PMH - Pacmag Metals

[tech/a]

I'm simply giving a veiw of CURRENT price action.
If you've bought and it seems some have for the longer term then thats fine.
But what I saw here was discussion around the last 2 days price action,the only time I saw long term hold for future growth was when I gave my veiws.

Those holding long term may well do very well.
On the other side it may stall and you'll find the recient high very difficult to breach.
My comments are based around evidence in this thread that short term gain was/is the order of the day.

Thats not your opinion bro, thats FACT. But having a good performance in the past gives you confidence in your system for picking winners. Just like what tech says, if historically uv been able to pick 60% winners, then u dont know whether a trade will be a winner or a loser when u enter it, but u take confidence in the fact that 60% of the time, it will be a winner.

This is very true at the time of purchase we dont know how high it will potentially go or when it will do it. short term I personally love to be on a flyers that can return X% very quickly---we all do.
My point again here is that very few have shown any risk mitigation strategy.

I been thought, charts don't lie, and my chart view is only one view, so pls put up what you see so we all can see a different view.

The chart itself will do what it does the analysis can "Lie" as analysis is subjective. Its what you do when you get it RIGHT and what you do when you get it WRONG that makes the difference.

I'm glad of the flak will make my thread interesting on these sort of trades in the Trading systems section.

Chris
This is not a personal attack,you are committed to your view and will act accordingly.I dont blame anyone who has taken this stock as a long term hold for their view.Time will tell.
If I had been able to purchase around 30c ish then I would have been out yesterday early at around the open price (I'll be showing the technical analysis for these exits in the thread.) I would have profit to 54C.

I would now be leaving the trade for others and placing this on the watch list.
The last thing I want to do is hold a position falling OR moving sideways.Thats capital tied up and not working.

Again this is MY view,its not yours,Nizars or Realists,it is offered as an alternate veiw. Something for some to think about.

Dont have charts with me so will put up some chart analysis when I can.

 

[Sean K]

Well, I'll be dumping it if it doesn't rise on Monday. Under $0.40 and I'm toast. Will sell at $0.55 for next weekends beer money.

 

[Realist]

Fair enough Tech.

I never buy a stock that I am not prepared to hold for many years for this very reason.

I screwed up the entry price no doubt about it, but the fundamentals of this thing should see me right longterm. In the context of the companies value I did not pay too much.

I bought Westfiled and they dropped 6%, Fosters and they dropped 6%, Rinker and they dropped 5%, bought some CQT and they dropped 20%, bought BHP and they went up then dropped massively, same with many other shares - But on every one of them I am now ahead!

I hope this is the case with PMH. Monday will be an interesting day, I have PMH to watch and USA floats as well. :

 

[chris1983]

Tech-A When I researched this initially I liked them.

Now that ive researched them even deeper and gone into the history of it etc I'm not sure. It wasn't developed earlier due to the costs of digging it out.

Long Term may or may not pay off. Like I said ill have my stoploss on them. In the longterm they may be great but im not prepared to see them go back to the 20's. Its like all the new uranium plays coming back on the market. All the older deposits at lower grades are quite valuable now because they believe uranium prices will drive higher and wont fall for some time. Maybe this deposit at Ann Mason is able to be developed at current Copper prices.

They will always need copper into the future though. China and India are booming..who knows eh. I was sure on these to be a win when I first bought them...now that feeling has turned into.."im not so sure..ill have to see what happens" So I'll watch them closely on Monday.

I dont trade on charts etc etc I trade on my own opinion of a stock and its in the air with this one. I like seeing all you guys on the forums do your charts though. Seeing the breakouts etc..but yeah I dont buy in based on the charts

I just cant figure out why it wouldnt be economical to dig it out. I like to analyze everything.

 

[donjohnson]

Tech/a

...As far as tissues and teashirts, I prob go one better and shout for beers....actually tis Chris & DonJ that should be shouting as I'm sure they're made a squillion on this one.... where are they anyway.....at the bank....

Would love to have been - though as I said I can't sell without my SRN number, being issuer sponsored is my curse.

I would have locked in my profits on Friday morning and left the rest run.

I still believe there is room for this stock to run, it will be on peoples watch lists, people will know the PMH name and it WILL attract attention when news is released.

Cheers...

 

[tech/a]

I certainly enjoy reading the Fundumantal stuff you all find.Like you I guess the Technical side is nice to veiw so is the Fundamental to me.

Don
Know guy who has been trading locking in profits for years he does it with a twist.

He initially 15 yrs ago started with $10,000 and used to trade 2 stocks max.
He now trades Margin with $100K down and Leveraged 3:1 and now trades only 3 at once.

This is what he does--really simple but I think very clever.

If and when a stock increases by 100% he sells his initial outlay and re finances any losses he has had in that time and lets the rest run indefinately on that trade.

So say he had bought at $1 and its now at $2 he and in the time that that trade went to $2 he had 7 x 2% losses (Just a guess as an example).
He would re stock his bank and let the profit run.

Now if the stock said buy again and he wasnt committed he would and has bought the same stock again---usually later if and when it triggers a buy.

Over 15 yrs he now has quite a stable of stocks which he trades on profit
his initial capital is always kept intact.

He has many very old and very profitable trades.Some rise some fall and some have been delisted 2 I think in 15 yrs.I dont know what the portfolio is worth but he is very happy with his "retirement fund".

Here is a chart to look at.
Best of trading on this one everyone.

 

[nizar]

Thanks tech.

So down to 35c and then.....?
I'll be very suprised if this goes down to the 20s - come on, i mean, that news has got to be worth something!

 

[Beethoven]

I think this company fundamentally is a good stock to have in the long run. I also agree from experience what tech/a is also saying especially when there is a big hype about a stock. An eg of this is toro which went up due to the hype of uranium in the news. The stock shot up to 1.6 and toro never even dug a hole. Toro atm now is at 70 cents. IMO this stock will go down a little in the short term but it might not go down as much as tech/a says. In the long run this stock is great fundamentally and will continue to have an upward trend. This is just an opinion and i am no expert chartist.

 

[Halba]

wtf the copper grades are way less than 1%. what a joker of a company :iamwithst :homer:

 

[Beethoven]

wtf the copper grades are way less than 1%. what a joker of a company :iamwithst :homer:

lol i agree but its the tonnage that has got peoples interest atm

 

[nizar]

I think this company fundamentally is a good stock to have in the long run. I also agree from experience what tech/a is also saying especially when there is a big hype about a stock. An eg of this is toro which went up due to the hype of uranium in the news. The stock shot up to 1.6 and toro never even dug a hole. Toro atm now is at 70 cents. IMO this stock will go down a little in the short term but it might not go down as much as tech/a says. In the long run this stock is great fundamentally and will continue to have an upward trend. This is just an opinion and i am no expert chartist.

yeh but see with toro how it tripled on the open to 75c+ and then the next day IT STILL DOUBLED to $1.60 (the high).

speculations a bi*ch but hell if u can make money from it why not. I milked toro to pieces. here i may get it wrong but as long as ur up overall then its all good.

u never really know when a stock will stop running until it does in fact stop running.

how was i 2 know when i bought into this stock that it would close on the low? it couldve closed at 65c white candle and the music keeps playing.

 

[chris1983]

Well guys,

All I can say is there has been some serious down ramping of this stock on other forums. Misleading information being posted..etc etc. Not done on purpose but its still information that may affect some investors judgements putting negative sentiment onto the stock. Who knows what could happen monday.

Comparisons are being made to FNT resources for eg.

"FNT has inferred 570,000 tonnes at 650 + metres deep of copper at 0.4% inferred.

PMH has inferred 810,000 tonnes from 97m to 880m + of copper at 0.4%. The inferred went up by 64%.

PMH's price should be half of what it is IMO and pro d/trader's, perhaps with a few helping hands via prominent broking houses, took the momentum monkey's out.

GIR sold to a company with little to offer except a placement to the inner circle. Every month there is one.

It was a calculated sting IMO but luck to those that got in early ala FNT.

PMH is a massive sell until she in the 20s again IMHO.

Have you checked FNT's current market cap? LOL"

I wrote back politely and rectified the facts.

"I wanted to let you know you have got the figures drastically wrong which may mislead people.

Pacmag have an initial Ann Mason resource of 810 Million Tonnes at 0.4% Copper. If you look at the comparison with Frontier they have a revised estimate of 108 Million Tonnes at 0.47% Copper equivelant.

Now just in Pacmags higher graded Copper equivalent they have three times more copper than what Frontier have. If you work out Pacmags entire inground resource they have 6 times more copper in the ground than what Frontier have.

Frontier have a market cap of 10 million whereas Pacmag is just over 40 Million.

Pacmag are in a way better area being Nevada. Frontier is in Papua New Guinea which would be a tougher place to develop a mine.

One thing I will say. I am not sure whats going to happen with them because we don’t know if it is financially viable to mine what they currently have. But based on the sized comparison of the inground values Pacmags has a lot more value in ground than what you have previously stated."

After doing comparisons with Frontier I believe Pacmag could still have a steady rise. Initially they could get hit..people selling out..getting scared. If only we could predict the future

 

[tech/a]

Initially they could get hit..people selling out..getting scared. If only we could predict the future

There is no need to predict the future you just have to know how to trade these so that when your in one you know what to look for. Fundamantally youd have been out at around 52c and looking for an re entry if thats what you wanted---profit in hand. For most its hold and hope!!
If anyone is at all interested this is what to look for its also another chart so as you can see happens regularly.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11955&postcount=15

u never really know when a stock will stop running until it does in fact stop running.

It stopped running at 56c.
If a trader bought a stock at 56c and held it through a drop to 42.5c in a single day,most would say he got it wrong,not only that but he was silly enough to hold it without a stop.
Well in my veiw those that held this as its been sold off EVEN WHEN IN PROFIT have killed a windfall.

100% rises in a day should be sen for what they are RARE!
Having said that More sellers saw this opportunity for good profit than did Friday buyers,so did a few here.

 

[tarnor]

i'm dissapointed that i didn't hold it overnight. was preempting it to get nasty press mentioning low grade and accusing them of having dodgy ann like others of late. still made a killing selling out on announcement day. will look for a quick trade on a bounce mon/tues and then leave it alone.


With announcement trading and catching these rediculous runs. A very simple thing to look for which is usually a winner is the breakout of the opening spike. After a big announcement the interest will surge and thiers always a big gapup but they rarely continue straight on usually falling back momentarily (5./10 minutes) off thier opening high. If a whole lot of traders hit it in the preopen they might be stuck on the high and a little bit of resistance will build up as they think they got it wrong and want thier money back.

*very easy to get caught out on medicore announcements when the volume suddenly drys up 10 minutes after open, so traders are wary about being stranded*

If you believe the announcement is something special, bs run/hype worthy picking up the shares in that initial little pull back is probably okay but usually its best to wait for the initial open price to be broken strongly when that gets churned through its usually blast off and the chasing will start. Seen the same thing happen over and over every now and again but if you go looking for one of these stocks you will get burned buying into mediocre spikes. After a while you willbe holding dogs waiting to get your money back and be vowing never again.

As far as when to sell look for a stall in movement, volume to slow up then the reversal. Good announcements will run towards close as punters are expecting great coverage overnight and another gapup in the morning, which is usually the best time to sell is 5/10 minutes after the open or in the match out. Would have to be something pretty amazing for it to continue to run days on end

If thiers something dodgey about the stock, its good to sell late on the day of the announcement i got this one wrong on pmh and missed a bit of profit but meh..

Before you buy after an announcement you should always check the chart and see how much price and volume has risen before its released. The last thing you want to do is be buying when everyone is selling into the fact. check for previous runs with big volume and stranded buyers. Sure some announcements will still go ballistic even if theirs pre runups in price with volume but its soemthing to factor in..

dont know if that helps anyone but I got pasted when i first mucked around with these sort of stocks.. need to be quick to bail if you get it wrong. Thiers always another bs stock which will have a big run just a matter of being patient so no point hanging on in hope waiting for the hype to come back

 

[tech/a]

Tanor.

Some good stuff here.
Combined with some technical trading ideas I'm sure that your method could be improved even more.
Be interested in your veiws when I start the thread on Outliers.

 

[Realist]

Hmm it is getting beaten like a red headed step child this morning.

Got down to 39.5c.

Ahh my biggest trading mistake ever.

Damn it, I'll just hold and hope!

The fundamentals are still good, and the price is still low. I aint selling yet.

 

[Realist]

Bouncing back up to 41c.

Keep bouncing!!

 

[ALFguy]

I'm surprised it's holding....really thought it might tank this morning.

Still, the day is young.

 

[johnmwu3]

Maybe up in the pm trading.
The up trend is strong ?

 

[Realist]

I'm surprised it's holding....really thought it might tank this morning.

Still, the day is young.

Where's the faith?

It was 40c 3 months ago before this absolutely huge announcement.

It is a good buy for 40c - it has $33,000,000,000 worth of inground copper fer christ sakes!