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question

This question doesnt seem to have been correctly addressed.

HOW?

Going over your trades over a period of time you would want to see
(1) More winning trades than losing trades resulting in profit
OR
(2) Larger winning trades than the total of all losing trades.

From here you can calculate the "expectancy" for every dollar invested in the method you are trading in a discretionary manner.
You could do this after every closed trade.

 

[skyQuake]

Anything is possible it can be seen time and again.
Your figures are way way off a million.
Money makes money and few understand the concept even though its bandied around.

There are boundaries both individual and circumstantial.
IT (regular good profits) can be repeated and so can extended losses.
Is it luck.
Its been my experience that the life changing occurences in life are indeed luck.
Luck that you placed yourself in a position with enough to make a dramatic difference.

Many watched the housing boom---some bought an IP
Very few bought 10 or more!
Same with Gold many saw and participated but few (That I know of) with 500K or more.
And so it goes on.
If you had 10x your trade capital your 10k in a session would be 100k your $35k--- $350k---very very different.If you get my drift.

Just like to add that the bigger the line you swing, the more difficult it is to trade with decent size. Make 20% of 10k? Easy, buy a breakout on a 10c speccie. 20% of a mil? You cant put it all into that speccie anymore.
Liquidity constraints.

 

[tech/a]

Just like to add that the bigger the line you swing, the more difficult it is to trade with decent size. Make 20% of 10k? Easy, buy a breakout on a 10c speccie. 20% of a mil? You cant put it all into that speccie anymore.
Liquidity constraints.

Yes very true Sky.
50-100% looks spectacular and can be done on individual trades even portfolios but do it on 500K plus is an entirely different matter.

If your a Futures genius then all your liquidity issues disappear.!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thanks a million tech/a for your invaluable contributions. Happy New Year.

 

[lindsayf]

Last 2 mths only trading the FTSE Futures
Only one contract a discretionary method which to be honest is based on VSA clear buy and sell. I usually set a buy and when triggered a sell (Short or long) and go do something else---walk/tea/TV.

I close out before I go to bed if not already closed before Which I am now.
Values are in Pounds = $1.68.

Will get serious one day but great interest and fun.
Could refine much more but enjoy my own time at the expense of some profit and loss.
I like to shorten the risk by moving the stop up if Im watching if not its is no more than 10 pips wide if I cant get a trade under that then I wont take it.
Blah blah.

Hi Techa

How are you going with this? Are you planning to go for multiple contracts this year? I'm interested to know what your profit factor is for this method, just to compare to my own single contract trading.

thks