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PEN - Peninsula Energy

gnealson wrote:

it's naive to think that large holders will dump their holdings onto the market at any time. Large enough holders generally wait for strength to sell into. So in my opinion, the true test of the top 20 is in play now, not a month ago. We're seeing the price tip over again. Is it technical action only, or is it because of the actions of larger holders like Pewal?

So my question is: Why would the large holders not get out when the price did return to 12c. Seeing as that would have been selling into strength.
 

I already answered this. See point 2 in my original response to Svengali. To repeat myself... I believe larger players are waiting for more clarity on sentiment shifts towards Nuclear energy. When you've got a big stake you can't jump into and out of the stock easily and it doesn't pay to make rash moves. Most have been on the register for a while, so even at 8 cents it wouldn't be a loss for them. So the fact that they haven't left yet means very little one way or the other.

Sticking to what's factual:

1) The share price had already declined to 12-12.5 cents before Fukushima. If Pewal is to be believed, he viewed PEN as over-bought at 15 cents and was selling even then.

2) After PEN fell to 5.5 cents and recovered to 12 cents, it has been sold down heavily since then by someone other than the top 20 I guess (the top 21-100 holders?).

One thing we can say is that the stock is so far being sold down since Fukushima and the chart looks fairly weak right now. Surely we should be observing what is actually happening and trying to understand and explain it, rather than ignoring what is actually happening and focussing on things that haven't changed.

Grant
 
For those who don't know, the facts have changed again today. Fukushima declared as bad or worse than Chernobyl by authorites:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/strong-earthquake-hits-japan-rocks-tokyo/story-e6frg6so-1226037789064

Anyone wondering about what a 'terabecquerel' is, whether it can be converted to a sievert, and on what basis the authorities are now being forced to upgrade the severity of the Fukushima incident to the maximum, you may find this blog page interesting:

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/04/japan-considers-raising-nuclear.html

Key extract:


I see this as pretty significant news. Chernobyl is the benchmark for Nuclear Disaster and it has now been equaled and probably exceeded with a plant that was supposedly leaps and bounds ahead of Chernobyl in terms of safety. I think this will weigh heavily on public perception of the incident as well as political actions for a long time to come.

Grant
 


You are on your own with that highly subjective view Grant.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/12/3189175.htm?site=melbourne


Clearly Fukishima isn't anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl, that is sensationalistic journalism at best.

I also find it intriguing why you and so many others both here and afar select the PEN threads to post the sensationalist general information. I have 27 uranium stocks on my watchlist and yeas there are more. However you and so mnay others single out PEN to post this and similar general articles, I wonder why if I may ask?

You seemingly have very strong views on this, attempting to counter any positive that PEN has in favour (and PEN has many positives) for a vastly negative and subjective outlook.

But why only PEN?
 
You are on your own with that highly subjective view Grant.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/12/3189175.htm?site=melbourne



Clearly Fukishima isn't anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl, that is sensationalistic journalism at best.

Finally, some factual debate of fundamentals! Yes, agreed, at this point in time, it appears that overall Fukushima has not exceeded Chernobyl in severity. Thanks for pointing it out.

Still, the jury is not out yet and there's a well established pattern with events like these. Everything is done to cover up and manage the public perception of the incident but gradually over time things often get worse. Take the BP oil spill for a recent example, or Fukushima itself with the Japanese authorities consistently downplaying the severity.


Are you sure you're being objective?

You seemingly have very strong views on this, attempting to counter any positive that PEN has in favour (and PEN has many positives) for a vastly negative and subjective outlook.

Why not discuss my views instead of me like you promised only yesterday?

Subjective is a weasel word for 'incorrect'. This is a discussion forum. Instead of just implying my views are incorrect and leaving it at that, why not demonstrate it through discussion? For instance, do you think what I wrote about the RCR valuation of PEN being 5.5-10.5 cents was incorrect? Do you agree that the market got ahead of itself when PEN rose above 11 cents? What's your current valuation of PEN? How much do you expect the DFS announcement to impact the NPV (your best case/worst case estimates)?

Grant
 

Doesnt seem sensationalist to me.

Not as bad as Chernobyl in terms of health risk or radioactive materials emitted though, but still bad enough for a (low) 7
 

Tekman that is purely a reportable level, it isn't a direct comparison with Chernobyl and so far is far from it. Suggesting otherwise at this point is nonsense.

gnealson, "subjective" is a term often used in risk analysis mening to be an individuals viewpoint and bases of views not facts. Extrapolating factual events into a subjective view doesn't make those views factual. An aspect as a facilitator I take people to task on often. It wasn't meant to be derogatory, nor was that my intent.

My question as to why you and others post this information on the PEN threads only was genuine and one I truly find intriguing. Not having a go at you I am just genuinely asking why is it that you find it necessary (your "duty" even as yiou termed it) to post this her and not on any other uranium stock?

This will be interesting how this all pans out with PEN as to who was correct and who wasn't and laso what information was relevant and wasn't. From an investment and trading perspective I can see PEN will offer a lot in the way of learnings for all. As will the Japan events.

One thing is for certain, this was an event caused by an earthquake of massive magnitude and a Tsunami causing unprecedented damage and loss of life from an event like this. It wasn't a plant or design failure, nor operator error, nor violation of safety regulations. It was an unprecedented event that knocked out power (and subsequently flow of pumped cooling water) and all other services from an entire city, not just the nuclear power plant.

Will the Japanese and all other countries around the globe now move away from idyllic coastal living, or move out of high rise apartments and office blocks from fear of anther similar event such as this. Simple answer is no they won't, logic will prevail as usual.

Like Three Mile Island, the catastrophic accident at Chernobyl was caused by gross violations of operating rules and regulations. The three events simply cannot be compared,as much as people try they simply cannot be aligned based on the hiistoric facts.

Me like many others far more knowledgable than me, believe that sentiment will once again change based on facts. The main fact that nuclear energy is here to stay.

PEN will be well situated to take advantage accordingly.
 

At the end of the day Hang we will probably be very thankful that all the scaremongering and hysterical posts about nuclear holocaust were put on the PEN threads both here and elsewhere. It has shaken out all the weak hands and put more and more shares into fewer stronger hands. It will just mean when the inevitable rises happen they will be much much higher for low cost ISR producers like PEN who will survive better during lower U prices than high cost conventional miners.
 
I find it interesting how the general concensus is so ready to compare the current situation so tightly with previous events ie 3 mile and Chernobyl with regards to the fall out for the nuclear renaissance. Mid 70s and the mid 80s. Think about it, would we be sitting hear conversing over facts on either of the previous occasions? The world is a completely different world to those era's. We are now given a tyraid of fact and fiction that is the free media on every little event. In 2011, even at the minute I can find out first hand what has occurred in Japan in a key stroke. Remember fear is in the unknown. The unknown after prevoius events lasted for years, with the web so entrenched I strongly doubt whether the same duration of inuendo and misinformation will endure.

I believe Pen will survive to take advantage of the rebound:
1. Its low cost.
2. Management has a proven track record.
3. It has Major shareholders whom appear to be hanging around.
4. Its second project, Karroo has only begun to scrap the surface.
5. Acquisition?
 
Fact 1: Fukishima is not the only Nuclear Power Station in the world;
Fact 2: There are hundreds more Nuclear Power stations in the planning stages for China, India and the rest of the world;
Fact 3: The demand for Yellow Cake is not going to evaporate any time soon.

If PEN can produce yellowcake, they will have a market. If they can sell it for a profit then PEN will be arround for a long time to come regardless of where they started out and what they did in the past. If they found uranium on their leases instead of gold and had the kudos' to mine it in the face of a lot of political opposition in the past, good on them.

Get over it, move on, cut the bulldust. If you like uranium stocks buy PEN, trade PEN and post your comments on the PEN thread. If you don't like uranium stocks, don't waste your time posting on the PEN thread.

Personally If there is a trade opportunity with PEN and I see it, I will take it. It owes me nothing, I owe it nothing and all the other crap is just background noise. Also all the crap about protecting newbies is just that...crap. There is a well worn expression on the ASF site, it is DYOR. Do Your Own Research.
 

Thumbs up from me Nulla Nulla .... succinctly put ..... nothing more to add ... well done
 
Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and now Fukushima have all put uranium sentiment on hold. With the first two, for an extended period of time. Fukushima may or may not reverberate negatively for such a period. But as a PEN holder the question for me is when to buy in the risk/reward equation. Parking money in uranium now may not be best use at this point in time.
 
Lots of platitudes tonight. Still no debate on the current value of PEN.

I take it we all agree that the 5.5 - 10.7 cent range is fair value then, and that we should only expect the upper end of that range if both the AUD/USD rate falls to 0.80 and the spot/term price rises to $70 USD/lb.

Grant
 

Definition of Platitude: A platitude is a trite, meaningless, biased, or prosaic statement, often presented as if it were significant and original.

I take umbrage at your post.

I find it offensive. It is in itself a platitude and offers nothing constructive to the determination of dealing with PEN as a short term or long term investor/trader.

I note that you only joined the ASF in April 2011 and have contributed little, other than deride the position/perspective of other longer term members of the ASF. IMO you would do well to observe and learn until you have have something constructive to contribute.
 
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