Positions updates

[shag]

geez another blog
i was begining to think you'd forgoten u had a blog....
im not sure about telstra longterm as its likely to get broken by rudd like telecom nz.
dml finally came out with the announcement last week, after 6 weeks of abnormal trades.

 

[Sean K]

TLS is a grab the knife trade, and I've put quite a lot on it as I think it's a relatively slow mover. I'm still guessing that the last low was a capitulation low, but if defeated I'll be running to the hills, like everyone else probably will be. That'll be a good buying opportunity I suppose! LOL

 

[Miner]

Hi Sean

did you look into Silver Lake Resources currently at about 37 cents and recommended by State One Research as a target price of 67 cents. Eureka report published this story which is normally uncommon for them to do so.

What does your research say ?

Extracted from the report

Silver Lake Resources (SLR)
27th March 2009
SLR - Daily share price
0.12
0.17
0.22
0.27
0.32
0.37
0.42
27/03/2008
27/04/2008
27/05/2008
27/06/2008
27/07/2008
27/08/2008
27/09/2008
27/10/2008
27/11/2008
27/12/2008
27/01/2009
27/02/2009
27/03/2009
Investment Data SLR
Share Price (cents) 33
Ord Shares fully diluted (m) 153
Market Cap ($'m) 50.6
Enterprise Value ($'m) 39.6
Options (m) (ex avg +30c) 26.1
Net Cash ($’m) 11.0
52 week Low/High (cents) 15/41
Company Officers
Les Davis Managing Director
Paul Chapman Chairman
Chris Banasik Executive Director
Peter Johnston Non Exec Director
Brian Kennedy Non Exec Director
David Griffiths Non Exec Director
Major Shareholders
Directors 16.25%
Eye Investment Fund Ltd 9.87%
Perilya 8.38%
State One Stockbroking Ltd
Head Office
Level 14, State One House
172 St George's Terrace
Perth WA 6000
Perth Tel: (+61 8) 9288 3388
Sydney Tel: (+61 2) 9024 9105
Email: broker@stateone.com.au
Web: www.stateone.com.au
Analyst
Sam Berridge
Tel: +61 8 9288 3302
Email: sberridge@stateone.com.au
Investment Case
• Currently generating $1.5 to $2.0 million in free cash flow per month
from the Daisy Milano gold mine.
• Cash and bullion up from $6.7 million at 31st of Dec to approximately
$11 million at the time of writing.
• Forecast NPAT CY2009 of $21 million versus current enterprise value
of $39 million.
• Continued improvements at Daisy Milano Mine and Lakewood
Processing Facility to lower cash costs and increase gold production.
• Additional tonnes from open pit operations expected to commence in
the 2H 2009 will result in an increase in gold production to +50,000
ounces per annum and reduce cash costs from ~$680/oz to
~$570/oz.
• Under ground mining at Daisy Milano is currently occurring in regions
outside the existing resource, indicative of resource expansion
potential.
• Growing cash reserves could enable a maiden dividend in 2H 2009 at
management’s discretion.
• The performance of SLR’s management team is exemplified in
producing its first tonne of gold at a cash profit just 13 months after
IPO.
• Management results to date and prior experience support the
expectation that SLR will grow into a solid mid tier gold producer (see
page 6).
• SLR is unhedged.
Summary of Company Operations
SLR is producing 35,000 to 40,000 ounces of gold per annum from the
Daisy Milano underground mine, located 50km south east from Kalgoorlie.
High grade (~10g/t) ore is trucked 45km to the 300ktpa Lakewood gold
processing facility located 5km south east of Kalgoorlie.

 

[Sean K]

No, but will have a look. Cheers.

 

[shag]

jeez u'll be on the red after tls today, i guess rudd is either pragmatic or balless . u will be able to buy not only a new dive suit, but a whole dive store...

 

[Sean K]

LOL shag. Haven't put that much on it.

In regards to SLR Miner, just had a quick lookie and it looks pretty interesting. Cash in the bank, unheadged, no debt, growing base, processing factility, 1.4m oz au at great grades nothing to sneeze at. Would be nice if that 1.4m was all in the one pit. That's my only misgiving, very scattered about which they seem to think is a good thing. Spreads the risk a bit I suppose. $60m mc seems reasonably low, haven't done a peer comparison on that, but the graphs they put up in their last pres against other juniors in WA make them looks pretty good.

Will have to look some more..

 

[shag]

i suggest to have a look at tel, telecom nz, the graph of tens yrs over which it got competition and 'broken'. i realise yr trade is just a quick stab, so to speak. bmn still being chased hard.
really started hard at 2pm yeaterday.

 

[Sean K]

Well, sat on my hands this week. Boring.

Watched some value erode from a couple of stocks going through some consolidation, but at the moment happy to hold as the known funnymentals seem good.

Considering adding some more to BHP, SRL, BRM, and PRU (pending POG).

Also considering some of my 'Model Portfolio' stocks especially CBA, WBC, WOW, IPL, and either AOE or WPL.

US up over 3% today so perhaps that drop to 2800 isn't coming any time soon. May have missed the most of this opportunity unfortunately.

 

[shag]

i added a little brm and pru this week. offloaded the handful of ago, as it seems to be going nowhere.
im considering droppping the mak, as u say, its going sideways and its dodgy african escapade.
ext was dumped seriously, hope bmn doesnt go the same way as its 80pc of my portfolio.
ext could be a go at 4 or under, now the squable is on. but even to me, i can see potential in the smallies.
a similar event like this occured 6 months ago or so, it got a bit dumped and rio was currently buying(up to 1.20 then) but let it fall thru a buck and stay there..

 

[Sean K]

My MAK is leftovers from having held from Jan 07. I'm actually waiting for a break through 62c to add some more. I suggest you watch that level in the future, because breaching there may be the start of some higher highs. Still officially sideways until 75-80c broken though I think. That'll probably only happen if RP prices show definate stabilisation, or even head back up a little. Or, maybe some corporate action behind the scenes to take them over. I still don't quite fully understand the BON deal. Maybe they have access to some beneficiation plant in Namibia I don't know about. Otherwise there's going to be some heavy Capex costs in making it work.

If POG steadies and then continues its rise, I'd anticipate PRU to be eventually re-rated to where it should be. On a W African peer comparison is one of the cheapest. Not to say it can't fall over though, there's a lot of stocks trading even under cash backing which is insane. SRL for example.

BMN's had a great run. I was out about 75c so have missed this unfortunately. I just though EXT was the better bet.

 

[Sean K]

Looking closely at an opportunity with IVA too. Going to report an initial JORC on it's Merlin Mo/Re deposit possibly this week, which is the highest grade of it's type in the world. Market has already ran with it but it's correcting back to some sensible levels.

 

[shag]

yes i caught on this morning, but i suspect those taxi drivers r onto it now....
looks like support tested on bmn, im a aus resident so have to watch things now ie trading. oh how easy and backward nz is(re tax).

 

[shag]

too many stocks, too little free dosh....
i'd say u'll be kicking yrself over yr gir pick too soon.
iva still doing a runner, buggered i8f i'd dredge the crucial stuff up, build xpensive process plant and catch it via some flue, all for 300 bucks us. id say unless aus and k-stan finds loads more, its price can only go up. did someone say monoply....duopoly
less than au prices, au grades, as hard to produce as synthisising acid, and extremely rare....
mak up on very little news-well to me anyway.
oh brm nearly down on news, ago rocketing on yesterdays news, go figure.

 

[shag]

sorry mate but what r all those pidly trades in iva
someone keeping price up?

 

[Sean K]

The piddly little trades are a robot buying on behalf of a broker. The tell it how many to buy and at what price and they someohow manage to do it. I don't understand it all that well, but it's nothing sinister.

GIR still looking like it might break up soon.

Market should go through a consolidation phase soon thoug so I expect all stocks to be effected and come off a little with it, unless they have some exceptional news.

 

[Sean K]

Keep an eye on Zinc producers.

Last month:

PEM .15 to .35
CBH .04 to .12
TZN .45 to .75

Amongst others.

Not sure if we've missed the boat. Could be worth a quick trade if this run has just started.

 

[Sean K]

No trades last week. Been waiting for the pullback, which hasn't happened.

I've been listening to too much EW hocus pocus I think and it's clouded my judgement.

Should have bought GRY on the ann of the upgrade and extension of strike. Will on weakness perhaps.

Damn it's been a good couple of months! Should have been fully invested. Bloody Harry Hindsight didn't speak to me early enough.

Wish I had have seen the Zinc plays moving earlier, missed some good short term trades there.

TLS doesn't seem to be bouncing as I'd hoped. Oh well.

 

[shag]

pdn seem to have opened their new african plant..
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72103?oid=82027&sn=Detail
thus its rise friday.
gry didnt look too decisive friday again, few trades untill someone i presume had to close for the week.
i never got any iva as it got away on me and a week where i was out of excess cash. i presume it ran too hard, too quick for you too.
was that ann. the one u predicted, or is it still to come?
i wish i'd read these forums more, than listening to fat profits mid-late last yr, when i was still keen to procure devastated stocks.
gry 5c to 25(presently)...pru, brm....

 

[Sean K]

The IVA ann? Not the one I expect. Waiting for the Mo/Re tonnage and grade, but by then, the potential stag gain will be gone. It's factored in now probably. I think I have missed the boat there, thus, I have not jumped in. I might be wrong, and the gains may be on the confirmation, but please check the mc of this beast. It's in the millions. Many, many millions now... I am preferring at this time to try and find some really small cap stocks who are undervalued and get them before they are truely rated. Like AZM perhaps. Like a GRY. Get into a small cap stock, with massive potential, but with some real assets in the ground, who have been panic sold off. There is a real opportunity (or was) to make an absolute killing in this market and we've not made the most of it imo. Absolutely kicking myself at the moment. I saw this, sold just about everything at the right time, and failed to get in at the lemming stage. I'm going to change my nic to 'goose'.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I like your pdn play. PDN is good stock but I got in too early last year and lost a motza. GO with it. I may join you again as a holder.

gg