PEN - Peninsula Energy

I think it's time that the baiting of other thread participants stops and the focus of the thread returns to the topic at hand, Peninsula Energy (PEN).

Things are getting far too personal, tensions are running high and there is too much discussion of matters that do not directly relate to the company.

So please, lets refocus the discussion on PEN and leave personalities out of it.

Joe Blow said:

I think it's time that the baiting of other thread participants stops and the focus of the thread returns to the topic at hand, Peninsula Energy (PEN).

Things are getting far too personal, tensions are running high and there is too much discussion of matters that do not directly relate to the company.

So please, lets refocus the discussion on PEN and leave personalities out of it.

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Agreed Joe, but what we need is enforcement. I would love to see an end to all discussion of hangseng (good or bad) and I hope you'll respond appropriately to moderation requests because there's a pattern over 3+ years of these warnings being ignored and frustrations building up again and again with those who refuse to stick to the topic.

Where the grey area seems to be is when a post contains facts as well as bluster and personal attacks. I hope that in future the presence of any bluster and any personal attacks is enough to have the post removed and, on repeat offences, the poster suspended.

Kind Regards

Grant

gnealson said:

Agreed Joe, but what we need is enforcement. I would love to see an end to all discussion of hangseng (good or bad) and I hope you'll respond appropriately to moderation requests because there's a pattern over 3+ years of these warnings being ignored and frustrations building up again and again with those who refuse to stick to the topic.

Where the grey area seems to be is when a post contains facts as well as bluster and personal attacks. I hope that in future the presence of any bluster and any personal attacks is enough to have the post removed and, on repeat offences, the poster suspended.

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I'm determined to get this thread back on track and ensure that we return to a constructive discussion about PEN, which is what I'm sure we all want.

From this point forward any off topic posts will be removed and any personal attacks will be met with infractions. It's time to get this thread back on topic and the focus back on PEN.

There's a lot of intelligent and constructive debate in this thread and it's a shame to see the discussion get sidetracked with baiting and personal attacks.

Joe Blow said:

I'm determined to get this thread back on track and ensure that we return to a constructive discussion about PEN, which is what I'm sure we all want.

From this point forward any off topic posts will be removed and any personal attacks will be met with infractions. It's time to get this thread back on topic and the focus back on PEN.

There's a lot of intelligent and constructive debate in this thread and it's a shame to see the discussion get sidetracked with baiting and personal attacks.

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Thanks Joe
Long awaited intervention.
This is what called good mod which makes ASF distinctly different from HC.

Point taken Joe and I take my share of the blame accordingly. The last few weeks have tested my mettle, however I remained focussed and determined to ensure facts only were posted. This has gone astray since the Tsunami unfortunately.

Regardless, my apologies to all posters.

CURRENT SITUATION

So back to facts. It's undeniable that PEN is in a downward trend (until we break the downward trend line) and after the initial sharp drop and a sharp relief rally, the price appears to be fading again but more gradually this time. At the moment a pessimist might describe the chart as a dead cat bounce and an optimist might say that we're about to form a higher low, then move onwards and upward. In order to make predictions about the future, we need to attempt to understand the present happenings. So my first question is to ask:

CAN THE TECHNICALS BE RECONCILED WITH THE FUNDAMENTALS?

Referring to the most recent RCR broker report, post Fukushima, PEN is valued at:

* Optimistically (0.80 USD/AUD, $50-70USD/lb): 7.5 - 10.6 cents AUD fully diluted

* Pessimistically (1.05 USD/AUD, $50-70USD/lb): 5.7 - 8.1 cents AUD fully diluted

Note: these ranges do not take into account $40 million of financing PEN requires. RCR provides lower ranges still and even if PEN does secure an offtake agreement it'll still impact the bottom line.

So looking at those ranges, today's close of 8.6 cents falls within the bounds of the optimistic range and close to the top of the pessimistic range. The only thing we might have difficulty explaining is why PEN was trading so far above these NPV ranges in late February.

SO HOW DO WE EXPLAIN PEN AT 15 CENTS?

Given the above NPV ranges, my view is that PEN at above 15 cents wasn't justified fundamentally at any time this year using any Uranium price and Exchange rate we saw. It's my view that the peak was caused largely by a rush into the stock all at once due to positive newsflow and bullish market conditions. Now, in the same way that everyone rushing into the stock caused a rise well beyond rational valuation, I believe we could see sustained downward pressure and possibly a drop below rational valuation for a period.

CONCLUSION

PEN has what I believe is a sound business plan, operates in a safe jurisdiction, has excellent prospects of securing more sales contracts and I don't see any reason to believe the Nuclear Renaissance is finished for good. The share price will hopefully get a boost from the DFS and also from further positive news at Karoo.

However, it's hard for me to imagine sentiment shifting suddenly to the upside or the pending DFS/Karoo news adding more than 1-2 cents to the NPV so it seems to me that PEN is probably close to fair value if you think there's no overhang of scrip and possibly a little over value if you think that those who bought in the 10-15 cent range are going to continue to write off their losses as we approach June 30.

Since the price seems to be more sensitive to fluctuations in the Uranium market and fluctuations in the exchange rate, these are main things I'll be focussing on to provide signals to get back in seriously.

Constructive alternate views welcomed.

Joe Blow said:

I think it's time that the baiting of other thread participants stops and the focus of the thread returns to the topic at hand, Peninsula Energy (PEN).

Things are getting far too personal, tensions are running high and there is too much discussion of matters that do not directly relate to the company.

So please, lets refocus the discussion on PEN and leave personalities out of it.

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In this refocusing and in the spirit of a fresh start I think it is worth noting today an announcement I regard as a large positive and reinforcing where this company is going

The top 20 shareholders for the end of March was announced and it was a revelation, none of the largest institutional shareholders holdings had changed !!!!

This was after Gus Simpson told me on the Monday after the tsumani that "the three largest shareholders had told him he had access to as much as he needed to protect the companies register"

As it looks, as it turned out, Gus didn't need to spend a buck, with over 1.5 billion shares traded it turns out it was just one big churn, the major winners would appear to be the stockbrokers and sharetrading sites. It was very possible that no more than 300 million shares went around and around, down to sub six cents and back up to the nines again. Of course the tsunami and damage to the Japanese power station knocked the Uranium shares worldwide, without this catastrophe it is not inconceivable the price would be 16 to 18 cents by now. But facts are facts, and the market will reset. ( I think it is a real eye opener the way the Japanese situation dropped from the media when they had other more dramatic tv grabs in Libya)

But I digress, furthermore as announced by another poster, Gus said, (to this poster), in regards to the timetable towards production, "nothing has changed"

All sensible shareholders must be as heartened as I, here is an MD who has delivered, and as we head down to the projected start up next year, think where the company and its shareprice will be. We'll be in production, earning, paying off the set up costs, enlarging our reserves, these factors are a given

Remember we are a "yellowcake" producer, not a nuclear power provider, and yellowcake is going to be in a critical position of supply shortage. We are initially in a politically stable country, the USA, and they urgently need what we produce. Without sounding mawkish, if you had to write a script for an emerging producer I can't think of a better scenario than the one PEN is acting out

Excellent post svengali.

By the way...to other people on this thread..I do not want to be a "trader". I do want to "invest". Time will prove me right or wrong but at the moment I could not be happier with my investment in PEN. Everyone has circumstances that make their decisions in any area of life different to another. My situation makes accumulating and "investing " in PEN right for ME!!!!!

svengali said:

Without sounding mawkish, if you had to write a script for an emerging producer I can't think of a better scenario than the one PEN is acting out

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Because Joe became involved I noticed this thead on the pages this morning so thought I would have a littlelookin.

And looking at the five year monthly chart it is plain to see that the collapse is all about the failure of the Japanese reactors. This in my view is going to change sentiment for many years to come. And sentiment does not follow common sense, it runs on fear, exitement or greed.

I can think of dozens of stocks looking better than this now at this time and would suggest for some time to come.

e.g., coal is going to be very big again now (if it was not already) and there are very many others exciting areas for investment.

A mistake some have made on here is that they have fallen in love with the idea. Step back, take a few deep breaths and say, what else?

The volume of the last month was more than 100% greater than for any other month since 2006. Having said that there have in that time been some other very volotile periods which says to me PEN is prone to difficulties. And we know that has been the case with uranium. At this stage general attitudes cannot be guaged for sure in the long term so PEN may continue to have a tough road for a long time.

So what is there to create a fuss about?

Nice post svengali

Its good to see some balanced and well thought out dicussions about PEN's future on these forums. I certainly agree there is going supply issues into the future, the business its 'PEN' hasnt changed one bit.

Further, Utility deals will happen espeically with the expansion globally of Nuclear power and especially if we are trying to reduce Co2 emissions. I see the Nuclear industry will continue to have a bright future and it might take PEN abit longer to get to the SP levels of the recent months, but there is plenty of news on the horizon and PEN's operating costs are allot lower then other near term producers . I see PEN will continue to Deliver( it will just come down to whether you are a ST or LT holder).

svengali said:

This was after Gus Simpson told me on the Monday after the tsumani that "the three largest shareholders had told him he had access to as much as he needed to protect the companies register"

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What do you mean by that?

svengali said:

The top 20 shareholders for the end of March was announced and it was a revelation, none of the largest institutional shareholders holdings had changed !!!!

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Yes it's good that the big boys didn't panic, and there's two main conclusions you can draw from that fact:

1) They didn't sell because they believe that unquestionably PEN has a bright future.

2) They didn't sell because they wanted to wait for a better pricing conditions and more clarity on the impact to sentiment, and as clarity is achieved and the price stabilises, reality will set in and decisions to hold or get out will be made.

It'll be interesting to see how much the top 20 has changed in 3-6 months.

svengali said:

This was after Gus Simpson told me on the Monday after the tsumani that "the three largest shareholders had told him he had access to as much as he needed to protect the companies register"

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Unverifiable and unsubstantiated. Probably a TOS violation.

svengali said:

But I digress, furthermore as announced by another poster, Gus said, (to this poster), in regards to the timetable towards production, "nothing has changed"

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Unverifiable and unsubstantiated. Probably a TOS violation.

svengali said:

All sensible shareholders must be as heartened as I, here is an MD who has delivered, and as we head down to the projected start up next year, think where the company and its shareprice will be. We'll be in production, earning, paying off the set up costs, enlarging our reserves, these factors are a given

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According to RCR the share price will be between 5 - 10 cents approximately. Is that what you meant?

svengali said:

Remember we are a "yellowcake" producer, not a nuclear power provider, and yellowcake is going to be in a critical position of supply shortage.

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True, but surely you recognise that there's a link between nuclear power providers and uranium producers? If there's fewer nuclear power providers producing less electricity then there will be less demand for uranium, less of a shortage and lower prices for uranium producers like PEN. If sentiment remains poor we'll suffer a weakened negotiating position for sales contracts and the sales contracts will be executed at reduced prices resulting in lower profit margins. Basic supply and demand.

Grant

I was with svengali when he spoke with Gus Simpson and I can verify what svengali has posted. If you look at HC posts I posted exactly that Gus told me too that "nothing has changed". It would do some of you good to call the company and speak to Gus Simpson. The day I refer to, svengali's call dropped out and we chatted about the call and to our surprise Gus called svengali back. It was after that, that I had a chat to him as well. No lies here gents, you can speculate all you like but that is the truth.

Purd2 said:

I was with svengali when he spoke with Gus Simpson and I can verify what svengali has posted. If you look at HC posts I posted exactly that Gus told me too that "nothing has changed". It would do some of you good to call the company and speak to Gus Simpson. The day I refer to, svengali's call dropped out and we chatted about the call and to our surprise Gus called svengali back. It was after that, that I had a chat to him as well. No lies here gents, you can speculate all you like but that is the truth.

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It's unsubstantiated and unverifiable no matter how many internet personas 'verify' it.

Besides, stressing that the timetable hasn't changed seems pretty trite considering that:

* The share price has changed for the worse by over 40%.
* Sentiment towards nuclear power has changed for the worse.
* The spot and term prices for Uranium have changed for the worse.
* The number of reactors planned to be constructed has changed for the worse.
* The number of reactors under review for safety concerns has changed for the worse.

What exactly was the point of stressing that the timetable hasn't changed? Maybe Gus' socks haven't changed either, it doesn't mean anything much considering everything that has changed.

No one is arguing that PEN will fail to produce Uranium, that's not controversial at all. What is controversial and worthy of discussion for those who profess to be interested in fundamental analysis is the present value of PEN considering all that has changed so recently!

Eagerly anticipating some serious discussion of fundamentals from those who profess to be rational and sensible investors.

Grant

gnealson said:

* The share price has changed for the worse by over 40%.

Grant

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Exactly, that is where the rubber hits the road...

(click to expand)

Purd2 said:

I was with svengali when he spoke with Gus Simpson and I can verify what svengali has posted. If you look at HC posts I posted exactly that Gus told me too that "nothing has changed". It would do some of you good to call the company and speak to Gus Simpson. The day I refer to, svengali's call dropped out and we chatted about the call and to our surprise Gus called svengali back. It was after that, that I had a chat to him as well. No lies here gents, you can speculate all you like but that is the truth.

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As has been pointed out, telephone conversations with those in management are unverifiable. Had I caught this earlier I probably would have removed it, but it has now been quoted and commented on so I have decided to leave it.

However, I ask that it not be mentioned again in this thread until such time as you are able to provide written confirmation in the form of an email from Mr. Simpson. Please note that any posted email would have to be from Mr. Simpson's company email address (email headers would need to be posted) and he would need to give permission in the email for it to be reproduced in public.

Let stay on topic and stick to the facts please folks.

skyQuake said:

What do you mean by that?

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Exactly what it said

gnealson said:

Yes it's good that the big boys didn't panic, and there's two main conclusions you can draw from that fact:

1) They didn't sell because they believe that unquestionably PEN has a bright future.

2) They didn't sell because they wanted to wait for a better pricing conditions and more clarity on the impact to sentiment, and as clarity is achieved and the price stabilises, reality will set in and decisions to hold or get out will be made.

It'll be interesting to see how much the top 20 has changed in 3-6 months.

I think your just enunciating the bleeding obvious, running through the obvious, so everyone can take their pick



Unverifiable and unsubstantiated. Probably a TOS violation.

There was a witness, but if anyone doesn't want to believe what was said then that is their right but they'll be missing the point made



Unverifiable and unsubstantiated. Probably a TOS violation.

Same as above



According to RCR the share price will be between 5 - 10 cents approximately. Is that what you meant?


You are perfectly allowed to take whatever prognostication you like as to future prices, if you think it is to fall in the bracket you quote, it is probably best to get out now




True, but surely you recognise that there's a link between nuclear power providers and uranium producers? If there's fewer nuclear power providers producing less electricity then there will be less demand for uranium, less of a shortage and lower prices for uranium producers like PEN. If sentiment remains poor we'll suffer a weakened negotiating position for sales contracts and the sales contracts will be executed at reduced prices resulting in lower profit margins. Basic supply and demand.

Grant

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Once again you outline the obvious and that's fair enough, but it is delusional to think that the shortage of yellowcake that is undoubtedly going to occur over the next five or six will not keep the price up, the first principal of trade pricing is supply and demand. There are far more sites under construction, or in planning than are being closed down
As you said earlier we will see in six to twenty four months what is going to happen
The whole point of the stock exchanges is ascertain what is going to happen in the future, goodness knows that very few companies actually make money for dividend distribution, and the investors are in to be in a company that does pay a dividend, then they leave the speculatory and are valued by P/E ratios and actual cash dividend, that's where PEN is headed, those who think this will invest

Joe Blow said:

As has been pointed out, telephone conversations with those in management are unverifiable. Had I caught this earlier I probably would have removed it, but it has now been quoted and commented on so I have decided to leave it.

However, I ask that it not be mentioned again in this thread until such time as you are able to provide written confirmation in the form of an email from Mr. Simpson. Please note that any posted email would have to be from Mr. Simpson's company email address (email headers would need to be posted) and he would need to give permission in the email for it to be reproduced in public.

Let stay on topic and stick to the facts please folks.

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Understand your position now Joe, was interesting to Purd and I all the same
Let me just say that I have great faith in the PEN board who over a long time have delivered on their promises, and this trait is not so common out there let me say

svengali said:

I think your just enunciating the bleeding obvious, running through the obvious, so everyone can take their pick.

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Your page on the topic didn't cover 2, just 1. And 2 is particularly relevant considering the happenings on HC where a long time loyal and reportedly large holder (Pewal) is declaring that one third of the volume yesterday went through his account!

I'm not suggesting you hold this view, but it's naive to think that large holders will dump their holdings onto the market at any time. Large enough holders generally wait for strength to sell into. So in my opinion, the true test of the top 20 is in play now, not a month ago. We're seeing the price tip over again. Is it technical action only, or is it because of the actions of larger holders like Pewal?

svengali said:

Once again you outline the obvious and that's fair enough, but it is delusional to think that the shortage of yellowcake that is undoubtedly going to occur over the next five or six will not keep the price up,

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I feel it's my duty to outline the obvious when the obvious is that the future is uncertain and someone is posting as if it's certain. For instance, your use of the word undoubtedly above is over-confident in my opinion. There's a lot of doubt at the moment and as I showed previously, it's pretty rational to be doubting right now because of everything that has changed for the worse.

svengali said:

the first principal of trade pricing is supply and demand. There are far more sites under construction, or in planning than are being closed down

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True, so far, but misses the point. Before Fukushima there were much more optimistic expectations for the ramp of nuclear generating capacity. The glut of new Uranium explorers and producers were all anticipating a greater level of Nuclear plant building and Uranium consumption than now seems likely in the previous timeframe. At this stage all we can say is that it seems many plants on the drawing board could be delayed.

As you say, the first principal of trade pricing is supply and demand, and forecast demand after Fukushima is less than forecast demand before Fukushima, and we haven't seen the political impact fully play out yet. You can bet that many Uranium producers didn't factor a Fukushima event into their plans, so en masse, the Uranium industry was gearing up to supply a greater amount of Uranium into the future than we now might end up needing.

So it seems that instead of talking of 'undoubted' shortages, you should be doubting at least a little bit and adjusting your views on the looming shortage to reflect new information. As a wise person once said: 'When the facts change, I change my mind'.

Grant