Picking the end of the GFC

[marklar]

What signs are we likely to see that might signal an end to the Global Financial Crisis? Here's my

Today I was in an Audi dealership circling an $80k car for 25 minutes, I'd told them earlier in the week that I'd be in this morning to take a look at it & discuss numbers, but nobody was interested in talking to me, so I left. Obviously Audi Australia is doing just fine now.

Calls from Real Estate agents have changed from 'we've got this property you might like to buy' into 'would you like to sell?', and this is not just one RE agent, it's been quite a few.

Tradies are getting harder to get hold of for small jobs & my Travel Agent is run off her feet.

Does this mean it's almost over?

 

[dutchie]

The fireworks to herald in 2015.

 

[Nyden]

What GFC?

I've personally not noticed one iota of difference here in Australia. Other than what's been happening in the market. So, as far as I'm concerned - it's long over, if it was even here at all.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Today I was in an Audi dealership circling an $80k car for 25 minutes, I'd told them earlier in the week that I'd be in this morning to take a look at it & discuss numbers, but nobody was interested in talking to me, so I left. Obviously Audi Australia is doing just fine now.

The clothes you wear into the dealership are all important. If you wore black Stubbies' shorts, singlet, thongs and terry toweling hat then this would have indicated you weren't at all serious about buying an Audi.

In regards to the recent turmoil in share markets and the jobs front (GFC), well I have felt there was more to come. Like another less volatile implosion. So far these feelings have not unfolded.

 

[Julia]

Re a dealer judging the financial circumstances of a potential buyer on their dress, I disagree entirely. Any car salesman who does this will lose many good sales.

I've known plenty of very wealthy people who dress well and truly down if they're not at work, and at the other end of the scale, wannabes who have the slick clothes and no cash.

It's like any other form of packaging - it means nothing.

 

[tronic72]

Interesting post.

I was about to post on the GFC, but with a different theme.

My theory is we haven't had ours in Australia yet because we've been injecting billions of extra dollars into the economy.

We haven't had the property drop like the UK and US or the loss of jobs. My theory is that we are in an artificial state which will cripple the country long term, for the sake of sparing some short term pain.

Personally I'm looking at buying property in the US!

I don't think we've have had a GFC in Australia yet. We've all pigged out but haven't picked up the tab yet! When Labour finally looses power, we will see how things REALLY are.

 

[Nyden]

Interesting post.

I was about to post on the GFC, but with a different theme.

My theory is we haven't had ours in Australia yet because we've been injecting billions of extra dollars into the economy.

We haven't had the property drop like the UK and US or the loss of jobs. My theory is that we are in an artificial state which will cripple the country long term, for the sake of sparing some short term pain.

Personally I'm looking at buying property in the US!

I don't think we've have had a GFC in Australia yet. We've all pigged out but haven't picked up the tab yet! When Labour finally looses power, we will see how things REALLY are.

What tab? Seriously, I believe that our stimulus has nearly been irrelevant. It was just fortunate that we were in excellent shape going into this thing; and we're still in fantastic shape coming out of it It was also fortunate that commodities started picking up steam again.

The fundamentals that caused all of these crashes in other countries do not exist in Australia. They had an oversupply of houses, lower interest rates, and the ability to turn in the keys and walk away from their home - with zero debt.

Anyone still waiting for the 'big crash' here in Australia is going to look quite the fool in a few years, in my opinion.

 

[joeyr46]

What tab? Seriously, I believe that our stimulus has nearly been irrelevant. It was just fortunate that we were in excellent shape going into this thing; and we're still in fantastic shape coming out of it It was also fortunate that commodities started picking up steam again.

The fundamentals that caused all of these crashes in other countries do not exist in Australia. They had an oversupply of houses, lower interest rates, and the ability to turn in the keys and walk away from their home - with zero debt.

Anyone still waiting for the 'big crash' here in Australia is going to look quite the fool in a few years, in my opinion.

The tab is debt always has been and always will be We are not in great shape but like someone else said we have not yet raelly begun to pay debt I read only yesterday that 80% of the funds are banks lend are borrowed from overseas (cannot say whether this is correct ) but if it is now that our dollar has turned down regardless of interest rates being reasonably higher than most countries if this turns into a full downtrend watch the liquidity dry up and our market fall including houses. Although I don't expect it to get as bad as US or UK for some of the reasons you cited above. However I must be the only one that beleives there is no shortage of houses. Our population has gone from 16m approx in 1970 to 22m today but there is at least double the number of houses since then IMHO

 

[Naked shorts]

It was over when Goldman Sachs released far better then expected earnings back in April.

 

[Nyden]

The tab is debt always has been and always will be We are not in great shape but like someone else said we have not yet raelly begun to pay debt I read only yesterday that 80% of the funds are banks lend are borrowed from overseas (cannot say whether this is correct ) but if it is now that our dollar has turned down regardless of interest rates being reasonably higher than most countries if this turns into a full downtrend watch the liquidity dry up and our market fall including houses. Although I don't expect it to get as bad as US or UK for some of the reasons you cited above. However I must be the only one that beleives there is no shortage of houses. Our population has gone from 16m approx in 1970 to 22m today but there is at least double the number of houses since then IMHO

Sorry, but I can hardly understand what you're trying to say.

However, in response to the parts I am able to comprehend - I'll say this. Pish Posh.

 

[DocK]

What signs are we likely to see that might signal an end to the Global Financial Crisis? Here's my

Today I was in an Audi dealership circling an $80k car for 25 minutes, I'd told them earlier in the week that I'd be in this morning to take a look at it & discuss numbers, but nobody was interested in talking to me, so I left. Obviously Audi Australia is doing just fine now.

Calls from Real Estate agents have changed from 'we've got this property you might like to buy' into 'would you like to sell?', and this is not just one RE agent, it's been quite a few.

Tradies are getting harder to get hold of for small jobs & my Travel Agent is run off her feet.

Does this mean it's almost over?

Re a dealer judging the financial circumstances of a potential buyer on their dress, I disagree entirely. Any car salesman who does this will lose many good sales.

I've known plenty of very wealthy people who dress well and truly down if they're not at work, and at the other end of the scale, wannabes who have the slick clothes and no cash.

It's like any other form of packaging - it means nothing.

What a coincidence! Husband and I have spent the last few weekends researching my next vehicle, and took three for test drives. Despite making it clear to the various salesmen we spoke to that we intended placing a definite order this month, not one of them bothered to make a follow-up phone call. The Toyota salesman more or less assured himself of losing a sale when he asked me if I would be "bringing someone with me" when I called to arrange an appointment for a test drive - as obviously a woman on her own would have no idea what car she wanted for herself even though she's been driving for 28 years! I'm quite sure he wouldn't have asked my husband the same question had he phoned! Having made a decision, we phoned the salesman from the dealership of choice to make an appointment to come in and nut out the price - only to have him take 2 hours to return the call and then sound quite disinterested about the whole affair! Obviously cars must be selling themselves lately and the salesmen seem to think no effort is required. We did purchase a car, from a rival dealership that was happy to do a good deal, and didn't even have to spend any time "selling" it to us. Although the car only cost approx $50K, I would think it would still be worth a salesman at least making a call to follow-up on, but none of them could seem to be bothered! If I were their boss I'd be kicking backsides to hell and back.

I do often wonder if we'd get better service if we dressed a little flasher. We tend to stick to casual attire on weekends, and I'm not one for flashy jewellery etc - but I often find that salesmen will automatically direct us to the cheaper end of whatever we're shopping for until we specify exactly what we're looking for I must try getting out the glitter, slapping on the Sunday best, trowelling on the make-up and giving the hubbie make-over before we next venture out with the wallet unlocked - just to see if we're treated differently

What GFC?

I've personally not noticed one iota of difference here in Australia. Other than what's been happening in the market. So, as far as I'm concerned - it's long over, if it was even here at all.

We're self-employed in an industry that services boat-builders, cabinetmakers, shopfitters etc - and we definitely did notice a difference! Fortunately things have improved significantly over the past few months, but business was a lot slower for a while - as it was for a lot of our customers. I guess it depends to a large extent on what industry you're involved in. Public servants (teachers, police, nurses etc) unlikely to be affected if secure in employment - and many that I know benefitted from lower mortgage interest rates and various government stimulii. Quite a few self-funded retirees probably had to trim the budget due to lower interest rates on term deposits (my mother is much happier now that rates are increasing). Personally, I hope that it is long over - but I guess only time will tell for sure....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

September 5th 2016.

gg

 

[ROE]

What signs are we likely to see that might signal an end to the Global Financial Crisis? Here's my

Today I was in an Audi dealership circling an $80k car for 25 minutes, I'd told them earlier in the week that I'd be in this morning to take a look at it & discuss numbers, but nobody was interested in talking to me, so I left. Obviously Audi Australia is doing just fine now.

Calls from Real Estate agents have changed from 'we've got this property you might like to buy' into 'would you like to sell?', and this is not just one RE agent, it's been quite a few.

Tradies are getting harder to get hold of for small jobs & my Travel Agent is run off her feet.

Does this mean it's almost over?

50% Capital Investment for small business owner is what driven cars sales ..it ends 31 December

I ring the car dealer one morning 2 hours later I fax over order a new car

 

[Sean K]

September 5th 2016.

gg

I agree.

 

[joeyr46]

Sorry, but I can hardly understand what you're trying to say.

However, in response to the parts I am able to comprehend - I'll say this. Pish Posh.

which parts could you comprehend

 

[Julia]

I
My theory is we haven't had ours in Australia yet because we've been injecting billions of extra dollars into the economy.

We haven't had the property drop like the UK and US or the loss of jobs. My theory is that we are in an artificial state which will cripple the country long term, for the sake of sparing some short term pain.

I don't think we've have had a GFC in Australia yet. We've all pigged out but haven't picked up the tab yet! When Labour finally looses power, we will see how things REALLY are.

I agree. The stimulus in Australia was designed as much to allow Rudd & Co to be able to say we had not technically had a recession, and thus advance Mr Rudd's cred on the world stage. The fact that the huge borrowings will have to be paid for was irrelevant to them.

What tab?

What tab??? The massive debt to be paid off in the future Nyden, that's what tab.

The fundamentals that caused all of these crashes in other countries do not exist in Australia. They had an oversupply of houses, lower interest rates, and the ability to turn in the keys and walk away from their home - with zero debt.

Yep, quite true. Thus it could be argued that there was no need for the Australian government to indulge in such a massive spend up. Possibly the interest rate adjustments would have been enough.

Sorry, but I can hardly understand what you're trying to say.

However, in response to the parts I am able to comprehend - I'll say this. Pish Posh.

That's a bit rude, isn't it. I had no trouble understanding the post in question.

What a coincidence! Husband and I have spent the last few weekends researching my next vehicle, and took three for test drives. Despite making it clear to the various salesmen we spoke to that we intended placing a definite order this month, not one of them bothered to make a follow-up phone call. The Toyota salesman more or less assured himself of losing a sale when he asked me if I would be "bringing someone with me" when I called to arrange an appointment for a test drive - as obviously a woman on her own would have no idea what car she wanted for herself even though she's been driving for 28 years! I'm quite sure he wouldn't have asked my husband the same question had he phoned! Having made a decision, we phoned the salesman from the dealership of choice to make an appointment to come in and nut out the price - only to have him take 2 hours to return the call and then sound quite disinterested about the whole affair! Obviously cars must be selling themselves lately and the salesmen seem to think no effort is required. We did purchase a car, from a rival dealership that was happy to do a good deal, and didn't even have to spend any time "selling" it to us. Although the car only cost approx $50K, I would think it would still be worth a salesman at least making a call to follow-up on, but none of them could seem to be bothered! If I were their boss I'd be kicking backsides to hell and back.

Well, DocK, I'd suggest you contact the CEO of those companies and let them know. They will appreciate it.
I had a similar experience many years ago when choosing my new company car. Went in wearing casual clothes on a day off and was also directed to the cheaper model. Walked out and phoned the CEO of the company. Never saw that salesman there again.

 

[alphaman]

Went in wearing casual clothes on a day off and was also directed to the cheaper model. Walked out and phoned the CEO of the company. Never saw that salesman there again.

You told him specifically what you wanted, but he showed you a cheaper model?

 

[Nyden]

I agree. The stimulus in Australia was designed as much to allow Rudd & Co to be able to say we had not technically had a recession, and thus advance Mr Rudd's cred on the world stage. The fact that the huge borrowings will have to be paid for was irrelevant to them.




What tab??? The massive debt to be paid off in the future Nyden, that's what tab.


Yep, quite true. Thus it could be argued that there was no need for the Australian government to indulge in such a massive spend up. Possibly the interest rate adjustments would have been enough.


That's a bit rude, isn't it. I had no trouble understanding the post in question.



Well, DocK, I'd suggest you contact the CEO of those companies and let them know. They will appreciate it.
I had a similar experience many years ago when choosing my new company car. Went in wearing casual clothes on a day off and was also directed to the cheaper model. Walked out and phoned the CEO of the company. Never saw that salesman there again.

The stimulus was a mistake, and not needed at all - that much is now obvious. However, the tab is hardly worth worrying about. What is it now? 50-odd billion dollars? That really isn't too much money, and only works out to be about 6-7K per person. It's hardly crippling.

Were it not for the stimulus, of course - we would have fallen into a technical recession. However, it would have been very short lived - and the spin-master Rudd still would have still proclaimed it his victory.

Oh, and I legitimately did have difficulties in understanding Joey's post! - Mostly because I found it quite strange in the way that one point seemed to merge into the next. :

 

[joeyr46]

The stimulus was a mistake, and not needed at all - that much is now obvious. However, the tab is hardly worth worrying about. What is it now? 50-odd billion dollars? That really isn't too much money, and only works out to be about 6-7K per person. It's hardly crippling.

Were it not for the stimulus, of course - we would have fallen into a technical recession. However, it would have been very short lived - and the spin-master Rudd still would have still proclaimed it his victory.

Oh, and I legitimately did have difficulties in understanding Joey's post! - Mostly because I found it quite strange in the way that one point seemed to merge into the next. :

Were did you get 50 billion from the stimulus alone was 42 billion. The debt that has to be paid is total debt all mortgages all credit cards everything. For best parts of 40 years we have paid debt by increasing the supply of money either from the printing presses (inflation) or lately loose credit, while we have had a RBA that had delusional ideas it could control the economy via interest rates. Nyden we have not had a GFC here because we are in a slightly different cycle to US (IMHO) but if I count the elliott waves correctly we should be just about were US was in 2007 again IMHO. however regardless of whether we start down the road to deflation now or next year or the one after history tells us massive credit inflation always ends in debt deflation no exceptions. So we really should pay atention to what the stockmarket is telling us as it is probably the most accurate phsychological indicator we have
Hope you can understand this post Nyden but not worried if you cant

PS Thanks for defending me Julia

 

[Nyden]

Were did you get 50 billion from the stimulus alone was 42 billion. The debt that has to be paid is total debt all mortgages all credit cards everything. For best parts of 40 years we have paid debt by increasing the supply of money either from the printing presses (inflation) or lately loose credit, while we have had a RBA that had delusional ideas it could control the economy via interest rates. Nyden we have not had a GFC here because we are in a slightly different cycle to US (IMHO) but if I count the elliott waves correctly we should be just about were US was in 2007 again IMHO. however regardless of whether we start down the road to deflation now or next year or the one after history tells us massive credit inflation always ends in debt deflation no exceptions. So we really should pay atention to what the stockmarket is telling us as it is probably the most accurate phsychological indicator we have
Hope you can understand this post Nyden but not worried if you cant

PS Thanks for defending me Julia

People will always have debt, they always have - and always will. There is nothing at all wrong with debt Joey. If one is able to service ones debt, it can be one of the most fantastic tools in your arsenal.

How can anything happen without debt? What are people supposed to do? Save up until age 40 before finally buying a house outright? Seems to me that the same outcome would be achieved either way - the only difference being that the individual that took out credit has been living in his house all that time, and has now paid it off anyway.

Your idea of a strong economy is one with zero debt whatsoever? No one has a credit card, a mortgage, or any lines of credit at all? Never gonna happen