PEN - Peninsula Energy

[Purd2]

I can't answer your questions Megacents but having chatted with Gus back in June/July @ the Canary event in Melbourne with my mate svengali, I asked him..."What is the ace up your sleeve Gus?" He reacted by turning away from me and turning back rather quickly and said "THE STAFF WE HAVE IN WYOMING"
Now I think he believes that and it is probably true...but I still think that he had future plans in his mind at that time he would no way share with us, that are now coming to fruition. I asked him that question because he exuded such confidence and spoke with such passion. I will never forget that hour and a quarter!

 

[Megacents]

That is fine Purd2 as I was not really expecting an answer to my thoughts. I appreciate your thoughts and comments on the presentation etc.

I maybe wrong, but just keep thinking there is more to come besides the highlighted milestones eg, DFS, BFS, Possible utlility offtake, mine permit etc.

I am happy to be holding and I am in no hurry to sell.

 

[Purd2]

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8433

A good read.

Here is a snippet

MA: Clearly, as the oil price has continued to appreciate people have started to look at alternative fuels. For a while the sexy ones were wind and solar, but there's very low power densities in those types of energy generation. Wind is intermittent. Obviously, solar is not a great resource to use in cold-climate countries like Canada or Russia. Natural gas is an important transitional fuel, but there's also uranium.

To me, a seminal moment in the uranium market occurred about five years ago when James Lovelock, a leading environmentalist who used to be the head of Greenpeace, said that uranium has to be a major part of our response to global warming. Before that, uranium was seen as part of the problem, not part of the solution. Clearly, the nuclear waste issue hasn't gone away but we treat the stuff a lot more effectively than we used to. The waste problem relative to the millions of tons of coil that get belched out into the atmosphere is fairly minimal.

 

[Megacents]

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8433

Then you have a read of this:

"As it is now, the uranium industry is having a hard time boosting production. There have been shortfalls from large mines, such as Energy Resources of Australia Ltd.'s (ASX:ERA) Ranger Mine and BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (NYSE:BHP; OTCPK:BHPLF) Olympic Dam Mine in Australia. Of course, Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO; NYSE:CCJ) had water problems related to reaching production at its proposed Cigar Lake uranium mine. Those are other problems."

Also include spot price aprox $70, PEN are really in the right time frame. ERA is suffering from water and reduce production (maybe similar to 2010).

"TER: What's your forecast for the price of uranium?

MA: The price could easily double over the next three or four years, and it could even go much higher. A number of these projects in places like Kazakhstan and Namibia don't even begin to make money until the price gets closer to $80 or $90 per pound."

Looks a like a good future for PEN holders. Also for those that wish to take profits over the long term.

 

[Purd2]

Mega, I was so keen to post that article that I did so before I had finished reading it. LOL

 

[hangseng]

This was always going to happen Purdy and I believe I have been consistent in that view now for over 4 years.

The uranium boom and bust left many, including so called analysts and experts, treating uranium like just another tech bubble. They didn't do enough research into the future world energy demands and the role that nuclear energy was about to play. In fact many saying uranium was now worthless and uranium stocks are to be avoided. I was told the latter by a well known Perth broker, that is now no longer a broker as his busness went belly up. Suffice to say I never took his, or any other so called experts advice. Nor did I take notice of the forum doomsayers stating the same.

PEN provided the perfect opportunity for anyone who cared to take the time to look.

• ISR was always going to be a winner in Wyoming.
• The Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal stating "Bring us your projects".
• The USA being a low risk political environment.
• Australia and elsewhere being a high risk political environment, not to mention the likes of the unthinking Bob Brown Greens followers. I see Bob even blames the Qld floods on Coal companies now due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Not only is that ridiculous, he and the greens are against nuclear energy. A source of energy now proven to be outstandinly green in comparison to coal. No rocket science there Bob...
• Low Opex and Capex processing, the key to successful projects and companies.
• China and India looking to dramatically increase the use of Nuclear Power.
• No viable cost effective solution to the oh so obvious burgeoning future world energy demand.
• PEN being unloved and hounded down by forum posters (they know not what they do, was my thoughts...), this was a major buy signal for me as they were all chasing momentum stocks based, some on little more than "rock chip samples". Most were going to have enormous Opex and Capex, if they ever got started...most haven't now.
  
  ...and the biggest yet simplest to work out as you are all stating rightly here now...
  
  
  [*]"SUPPLY and DEMAND" ...now the uranium price is rising...SURPRISE, SUPRISE, SUPRISE!!!

We are now seeing the result of the latter and the hugely positive effect it will have on PEN's bottom line profit margin.

IMO we are witnessing something very special with PEN at Lance. How much better will PEN be when Karoo results are announced (and I know they are going really well in SA) and if they "aquire" certain leases in Wyoming.

I say Karoo is going well, as I rang PEN and they stated drilling is well under way indicating they are progressing rapidly. Knowing PEN they will get the results to market as quick as they can.

I am really enjoying this...

Congratulations "Contrarians"

“Buy when there's blood in the streets” (Baron Rothschild in 1871).

 

[tech/a]

PEN from a technical view appears to have finished its run.
Strong selling volume on 13/1 and 20/1
Unless supply is exhausted (unlikely) there is a good chance PEN will have a healthy correction. 8.4c ish.

 

[Megacents]

Mega, I was so keen to post that article that I did so before I had finished reading it. LOL

That was a good reason Purd2 as it had lots of useful/good info, plus the usual bit of chest beating I re-read it a couple of times.

Thanks for the conformation of the drilling Hangseng, I knew it was moving along was not too sure if they started on the 24th. Good day for a BD

What I like about the Karoo Basin drilling is that they are looking at the locations that was drilled in the past just to conform to todays standards for JORC.

Does that last sentence sounds a bit like the Wyoming database gift?

What a 4th quarter report 2010 is going to be, full of exciting tidbits. It will be good to read!

Happy trading.

 

[svengali]

Tech/a

The larger volumes you noted on 13/1 and 20/1 and indeed all the big volume days since Christmas show at least a holding or more often a rapidly rising price on the day. From a shareholders point of view you'd have to regard this as a strength, you know it's not much fun when shares fall on big volume days !!

The fact is PEN's price is now going to be driven by announcements from Wyoming and the Karoo, potential takeovers, etc., and a rapidly diminishing time span until the commencement of a low cost production facility in Wyoming

If shareholders have to wait until we come under the spell of being in the ASX200, or the general shareholding fraternity and their stockbroking "advisors" wake up to the little gem that is PEN,................who cares.

NB/.....just the other day I read a Bloomberg report that found that investors who did not act on their "advisors" recommendations, made three times as much as those who took on board their advice

This tells me, with PEN, be careful who you listen to..............or don't listen to

 

[TabJockey]

The fact that so many posters in this thread seem to be very one-sidedly bullish actually scares me out of this stock. No doubt PEN has performed well over the last year but you can stop tooting your own trumpet now, there are many other companies that have tripled in market value this year and you don't see nearly as much back slapping as Hang Seng has been drumming up over the last month.

 

[hangseng]

PEN from a technical view appears to have finished its run.
Strong selling volume on 13/1 and 20/1
Unless supply is exhausted (unlikely) there is a good chance PEN will have a healthy correction. 8.4c ish.

I agree tech/a, "unlikely".

Love your work here tech/a but there are just so many aspects going against your thought. Technically I agree it looks as if a couple of indicators such as stochastic, may indicate that could occur, I believe it ignores what has been occurring at current levels. It also ignores the significant differences betwen now and the last run up in 2007.

The fundamentals facts surrounding PEN now simply can't be ignored. Facts that weren't in existence in 2007.

PEN is about to announce the final DFS results, another (and not the last) jorc update, outcome of the RFP responses, Karoo drilling results (expected to be significant and a game changer judging on known historical data) and the latest drilling and metallurgical results. These are all imminent announcements, that will easily nullify any low volume selling.

Top this with the almost inevitable granting of early construction activities and the very real possibility PEN is going to do an aquisition of another U players leases in Wyoming.

Yes this is fundamental vs T/A, however PEN's driver atm is fundamentals, not T/A. Also the willingness of buyers coming in to soak up the low sell volumes, and they are very low in comparison to the heavy buying up to 11.5 recently. On two occasions recently the chart indicator was only down due to a miniscule sell at closing auction, makes the chart look negative but hides the reality.

"Supply" won't and isn't dying up. IMO all we are seeing is an exiting of small day traders and as I have mentioned before and exit of a few of those that have held since the 2007 highs.

I think what we have just seen is the last of it before the next leg up, based on sound fundamental drivers. PEN is also bordering now on entry to the ASX300, permitting funds to buy larger % of PEN in portfolios.

This is one time I believe fundamentals will steam roll T/A and make a mess of the "rules" of T/A along the way.

Just my view...and we all know I have been wrong before. On this occasion though I don't believe I am and was confident enough to buy again recently.

And I haven't even mentioned funding, of which is being actively sought and an outcome expected within 6 months IMO, maybe even sooner.

I do concede, as I stated and expected, that there is strong resistance at 11.5. However I don't expect that will last long at all now. Looking at my "daily" chart with MMA's, PEN has bounced strongly of the 15day MA and didn't come close to touching the 20day MA. IMO the run ended Friday Jan 21st and it has had a very healthy consolidation since. .10 has now been tested 3 times and each time bounced back with strong buying, the last being yesterday. I believe this consolidation range is now over and fundamentally PEN is about to be driven higher to test 11.5 once again.

Looking at the "weekly" with MMA's it also clearly displays a weekly close within the high range of the previous weeks long candle wick and on the highest point of the week previous to that. Once again why I believe we have had the consolidation period and it is over, or very near over.

I am only joining in the T/A discussion as it interests me. PEN is an investment for me, one that I don't trade and merely hold LT and accumulate on dips. My recent purchase at .11 (only a small % of my holdings) is the first since 2006 that I bought on a daily high, and for good reason.

Now to set the kitchen table, in case I need to eat my humble pie if you are proved correct

Appreciate your views tech/a.

 

[tech/a]

The fact is PEN's price is now going to be driven by announcements from Wyoming and the Karoo, potential takeovers, etc., and a rapidly diminishing time span until the commencement of a low cost production facility in Wyoming

You could be correct.
I may also be.
Buyers may well exhaust sellers but at THIS point I Dont see that.

SUPPLY = SELLERS

Price has risen 350% in 3 mths I suspect a lot of the much anticipated announcements and potential for Take over is factored into that 350% parabolic rise.

The stock wont go parabolic for long .It will pause.
How many times have you seen anticipation met with a less than enthusiastic response upon announcement?

Anyway food for thought. Personally I'm out and its on the watch list.
If consolidation in this area is shallow and volumes steady on rising SP a break though would have me return but-----





I think new highs will be a lot later than sooner.---A LOT.

H/S if you have stock since 2006 a dip to 8c wont concern you in fact a good top up opportunity if you so desire.
But to have held in 2006 for 2c to see 10c (500% rise) then drop down to 1.8c isnt smart investing! (In my view).

I like to trade seeing what my investment is doing NOW not what it Coulda woulda shoulda been doing.

 

[Megacents]

The fact that so many posters in this thread seem to be very one-sidedly bullish actually scares me out of this stock. No doubt PEN has performed well over the last year but you can stop tooting your own trumpet now, there are many other companies that have tripled in market value this year and you don't see nearly as much back slapping as Hang Seng has been drumming up over the last month.

Perhaps you are right TabJockey, that other stocks have tripled in value this year. I am bullish mostly due to the sequence of announcements in the pipeline and the very bullish nature re demand and rising spot price of uranium.

To me, stock forums are for reading and a bit of research.

I do know that anything can happen and nothing is solid. PEN is looking the goods, has management that normally keep SH in the know and most announcement I read do not have ambuguity, this is important; as is the speed of reply to my enquires is most important.

If Hangseng is "tooting your own trumpet now" well I do not use that as investment advice, nor should other readers.

 

[hangseng]

Good work tech/a, and as I said I may have to eat humble pie. I just won't defrost it just yet, as I don't think I will need it. Even if I am wrong, I believe the best we would see is around 9c. And yes mate I would find that an outstanding opportunity and as with all other dips, I would not be concerned one bit.

All I can see on my weekly MMA chart is a rising MACD, strong support at 10c and a small consolidation period as I previously indicated on very low falling volumes. That isn't display heavy selling to me, far from it in fact. Also as I said I do acknowledge the LT high is a strong resistance point and if broken will form a strong support level.

My average by on PEN is now at around 3.9c, so I am very comfortable with my investment strategy. One I might add that has now contributed to massive gains in both my SMSF and my personal holdings. As I said I am not a trader in PEN, I have invested based on what I knew to be factual and what I believed would, and now in fact has and is occurring.

The other aspect that is now massively in my favour is signifciant taxation capital gain benefits. Short term traders don't enjoy this aspect, one that I value as important part of my investment strategy when investing large sums as I have done. I do trade stocks and enjoy it (also acknowledge it isn't as easy as some seem to think), but PEN is a long term prospect for me and always was and still is. Yes with hindsight one could have bought low/sold high many times over and probably made a very high (100% of profit taxable) killing. But reality is that is hindsight and nobody would have picked every high and low to perfection...that would be the holy grail, but I gave up looking for that in favour for what I now do successfully.

Thanks again tech/a.

Aside from this, I see a little rubbish from afar has snuck in here. Contribute absolutely nothing, just throw out one liner personal abuse.

 

[tech/a]

All I can see on my weekly MMA chart is a rising MACD,

I certainly Dont use oscillators or indicators particularly WEEKLY.
Daily work at the speed of an Elephant and Weekly at the speed of an Elephant on crutches.

A good trader (which you Dont profess to want to be--- and thats OK-- I dont want to be a brain surgeon--) would protect his profit--its HIS letting it drift back into the market is plain crazy.
Investors who watched 60% of their Super disappear are just as crazy.
Had they even had a modicum of economic OR technical experience (which comes with time) they would have saved a great deal of anguish and grief.

AND

They would be in a much stronger position today with new equity highs rather than chasing the old one with LESS capital.

Not a Fundamental--- Technical rant but an appeal to those involved in the stock market to understand a 200%-300% profit is RARE
Learn how to spot times of Caution and if you sell out YOU have your Profit.

If it continues on OFCOURSE youll have a re entry plan


If H/S had sold at 10c (in 2007) he would have been able to purchase 5x his current holding and be 25 x as wealthy today on that one trade!


Food for thought.

 

[hangseng]

If of course anyone knew what was to happen with the GFC at the time...very few thought it would be as bad as what it was and many so called "professionals" were caught in the wash up, especially large funds that should have known what you are now stating.

As for 5 times, using simple maths you may be correct, however it ignores what I did once the GFC had its way with us all. That was a buying opportunity like no other for me. As it was when I bought SDL at 8.4c and ABY at 15c...simply madness that I took adavantage of building a now very tidy holding both in my SMSF and personal holdings. Also my holdings in PEN from 2006/2007 weren't anywhere near as large as I have now, courtesy of the GFC and impatient traders/investors.

I found then, and still do, learning not to panic a worthwhile trait to have. I don't follow herds either, I make my own trails. As others run for the exits, I am often at/near the base buying what they don't want and then I simply wait. Far less stressful than trading, just not as much fun as getting a quick daily fix.

However all that said tech/a I agree with you 100% and will never find myself in that position again and will protect both capital and profits if need be. I watch very closely for any fundamental signal that indicates PEN may go down to such an extent requiring action. Those signs are no where near at this point in time, in fact quite the opposite.

I aslo value the MMA's I now use religously, I have found them to be extremely useful.

At present I also see no technical reason to get myself in a tizz. Looking at the chart even if 10c broke, of which I sincerely doubt, I see 9-9.5 as the next level of support not 8.4.

I have watched the trading on PEN with my live platform for the last 4 weeks every day to see what may pan out as we neared the old highs. Yes I see some leaving the building, but not that many, with as many willing to enter and all they had to do was sit and wait and let them come to them and just keep adding to the buy side with a steady stream. Not pushing the sp up, but taking all that was given up. 10c has massive support as I said, now being tested and holding on 3 occasions.

I have my pie ready though...

 

[Purd2]

The fact that so many posters in this thread seem to be very one-sidedly bullish actually scares me out of this stock. No doubt PEN has performed well over the last year but you can stop tooting your own trumpet now, there are many other companies that have tripled in market value this year and you don't see nearly as much back slapping as Hang Seng has been drumming up over the last month.

Have you sat down and spoken to Gus Simpson? I have...Svengali has and Hang Seng has. I suggest if you can't do so call him e-mail him and ask questions. You will soon be of the same ilk as us I can assure you. Cheers.

 

[mattryanshares]

Have you sat down and spoken to Gus Simpson? I have...Svengali has and Hang Seng has. I suggest if you can't do so call him e-mail him and ask questions. You will soon be of the same ilk as us I can assure you. Cheers.

I think tabjockeys statement is fair enough, granted im green as the grass and im also a PEN holder, though reading some of the posts as extremely informative as they are, they tend to have a smug side to them, or may seen to as the written word can be interpreted many ways!
I have myself wondered if they are an attempt to keep the SP up, even on the small scale that this website would attract.

Tech and H/S sparing with different points of view has been great!!! Dont eat the pie H/S but keep the analysis coming tech!!!

 

[Purd2]

I think tabjockeys statement is fair enough, granted im green as the grass and im also a PEN holder, though reading some of the posts as extremely informative as they are, they tend to have a smug side to them, or may seen to as the written word can be interpreted many ways!
I have myself wondered if they are an attempt to keep the SP up, even on the small scale that this website would attract.

Tech and H/S sparing with different points of view has been great!!! Dont eat the pie H/S but keep the analysis coming tech!!!

Just an ordinary bloke here mate...no tricky shots but a GOOD understanding of PEN. Smug..no way ! I have studied this stock for 4 years and I can see the potential. Trying to help others SEE, it seems, only attracts conflict. I will shut up now and let PEN prove the point through its share price.
Look for permitting in Wyoming, A DFS re: Wyoming, further acquisitions in Wyoming, drill results from SA...and probably news we are not expecting..Gus keeps throwing in unexpected news.
I came here to help those that might not know as much about PEN as me and interact with HS et al...You can lead a horse to water I suppose....

 

[barney]

Learn how to spot times of Caution and if you sell out YOU have your Profit.

A profit indeed Tech, and on most occasions I would agree with you ..... but selling a fundamentally strong stock in an obvious uptrend for the sake of a 10-20% retrace, then having to pay the taxman his 30%+ pound of flesh may not end up being the wisest trading decision. Each person has to make their own decision on what best suits their situation.

For those who have gotten in late, maybe cut and run is an option, but I look at the chart and ask myself, would I be prepared to short it ... Cheers.