Positions updates

[Sean K]

Hi Gurgler, No haven't been there. Just investing in stocks and trading Gold through IG Markets. 'Great Pig' does invest in GOLD though and I think he assumes it pretty much moves with POG. Perhaps you could send him a PM, or post in the Gold thread to get some feedback? Cheers, kennas

 

[Sean K]

LGL has been punished dramatically for a 7% downgrade in gold production this year due to lower grades.

I don't think I've EVER seen them bring out an upgrade and I've held this for 10 years. LOL

Anyway, topped up a few at $3.53 on what I think is a kneejerk. Should be technical support around the previous sticking point ar 3.60 ish.

 

[So_Cynical]

Ive only held for 6 months..and have to agree, the usual over reaction presents a buying op...cept ive got no money.

 

[Sean K]

Bought more KMN this morning at 70.5 equiv. 10% sell off on the poor market performance is an opportunity IMO. I think longer term picking this up under a MC under $500m is a good opportunity.

 

[Sean K]

Topped up a few yesterday which was premature and bought some more this morning. Hope the knife isn't too sharp.


PS, looks like $3.25 may be support but I wouldn't discount further weakness along with the rest of the market. Some more risk looks to being factored in now.

I've got no idea how much further the XAO could go, but I do know that long term the market goes UP!

On this chart, if the market does go lower and BMN push through $3.25, then the last peaks could be a double top and it could possibly be headed to the target which is also good support.

 

[Sean K]

Hooly dooly, got punished for the in line with market expectations JORC at Kalman. Bashed back to under 60. Ouch, ouch, ouch. Back in the red on KMN. I'm re-evaluating Kalman now, it's about a quarter of what I was expecting it to have the potential for.

 

[Sean K]

Whooohooo!!!

Bloody hell, lucky I have these in the portfolio and have added on weakness. NCM up 10% yesty on POG gains and rumours of that takeover being mooted for the past 38 years.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

In hinesight I wish I had have added more than I did to these but I am still into the margin loan so best to play a bit safer in this environment I suppose.

 

[Sean K]

Dear Dudley,

I have just a few points regarding your communication with the market.

1. Why have you continuously advised the market that San Anton has a JORC resource of 10.19 m oz au equiv only to have the scoping study come out with an in pit resource of only 8.5 m oz au equiv?

2. Why have you advised the market that the initial JORC for Kalman would be based on 1000m strike length to a drilling depth of 700m and a density factor of 2.5 only to produce a JORC obviously based on much much different numbers? By your announcements these figures should produce
1000 x 700 x 90 x 2.5 = 175Mt. Not 49.7Mt....

3. Why have you advised over the past 6 months that you were analysing past results at Kalman for Rhenium and other metals but have only been able to release a handful of Re lab results?

4. What happened to Kalman being a polymetallic deposit containing high grades of U3O8? There in NO U mentioned in the intial JORC....

5. Why have you continued to advise the market that Mt Philp is a haematite deposit of a strike length of 4km when you have not released any drilling results for this deposit?

6. Why have you advised the market that additional drill rigs would be on site at Mt Isa to further explore the region and drill out Kalman, only to have them not appear? I would be very interested to know if the diamond rig you promised to be on deck in Dec 07 actually turned up and is drilling as promised?

7. Where are the 'pending' assay results from extention drilling at S d G advised in the Sep 07 Qtly?

8. Where are the assays advised to be pending from regional exploration at San Anton advised in the June 07 Qtly?

You seem to be clearly misinforming the market on the ongoings of your company and I think ASIC would be well interested in these short commings.

Yours sincerely,
kennas

 

[Sean K]

Looks to be heading back to the 3.25 support and double top territory. With the RIO rumours of taking Exemplar I doubt it, but market girations could take it down.

 

[Sean K]

I've tipped this in the 2008 comp run by Yogi, pretty much based solely on it's low, low, market cap, and a piece of ground that has some Mo, Re and U on it.

They've recently had some dramas with their directors and two were canned. Seems these two (geos) didn't think they should continue to drill for Moly while the others (punters) seem to think they should. Weight of numbers went with the punters.

This doesn't sound like a very good basis for a stock pick, but just going on the tight share registry and low shares on offer, any good results at Minnie Springs could make this move considerably.

I'm currently looking into it in more detail and waiting for clearer direction in the markets before taking a punt. And at this stage, it clearly would be a punt!

 

[Sean K]

Take 10% of that as an indicative value to their sp and that's a MC of $5.6b on one of their projects.

Current MC about $20m.

A little bit of upside to go perhaps.

(wish I was holding more options)

 

[Sean K]

Oppies up 177%.

he, he, he, he, he, he

Will probably gap up tomorrow and then pump and dump HC traders will take it down.....aaarrrgggghhh!

 

[Sean K]

With this jittery market I've decided to sell a few HLX and cashed in all EXM.

Not saying either of those won't keep running it's just that I'm about $60K into the margin loan at the moment, which in the scheme of things isn't much, but I'm wanting to clear the loan completely over the coming weeks to remain debt free during the US recession, and be ready for opportunites.

Not sure which of the stocks I'm going to sell down. I'm way overweight BMN so I might take a few there. If KMN rallies (doubtful) I might take a few off there too. Currently down 20% on that woofer but it's very hard for me to see 50 ish cents broken on a peer comparison just on San Anton project.

Might take some MAKO off the table, but after confirming $56b IGV in the Rock Phos, the sp could go anywhere...

Stocks I probably won't take profits on atm are LGL and NCM as I am pretty sure the US is going to continue to lower rates further tanking the USD even further. If anything, I'd like to free up cash to buy more of these on dips without using the ML.

 

[Sean K]

Just as I suspected, bloody HC pump and dumpers!!!!!!

Oppies went up another 30-40% on the open and I had something else on. Might have considered taking some profits if I had have been watching, but when I got to the screen they were only up 20%. So, just left them. Finished up 15%, over 190% in 2 days. Gotta be happy with that. Having said that, I expect more profit taking, but this could be the basis for a significant rerating while the Phos Project details get assimilated.

 

[Sean K]

MAKO up 20% this am on a blood soaked day, so good opportunity to take 1/3 off the table.

The market is pretty scary at the moment. Need to clear the Margin Loan. If wasn't for that, would be holding way long.

 

[Sean K]

...almost sell everything and wait for a 'bottom'...

Why do I keep hearing 'it's time in the market, not timing', ringing in my ears?

Is Buffett buying or selling I wonder?

Is it time to start using the margin loan to pick up some mum and dad blue chips?

Time to find some managed funds who's unit prices have come way off?

Or, just hybernate for a few months?

Greed and fear and greed and fear....

Aaaaagggghhhhhh!!!!!!!!!

 

[moneymajix]

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=80C18AD8-1871-E587-E1F4D6656A3268DF

 

[Sean K]

There's a probability of this going to $2.50 on the technicals, but getting this again under $3.00 is too good an opportunity IMO.

On the balance of the facts I have this should be worth $1b + going into production on peer comparisons and the scoping study.

 

[Sean K]

I've picked up a few NSL on the YT factor.

This is ultra spec so could go anywhere.

After taking some off the table with HLX and EXM I'm still drawn down a bit on the ML, but I'm now down to using 15% of the LVR, so all's cool. Actually, in a good position to take advantage of any relief rally.

Hopefully NSL come out with some surprises to the upside like additional project acquisitions...

 

[Sean K]

Chart looks a bit lopsided now since the fantastic performance of MAK. Only concern is KMN breaking significant support around 55 and I'm down 25%. Need to make a decision there. Looks like a tax loss for this year to me.

Managed funds are off about 10% from highs, just in front of market. Bloody Japan fund has been a killer. The past 2 years there been all this talk about the reemergence of Japan, but it's just been tanking.

In the past week:

Sold a third HLX at about 20% gain
Sold all EXM on about 5 % gain
Sold a third MAKO for 300% gain, now free carried on 500% gains at the minute.
Topped up BMN under $3.00
Bought NSL average $0.026

This week:

Looking at more BMN if market steadies and bounces off 5650 as I expect. This may equate to a bounce on BMN from the $2.50-2.75 area. Next resource upgrade due very shortly which will probably mean another sell off and depending on the results may be another opportunity. I'm expecting 100m lbs at 240 ish ppm. Anything over that and I'll buy more.
Trying to take some off KMN on strength but it's just a dog and keeps going down. Woof!
Looking at just a few % gain on NSL before I take some off. (if it goes up!)
MAK looks like it might be in the process of a massive rerating on it's Rock Phos potential. If the Flourite PFS comes out with 50Mt in the Qtly, would not be surprised for another kick! Happy to sit back on my holding there.
Where the hell is that NCM and LGL takeover!!!