PES - Pure Energy Resources

[grace]

PES going through a correction like everything, but not as bad as the banks.

Most of the csg'ers are up today.

90 mill shares x $1.50 = $135 mill Market cap

Contingent resources of 2000 PJ (on 5% of acreage)

Worth $1 mill per PJ on base case takeover prices, if they can prove that up from 2C. I'm pretty confident that they will.

If I was Arrow Energy (already holding a blocking stake), I would be getting my cheque book out now. Only going to get more and more expensive as this little explorer moves forward.

Looks very cheap to me on those figures. As QGC makes a move on RPM, before any reserves certification, my guess is that Arrow would be thinking the same.

There is still a bit of activity going on in the industry too with AGL spreading their wings. Wonder who will be next?

 

[woltage]

Does anyone know who the top 20 shareholders of PES are? Nothing available on their website

Just did a quick comparison (PJ/MC) between PES, BUL, GPP and ICN

BUL = 21284 PJ/107 Mill = 198 (top 20 - 75%)
Where estimates are P50 and their Galilee tenement holds the majority (15250PJ). Drill results are lame compared to PES though ~5m coal intercepts with little info on permeability, m3/tonne etc. Are people comfortable with how they've come to their P50 estimates?

PES = 13244 PJ/107 Mill = 123 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates (although ATP889 is P50). Good drill results (20-35m coal intercepts) with details on permeability and gas volume for each drill

ICN = 9000 PJ/72 Mill = 125 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates

GPP = 1630 PJ/6 Mill = 271 (Top 20 - 77%)
Using 2C estimates

My first (quick) effort to evaluate/compare the CSM players around atm, hope to do the remainder asap, feedback appreciated

Matthews Capital Partners also hold a significant percentage of Renison (RSN) (~20% I think) Anyone have an opinion of them?

 

[grace]

Does anyone know who the top 20 shareholders of PES are? Nothing available on their website

Just did a quick comparison (PJ/MC) between PES, BUL, GPP and ICN

BUL = 21284 PJ/107 Mill = 198 (top 20 - 75%)
Where estimates are P50 and their Galilee tenement holds the majority (15250PJ). Drill results are lame compared to PES though ~5m coal intercepts with little info on permeability, m3/tonne etc. Are people comfortable with how they've come to their P50 estimates?

PES = 13244 PJ/107 Mill = 123 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates (although ATP889 is P50). Good drill results (20-35m coal intercepts) with details on permeability and gas volume for each drill

ICN = 9000 PJ/72 Mill = 125 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates

GPP = 1630 PJ/6 Mill = 271 (Top 20 - 77%)
Using 2C estimates

My first (quick) effort to evaluate/compare the CSM players around atm, hope to do the remainder asap, feedback appreciated

Matthews Capital Partners also hold a significant percentage of Renison (RSN) (~20% I think) Anyone have an opinion of them?

Hi, you should do this analysis on the coal seam methane thread where you will find other contributers. Just a good place to keep it. Perhaps you could copy your post here over to that thread.

PES - top 20 I don't have but I know AOE own about 12.5%, and Mathews have recently topped up to nearly 20%. Top 20 should be a fairly solid number, as this is certainly a very illiquid stock.

My preferred one of those you mention is PES, and I guess if you look through this thread, you will see the reasons why. Galilee basin is new country for csg, so it will be interesting to see how that goes.

Personally, I am wary of large GIP figures until I see some quality drill results!

Cheers Grace

 

[woltage]

Hi, you should do this analysis on the coal seam methane thread where you will find other contributers. Just a good place to keep it. Perhaps you could copy your post here over to that thread.

PES - top 20 I don't have but I know AOE own about 12.5%, and Mathews have recently topped up to nearly 20%. Top 20 should be a fairly solid number, as this is certainly a very illiquid stock.

My preferred one of those you mention is PES, and I guess if you look through this thread, you will see the reasons why. Galilee basin is new country for csg, so it will be interesting to see how that goes.

Personally, I am wary of large GIP figures until I see some quality drill results!

Cheers Grace

Thanks Grace I might post in the CSM thread when I have more substantial info. I feel the most confident with PES as well, for BUL, if their Galilee tenements are removed their ratio drops to around 58. From what I could gather their estimates for Galilee were mostly based on the drill results of (I think they're called) Galilee Energy. Although, I also recall reading of plans for a LNG plant being built in the Galilee basin

Holding PES, ESG, BUL, RSN

Cheers,
Woltage

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi Woltage,

Extending on your analysis of the stocks mentioned, here's
a look at WHEN they are expected to be strongest and
weakest over the coming months, according to some
time cycle analysis ...

have a great day

paul

Does anyone know who the top 20 shareholders of PES are? Nothing available on their website

Just did a quick comparison (PJ/MC) between PES, BUL, GPP and ICN

BUL = 21284 PJ/107 Mill = 198 (top 20 - 75%)
Where estimates are P50 and their Galilee tenement holds the majority (15250PJ). Drill results are lame compared to PES though ~5m coal intercepts with little info on permeability, m3/tonne etc. Are people comfortable with how they've come to their P50 estimates?

BUL ... August /September 2008 ... 3 minor and positive cycles

06-19112008 ... 3 significant and positive cycles

05-09122008 ... 2 minor and positive cycles here


PES = 13244 PJ/107 Mill = 123 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates (although ATP889 is P50). Good drill results (20-35m coal intercepts) with details on permeability and gas volume for each drill



PES ... August 2008 ... 3 significant and positive cycles

September/October 2008 ... 3 significant and negative cycles expected

January 2009 ... significant and negative news expected



ICN = 9000 PJ/72 Mill = 125 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates


ICN ... September/October 2008 ... 4 significant and positive cycles

January 2009 ... significant and negative cycle expected


GPP = 1630 PJ/6 Mill = 271 (Top 20 - 77%)
Using 2C estimates


GPP ..... August 2008 ..... 3 significant and positive time cycles

22-29122008 ..... significant and positive cycle expected


My first (quick) effort to evaluate/compare the CSM players around atm, hope to do the remainder asap, feedback appreciated

Matthews Capital Partners also hold a significant percentage of Renison (RSN) (~20% I think) Anyone have an opinion of them?


RSN ... 10-12092008 ..... 3 significant cycles and positive news expected

17-27102008 ..... significant and negative cycle expected

=====

 

[grace]

A big buyer back again. How do they think that they are going to get 100k to 150k in quantity in one order? Or are they in fact over the other side selling at the moment? It will be interesting to watch those buy orders. Doesn't take much for this one to go up, so it is quite hard to take a large position, unless it is all prearranged.

 

[ColB]

A big buyer back again. How do they think that they are going to get 100k to 150k in quantity in one order? Or are they in fact over the other side selling at the moment?

Looks like a buyer Grace! Another order for 150,000 @ $1.45 sitting in the queue. Be interesting to see what announcement may just be around the corner.

 

[grace]

From the quarterly just out, there is quite a bit of activity coming up over this quarter, and it will be interesting to see how Tassie drills up next month. As there have been methane explosions in the past, I'm guessing it could be quite successful.

Planned activity for the September 2008 Quarter.

• Install pumping equipment on ATP806P - Dingonose-1 and commence well testing to determine flow capacity.

• Install pumping equipment on ATP852P – Cameron’s 3 and 5 wells, and commence well testing to determine flow capacity.

• Continue drilling in both ATP 852 and ATP 806 as part of the ongoing reserve certification program.

• Drilling of a further two wells in the Mt Foster region of the Fingal-Dalmayne coalfields located in the north east of Tasmanian permit SEL 32/2003.

• Drilling to re-commence on permit ATP758P.

• Continue to liase with the DME with respect to application permits ATP889P(A) and ATP965P(A) in progressing the grant of these permits.

• Joint Venture Partner Arrow to commence drilling two wells in permit ATP831P.

 

[grace]

Drilling of Dingonose 12 has confirmed that the Dingonose field extends into ATP758P. That is good news.

Dingonose/Duckworth 2C of 800PJ.

About the Dingonose Discovery

The Company has now commenced its 2P reserve certification on the Dingonose CSG discovery in permits ATP806P and ATP758P. Drilling and testing in 2007 indicated high gas content, good to high permeability-thickness, and sufficient areal extent, which are the key ingredients for a commercially viable CSG development.

The Company estimates the 2C Contingent Resource in Dingonose and Duckworth to be in the order of 800 PJ.
The Company’s current focus is in the largest, most eastern block of permit ATP806P, and its extension into ATP758P. This extensive prospective CSG acreage lies immediately to the east and down-dip of the Blackwater Coal Mine. The Turkey Creek Gas Field lies 40km to the south.

Highlights

Dingonose-12
• Coring of the Dingonose-12 on ATP758P is now well underway and results to date have confirmed the ATP806P Dingonose CSG field previously discovered by the Company also extends into this permit.
• Current depth reached is 480 meters, and total Depth is prognosed for approximately 825m.
• Approximately 15 meters of net coal have been encountered to date.
• Preliminary results from the upper coal seams confirm the presence of high gas content in conjunction with good permeability.

Kmann-3r
• The company has secured JD Drilling Rig 17 to undertake exploration of the highly potential Duaringa Basin of permit ATP758P.
• Kmann-3r was spudded on August 3, 2008 and is currently drilling ahead at 380 meters with intermediate casing to be run in the next 24 hours.

 

[Dukey]

Good news indeed - PES is looking better all the time...

this news possibly also indicates that their large tenement to the immediate north will also come up trumps - so the figures stated could be higher if that turns out to be the case....

------------
Glad to be back working at the moment to keep my mind off the market turmoil & save myself from stupid reactions !! CSGers have certainly taken some hits with the POO dropping () - but longer term nothing has changed for the energy sector - there will be fluctuations, but overall trends should be higher i think...

happy to sit tight and maybe pickup some more bargains as they come to light.
AJL holding up nicely recently too grace.
-e

 

[grace]

One by one, these csg'ers are being taken out. I think this one will be taken out too....just a matter of when.

In the meantime, a new substancial holder appears with 5.12% (3 721 538).

Whose been selling that many shares? The notice says on market.

Anyway, they just get more and more illiquid. My options I hold even more so. Be patient everyone, the writing is on the wall with this one IMO.

Actually, I'd hate to part with these at this point in time. Too early in development at this stage.

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by Grace 30th July 2008

A big buyer back again. How do they think that they are going to get 100k to 150k in quantity in one order? Or are they in fact over the other side selling at the moment? It will be interesting to watch those buy orders. Doesn't take much for this one to go up, so it is quite hard to take a large position, unless it is all prearranged

Whose been selling that many shares? The notice says on market.

Your earlier post might explain some of it Grace. I have very few in the green at the moment but at least this is one of them. I suppose I'll have to wait for the takeover! Maybe LNC might like their holdings.

 

[grace]

Sell column getting taken out today as we speak. Looks ready for a little run I think. Now that BG have missed the boat on origin, they'll be looking for some more gas!

Hope they stay away from this one - plenty of growth still to go here.

 

[grace]

I have been watching the very large transactions over the last few days off market. Mathews selling a lot of shares to arrow energy @$1.40.

Wonder when Arrow are going to make their move on pure. I guess when their share price looks better perhaps. Any thoughts?

 

[basilio]

Well Grace perhaps the longer they wait the cheaper it will become. But which company has the capacity to make a takeover now? I would have thought there is still significant unwinding of the market to come.

 

[grace]

Well Grace perhaps the longer they wait the cheaper it will become. But which company has the capacity to make a takeover now? I would have thought there is still significant unwinding of the market to come.

Anyone notice Shell sneak in and buy 14.88% of Pure Energy. With Arrow owning around 15% as well.......I wonder what is going to happen here.

Actually, this is really disappointing timing as Pure has only just started to drill on 5% of their holdings, which is over 2000 PJ contingent resources and climbing.

Shame that Arrow and Shell are going to get more upside than us Pure holders will get. We will just get Arrow shares I'm sure. I see more growth in us holders staying in Pure, than being taken over, and lumped into something larger.

At what price is the big question I guess?

 

[Dukey]

NNNooooooooooooooo!!!

No takeovers... tell them to go away Grace!

We want PES potential all to ourselves!! Has anyone announced their intentions? ... maybe just a strategic stake?

-D

 

[basilio]

BIG 30% jump today on PES. Does this look like another take out of gas reserves following the BG action on QGC? And if so will the shareholders see any sort of reasonable price?

 

[greedywolf]

hey everyone,

I hate to be the one to pessimistic but i dont think PES will make it to next christmas. Have a feeling that once some reserves are proved up, which they are aiming for by the end of the financial year, AOE will make its move. They haven't built a stake in the company to sell at a later date for a few dollars. Same goes for Shell, the only reason Shell got in was so AOE wouldn't breach the mandatory takeover provision in the Corps Act. Just a matter of timing now, once some reserves are proved up AOE will buy the stake off Shell then launch a bid for the rest of the company, after which Shell will probably launch a bid for AOE, either way PES shareholders will lose out on the full potential of the company which is sad!

DYOR!!!

 

[TheAbyss]

Director buying $300 k worth of shares at market is a very healthy sign indeed. The share price is rebounding nicely after Matthews capital sell of recently.

Primeau was already the largest shareholder before he jumped in for another 240,000 units.

Something in the wind sooner or later i suspect. Just hope they get very busy proving up resources in the interim.