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Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

wanlad1 said:
Wedge breaking to the upside on good volume, with no ann out would suggest a technical break out. Maybe on the expectations of an ANN

Chart can be view here!


From their last presentation "no cap raises" to be concerned about as will be self funding this year as a producer

LOOKING AHEAD
• In production
• Self-funded outlook for 2010/2011
• 50% production growth next 2-3 years requires no new major infrastructure/capital
• Major coal buyers hold strategic shareholdings
• PCI/Thermal assets - aligned to global demand growth
• 3-5 year target - establish position as significant, independent producer
• 2010 coal price forecasts rising
Click to expand...

Cheers for the chart wl1.

Great to see COK firming up out of its flacid slumber.:D Also great to see it firming and shooting to the upside.

DISC: Still holding COK.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

GumbyLearner said:
Cheers for the chart wl1.

Great to see COK firming up out of its flacid slumber.:D Also great to see it firming and shooting to the upside.

DISC: Still holding COK.
Click to expand...

I thought I'd post the chart GL as it resembles a pattern seen in the Wyckoff Method of stock patterns. Falling through the ice, and then finding support on increased vol in Sept-Nov 09 and now taking off.

Nice to have gotten in a few days ago, good on you for holding. A link to the Wyckoff Method.

http://ezinearticles.com/?Stock-Mar...---Step-Four-of-the-Wyckoff-Method&id=1355282

gg
 

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Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

I sold some BRM to buy back into COK.

Have done alright with this stock in the past so think its time to re invest.

I'm amazed it didn't get a speeding ticket on Friday though:eek: Utterly amazed actually.

Ive seen stocks get one for ALOT less.

Always good to see COK on the up and up :)
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

The recent Copenhagen climate talks effecting falling into disarray can only benefit coal companies (generally). My gut tells me coal stocks will come back hard. I personally feel its worth the risk to get into some newcomers or small-caps; where there is real growth potential. Having said that I'm taking a decent jab at both COK and JAL.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Hey, long time reader first time poster.

I've been holding the COK for sometime now. Picked mine up at 23c and could have made a lot by selling on the up's and buying on the lows. Unfortunately I lack the plums to do such things!

Just wondering what people are currently thinking about this one? Has anything fundamentally changed since it reached the lofty peaks of +$1? There seem to be some genuine mining guru's around here, would love to hear some opinions.

I tell everyone who will listen to me to get some COK action - glad to see there are some fans around here.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

From The Age on the weekend:


Stand by for a market re-rating of Queensland coal producer Cockatoo Coal (ASX: COK). The stock closed at 40 ¢ on Friday, continuing its sideways trading pattern despite two key events for the group which are now being promoted to investors in an eastern-state roadshow.

The first was the conversion in the December quarter of the group's 62.5 per cent-owned Baralaba coal mine in the Bowen Basin from loss maker to money earner. Acquired from US coal producer Peabody in late 2008, the PCI/thermal coal mine generated its first positive cash flow, of $2.67 million, in the December quarter.

Cockatoo has knocked the operation's cost structure into shape and is now comfortable in forecasting production costs of $100 a tonne on a predicted 2010 production of 550,000 tonnes (60 per cent PCI, 40 per cent thermal).

It's not the world's biggest mine. But the plan is for a 50 per cent low-cost expansion to 750,000 tonnes within two years ahead of an eventual push in the Bowen Basin to 3 million tonnes a year over the next three to five years. Then there is the longer-term plan to be a 3-4 million tonne (thermal) producer from the Surat Basin.

The longer-term ambitions are dependent on Cockatoo getting the required allocations of rail and port infrastructure. Competition is hot. But unlike a lot of would-be producers, Cockatoo has got the kudos and street cred that comes from having turned a loss-making mine in to a profitable show.

If there was nothing else at play, the market could be excused for leaving Cockatoo shares to trade sideways because of the uncertainty on just what infrastructure allocations the company will secure in support of its plans to become a 6 million tonne-a-year producer, if not 9 million tonnes a year.

But there is something else at play - the strong expectation that that PCI (a lower cost alternative to coking coal) prices are about to take off while thermal prices at least remain at historically high levels. Last year's contract price for PCI was $US85-$US90 a tonne. Consensus is that this year's contract price should come in about $US140 a tonne. Once that becomes a reality, analyst valuations of the stock could be interesting reading.




Also, Fat Prophets upgraded COK to a BUY last week.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

The Fat have had a buy on this for a long while.

If you really believe in COK you'll invest and watch it rise. :D
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

eddyeagle said:
From The Age on the weekend:
Stand by for a market re-rating of Queensland coal producer Cockatoo Coal (ASX: COK). The stock closed at 40 ¢ on Friday, continuing its sideways trading pattern despite two key events for the group which are now being promoted to investors in an eastern-state roadshow.

Cockatoo has knocked the operation's cost structure into shape and is now comfortable in forecasting production costs of $100 a tonne on a predicted 2010 production of 550,000 tonnes (60 per cent PCI, 40 per cent thermal).

Also, Fat Prophets upgraded COK to a BUY last week.
Click to expand...


Production cost is very high at $100 per tonne and royalties on sales would make it very difficult to show a profit in PCI or thermal coal. The thermal coal forward price to 2015 is only about US$107 a tonne and this would be a reasonable reason for the share price struggling a bit (Present spot price at Newcastle is about US$94 a tonne).
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

noirua said:
Production cost is very high at $100 per tonne and royalties on sales would make it very difficult to show a profit in PCI or thermal coal. The thermal coal forward price to 2015 is only about US$107 a tonne and this would be a reasonable reason for the share price struggling a bit (Present spot price at Newcastle is about US$94 a tonne).
Click to expand...

From today's Citigroup market summary;

PCI Markets Tightening: MCC contributes ~30% of the seaborne PCI market and is therefore
well positioned to benefit from an expected appreciation in the PCI price. We understand current
spot hard coking coal pricing is low US$200/t. MCC noted that historically PCI pricing to hard
coking coal had averaged a discount of ~20-30%. MCC is hopeful of achieving a discount rate
toward the lower end of this range. Using a 20% discount and US$200/t implies a PCI price of
~US$160/t. This would be significantly better than our current PCI price estimate for JFY10 of
US$130/t and provides upside potential.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

lucifuge said:
heads-up all....for what it's worth, Wise Owl recently :p:did a report on Cockatoo Coal with a target price of 65c. :)

http://www.cockatoocoal.com.au/cok/index.cfm?LinkServID=22A28C07-BF7A-A95E-013616D6C8506F51&showMeta=0
Click to expand...

GumbyLearner said:
The Fat have had a buy on this for a long while.:rolleyes:

If you really believe in COK you'll invest and watch it rise. :D
Click to expand...

Thanks Lucifuge for the update.
COK should do better IMO but please see comment from GUMBY Learner as well.
Interesting however. I held COK religiously and faithfully and just dumped them last week :banghead:
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Very encouraging shareholder report "On the Perch" just received for the month of April includes
Quote
Cockatoo Coal delivers maiden net profit for 1HFY2010
Cockatoo Coal and its controlled entities announced on 15 March a maiden
net profit of $103,655.
This is a major milestone for Cockatoo, offering tangible proof of how the
acquisition and overhaul of the Baralaba mine is derisking the Company’s future.
The Company’s ability to generate profits – which can lift substantially given
the fresh news of rising PCI coal prices – is a key differentiator of life as a
production company – compared to Cockatoo’s former life as a non‐revenue generating explorer.
As a result, Cockatoo Coal can now reasonably plan to self‐ fund its aggressive organic growth plans over then next 18+months,
without requiring support from the capital markets.
These plans include a 50% production increase in the next 1‐2 years, as well as an aggressive 5‐drill, $16m annual drilling
campaign across its Bowen and Surat Basin exploration tenements in calendar 2010.
Unquote

I still hold this stock, although well underwater, however, now looking to add to holdings in view of much better outlook.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

it is unfortunately about the ship carrying coal leaking oil. but do you guys think it is going to affect COK's prices on Tuesday?
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

kerosam said:
it is unfortunately about the ship carrying coal leaking oil. but do you guys think it is going to affect COK's prices on Tuesday?
Click to expand...

I certainly hope so! A drop in share price for COK can only mean one thing for me ......buy more!!
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Firstly, I haven't bought the stock yet, still hesitating.

COK have an average cost basis on production of A$98 a tonne - not forgetting royalties on sales they need a price for coal in the range US$105 to US$110 per tonne to break roughly even.
PCI coal is well above this price and everything augers well providing we don't see a slump back to US$70 a tonne for thermal and PCI coal being sold as thermal - as it was only last year.

Above is the gamble, but so are all the small mining stocks - bar none.

If you see PCI coal trading in 2010/11 at above US$150 a tonne and thermal over US$125 per tonne, then, it's good news for Cockatoo Coal.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

What a jump in a week for COK! I was one cent away from getting stopped out last week at 33c and a week later it is 30% up!

Massive volume today too…

Do people think this is due to the Macarthur takeover?
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Hey all

Just saw that COK have just put out a new announcement regarding the Surrat project.

Exciting stuff
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Up another 11% today - flying! Check out the volume!!!

Got the double whammy of the Macarthur bidding war and a resource upgrade:






Highlights
Increase in total of all classifications of JORC Resources in the Surat projects to 415.7
million tonnes, up 24% from 335.2 million tonnes.
A 118.6 million tonne JORC Inferred Resource has been defined for the Tin Hut Creek
project in EPCs 1134 and 813 (MDLA 430), with a strip ratio of 7.4:1 to a depth of 150
metres, over an area of 1,029 hectares.
The Tin Hut Creek Resource represents a 55.3 million tonnes, or 47%, increase on the
previously announced resource.
The Tin Hut Creek Inferred Resource is now in excess of 7.0 kilometres in length and up
to 2.5 kilometres wide and remains open to the north, south, east and west.
MDLA 430 has been lodged over the Tin Hut Creek project in EPCs 1134 and 813.
Purchase of freehold title within the Tin Hut Creek project area.
Nineteen drill holes completed for 2,070 metres since the last update, located in the Tin
Hut Creek project area.
The Tin Hut Creek project drilling program, comprising open holes and coal quality core
holes, is set to recommence following ground conditions improving after the wet weather
experienced in February and March.
A 75.6 million tonne JORC Inferred Resource has been defined for the Davies Road
project in EPCs 1041 and 813, with a strip ratio of 9.5:1 to a depth of 150 metres, over an
area of 724 hectares.
The Davies Road Resource represents a 25.2 million tonnes, or 33%, increase on the
previously announced resource.
MDLA 433 has been lodged over the Bottle Tree project in EPC 813.
Four hundred and forty six holes drilled in the Surat Basin projects for 55,280 metres.
Recent drilling has cumulative down hole coal intercepts of up to 15.9 metres with an
average thickness of 9.1 metres.
 
Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Cockatoo coal rose above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (based on from previous highs (of 2007) to lows (of 2008)). The lead up to this had been witnessing increasing volumes per day, the last being the greatest.

This last volume (Friday Apr 9th 2010) represents the greatest volume associated with a positive day for the entire history of the stock :eek:
 

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Re: COK - Cockatoo Coal

Up another ~20% today.

Been watching this one for a couple of weeks now - had it down as a buy at $0.515 as a breakup from ~12-month resistance line which would have been hit this morning on open (only paper trading at the moment as I'm just starting out).

Still has resistance at higher levels from a couple of years ago, but that's much older.

Will be interesting to see the first pullback (and the volume at this time).
 
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