PMH - Pacmag Metals

[tech/a]

chris 1983

Ever heard buy the rumour sell the fact.

Its simply a discovery nothing has been implemented there are no profits at this time and may not be for sometime---Government regs--infrastructure---a long long way to go in BOTH cases meaning CDU as well.

Simply the market doesnt agree with you all.

It will move sideways for 2 reasons.
(1) There are many caught buying at the top and the really silly ones adding on the way down.Everytime price rallies it will be sold into.
(2) The second group will be those who bought well and held through the downturn looking for it to reclaim highs---after a fair period of time patience will run out for these traders and they will dump into any rally.

When you clear all these out then the stock could slowley rise.
Id say 6-12 mths before sustainable new highs.

 

[chris1983]

chris 1983

Ever heard buy the rumour sell the fact.

Its simply a discovery nothing has been implemented there are no profits at this time and may not be for sometime---Government regs--infrastructure---a long long way to go in BOTH cases meaning CDU as well.

Simply the market doesnt agree with you all.

It will move sideways for 2 reasons.
(1) There are many caught buying at the top and the really silly ones adding on the way down.Everytime price rallies it will be sold into.
(2) The second group will be those who bought well and held through the downturn looking for it to reclaim highs---after a fair period of time patience will run out for these traders and they will dump into any rally.

When you clear all these out then the stock could slowley rise.
Id say 6-12 mths before sustainable new highs.

Hmm fair enough. Practically half the shares have traded hands though in the mid 40's. Then 52% of the shares are held by the top 20 share holders..is that right? I didnt buy up the top top. I was in yesterday. The price doesnt concern me untill it drops into the mid to low 30's. If they start free falling lots of people will be looking at losses. Could happen...I dont think it will though.

I just want to make an assessment to whether they are worth keeping. IMO they are so i'll hold and see how things progress.

 

[johnmwu3]

This weekend someone may comment PMH should be priced $25 according to the ground value of its reserve, how do you think about it?
How do you think about CDU ? from 50c to $10 in one month ?
So next week people will crowded in to buy at 80c PHM.
How is AGS from 30c to $1 ?

 

[nizar]

tech/a,

doesnt a price breakout on massive volumes trigger a buy?
and then for those unsure the gap up on volume on the next trading day confirm it?

i reckon if it closes on 45 or 45.5 or anything above yesterdays close its still bullish and has a good chance of going up (compared to something trending down, for example, id rather buy a stock thats going up then one trading down which is "undervalued"), i mean the rise wasnt to do with "hype" or "speculation", it was based on something fundamental.

and doesnt buy the rumour sell the fact means that the sp and volume goes up BEFORE the announcement. The announcement came out, and thats what triggered the run. The day before the announcement was an ordinary one.

the fact that it went from 58-44c flushed out alot of traders. When/If this gaps up on monday they will buy again... IMO...

 

[nizar]

This weekend someone may comment PMH should be priced $25 according to the ground value of its reserve, how do you think about it?
How do you think about CDU ? from 50c to $10 in one month ?
So next week people will crowded in to buy at 80c PHM.
How is AGS from 30c to $1 ?

exactly.
theres nothing to suggest that this run is over, actually it just started.
has price gone down? no, have volumes dropped off? no

 

[tech/a]

Nizar.

It comes down to timeframes and profit.
Potential profit isnt worth the paper its written on.

You could all be correct and if I saw a spike from a consolidation in the future I would probably be joining you.

But until I see it I personally will stand aside.
I may miss a huge spike.
I may also have funds available for other opportunities while this wallows.

I didnt see the first move here however those that did and knew how to trade it could have been out nearer the top rubbing their hands together looking for a future opportunity with cash in hand

 

[ALFguy]

Probably not the best example but this is what happened with CDU. Many jumped out taking a profit only to find it opening higher the following day - many then bought back in I expect, and again jumped out to take a small profit.
No-one expected it to reach above $3 but with the resource estimates, ppl could see the value - hence why buyers poured in.

This company have other good assets too, including Uranium.

That said, everyone is going to be weary of diving back in on a rally now.

 

[Realist]

The silly thing to do is buy high sell low. If you paid to much just hold. There's clear evidence based on the recent release that this company is still tremendously undervalued, if you need to hold for years then so be it.

That is why I do not use stops. There's no way I'm gonna sell and lose money on what is potentially a ten bagger!!

Even if it closes at 35c today I will hold.

 

[tarnor]

The silly thing to do is buy high sell low. If you paid to much just hold. There's clear evidence based on the recent release that this company is still tremendously undervalued, if you need to hold for years then so be it.

That is why I do not use stops. There's no way I'm gonna sell and lose money on what is potentially a ten bagger!!

Even if it closes at 35c today I will hold.

Realist this is completely the wrong way to trade and will just lead to disaster imo, particuarly if you're buying on news spikes. Take your losses quickly, let your profits run..

While you're waiting to get your money back you're missing opportunities elsewhere..

edit| or were you making a joke and i missed the humour

 

[Realist]

Realist this is completely the wrong way to trade and will just lead to disaster imo, particuarly if you're buying on news spikes. Take your losses quickly, let your profits run..

While you're waiting to get your money back you're missing opportunities elsewhere..

edit| or were you making a joke and i missed the humour

If only we all traded the same way

I'm buying into a company with a tremendous $33B inferred resource, the company costs only $45M. If I let market sentiment sway me I'll be in and out losing money all over the place.

I made the decision to buy into PMH based on fundamentals not charts. I can not let others opinions sway me. I am holding until I can sell for a good profit, simple as that! That may be 2 years away and if that is the case fine, my tax will be reduced.

The price changes today are caused by traders jumping in and out trying to make a quick buck, stop losses are triggered, panic selling happens, people sell a great propspect cause others are, they are not based on the actual company. People here are starting to doubt whether it is a good buy simply cause the price went down, they'll no doubt think it is a great buy if the price doubles on Monday, yet the company and fundamentals will not have changed at all. Basing your purchases or sales on market sentiment will only cause heartache cause it can never be predicted. Fundamentally no one thinks this is a bad buy.

 

[Sean K]

I'm on this now too. Just had a 3rd read through the ann and it's pretty compelling. The thing that strikes me is that further upgrades to the resource are very possible. Could be a 1 billion tn ++ resource at good grades. Also, love the fact that the consultants who have completed the JORC estimate seem pretty experienced. Can't see this been halved like the CDU one. Can only get better by the look of it.

 

[tech/a]

Realist.

A Buffet Prodigy at his best.

Buffet would be rolling his eyes in disbelief---your company hasnt even turned a sod of soil.

Hey I hope your right for your sake hope I have found isnt a reliable analysis tool.

 

[Sean K]

Realist.

Hey I hope your right for your sake hope I have found isnt a reliable analysis tool.

Tech, Should read the ann. It's not a 'hope I have found' resource.

 

[Realist]

Realist.

A Buffet Prodigy at his best.

Buffet would be rolling his eyes in disbelief---your company hasnt even turned a sod of soil.

Hey I hope your right for your sake hope I have found isnt a reliable analysis tool.

Well I am a Graham prodigy, and he would turn in his grave if he saw what I did today.


But I'll tell you something, if he knew what I did today, he'd say "fer christ sakes hold". Do not let market sentiment sway you this does afterall have potential, you may just get lucky!

 

[chris1983]

I'm on this now too. Just had a 3rd read through the ann and it's pretty compelling. The thing that strikes me is that further upgrades to the resource are very possible. Could be a 1 billion tn ++ resource at good grades. Also, love the fact that the consultants who have completed the JORC estimate seem pretty experienced. Can't see this been halved like the CDU one. Can only get better by the look of it.

Hey Kennes,

I like it too. People are just worried on how much its going to cost to dig out. Should be interesting to see what reports, articles get written up over the weekend.

 

[Sean K]

Ref my last post:

Unless 'inferred' is defined by 'hope I have found' of course.

 

[tarnor]

some people think its not a good buy... i see a lot of talk about grades being low and deep... personally I don't know but im not convinced their were any large players taking a big position looks like trader churn to me, undisplined ones now holding the bag.. the higher grade zone targets could be a goer and it could be huge who knows but thiers still to many unknowns for fundamental analysis. (which i know very little about ) It will probably build towards more results which migth be agood trade and sell before their ann, re-entry if exceptional (mediocre to good will just be sold down anyway)..

Heres the daily chart if this was ayearly for any other stock where would you buy it. there was a few possible entries but you would have wanted very tight stops .. each to his own i guess but I really cant agree with your buy low sell high reasoning :/

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi guys, I haven't read all the posts but it seems everyone was drawn to this stock after the release of Ann Mason upgrade,

PMH was formerley Pacific Magnesium (going back 3yrs) I watched them transition into the PMH they are today taking control of the Ann Mason deposit etc,

I would just like to make this point, there are quite a few large global deposits of copper, those that are already operating and literally hundreds of discovered large tonneage low grade deposits, they key is that the grades must be high enough and the deposits must be shallow enough to set that deposit aside from the 'pack' so to speak,

Most would be aware that taking a deposit from an inferred jorc to a BFS is a 2-3 yr process (Just look at IRN's Huge Multi Billion Tonne Deposit) and alot of fundign is required along the way,

So without really commenting on PMH, I make the following suggestions,

Try and ensure that a spec resource company is

a) Well funded or supported ie via a JV (ie IRN has Xstrata maybe)

b) deposit is of a reasonable grade (differs for different commodities) ie close to 1% for Cu

c) Even if deposit is close to 1% Cu it must be near surface and contain very few impurities to make extraction economic

d) Low grade deposits must be close to infrastructure, if not they must be really large to justify Cap-Ex (ie GCR low grade but near infrastructure)

Good luck to all

 

[Realist]

The beauty of PMH is the location, mid Western USA, and the fact it is close to trains and other miners etc.

That is far better and safer than Africa for instance.

 

[Sean K]

Hi guys, I haven't read all the posts but it seems everyone was drawn to this stock after the release of Ann Mason upgrade,

PMH was formerley Pacific Magnesium (going back 3yrs) I watched them transition into the PMH they are today taking control of the Ann Mason deposit etc,

I would just like to make this point, there are quite a few large global deposits of copper, those that are already operating and literally hundreds of discovered large tonneage low grade deposits, they key is that the grades must be high enough and the deposits must be shallow enough to set that deposit aside from the 'pack' so to speak,

Most would be aware that taking a deposit from an inferred jorc to a BFS is a 2-3 yr process (Just look at IRN's Huge Multi Billion Tonne Deposit) and alot of fundign is required along the way,

So without really commenting on PMH, I make the following suggestions,

Try and ensure that a spec resource company is

a) Well funded or supported ie via a JV (ie IRN has Xstrata maybe)

b) deposit is of a reasonable grade (differs for different commodities) ie close to 1% for Cu

c) Even if deposit is close to 1% Cu it must be near surface and contain very few impurities to make extraction economic

d) Low grade deposits must be close to infrastructure, if not they must be really large to justify Cap-Ex (ie GCR low grade but near infrastructure)

Good luck to all

Hey YT,

Have you crunched the numbers yourself yet? Shares on issue, inferred resource v price of copper, etc?

kennas