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PEN - Peninsula Energy

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So much more to come and not far away now is what I have long waited for.

Entry to the ASX300

At this level the game will change on PEN forever with large and small fund managers alike permitted to enter PEN in a bigger way by enabling them by charter to take larger % positions.

As a spec stock not in the ASX300 most will only permit up to a maximum of 5% of a portfolios holding.

With PEN now so close to achieving the permit to mine and Hartleys indicating the very real possibility of PEN "aquisitions", this will be great to watch. Even better watching my SMSF grow at a rapid rate now.

So many said it would never happen...and now here we are about to go into the .05 increments and most likely to remain there.

Where are all the detractors now?
 
loving those .05 increments !!

This was a break out trade for me im in at .075 so im continuing to hold as its comming along nice.
 
hangseng said:
So much more to come and not far away now is what I have long waited for.




Where are all the detractors now?
Click to expand...

De tractors are in de paddock Hang Seng : (sorry couldn't resist )

Actually the way this is performing, I reckon you may need a couple of tractors to help load all your cash!!
 
LOL Barney, it is a rather large payload at the moment :$$$$$$$$

But my time to sell is nowhere near yet.

With PEN now indicating aquisitions (via the latest Hartley report and as hinted by PEN in presentations over the last few months), permitting well underway, Karoo approved and commenced, DFS and jorc upgrade imminent, construction and production not far away why anyone would consider selling is quite frankly beyond comprehension. But each to their own, but I like massive profits far better than a few $$. So far I am doing just that.

A little look at a weekly 5 year chart with my favourite indicators for you all MMA's, Volume and Price. Keeping it simple works for me. I have also included both Fibonacci retracements and Fib Extensions. You will see the next potential level of resistance (target) is around 14.5-15c.

  • The MMA's are only just commencing;
  • Notice the difference in the rise to 11 from the 2007 indicators. 2007 displayed trading and uncertainty, the current rise is definite and strong with little in the way of retraces;
  • The current candle is about as bullish as it gets. Strong price and volume increase completely shadowing the last weeks candle;
  • Fibonacci extension has now shifted to indicate 14.5-15c as the next target (ASX300 entry level)
  • 20c is now looking a very real possibility short term IMO, based on the news flow to come over the next few months.
Note: Fib Extensions are used as possible sell targets by traders. Expect a lot of pressure at that level initially and even a settling back to around 11.5/12.0 before the next move up.

Just my afternoon doodling over a little celebration brew...One very happy Hangseng today

My SMSF portfolio is now looking like something a fund manager would place prominently in a trophy cabinet in the boardroom for all clients to see Early and very comfortable retirement is now assured.

Send the LARGE paddock tractors around about 1-2years time Barney...A couple of 9630 4WD John Deeres in tandem should about do it.
 

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Champ HS

Hats off to you, your research, persistence and consistence conviction.

You have put your reputation on the line and emerged as victorious legend escalated your reputation level many folds with PEN outcome.

My sincerely thanks to your persistence which made me to re-enter at 6 cents after selling it at 4 cents.

It would have been nice to hold at the original purchase price of less than 2 cents but today even at 6 cents my holding has appreciated by more than enough my rest of portfolio has performed.

Congratulations and thanks for sharing your research which has definitely benefitted me personally a lot.

As an off the topic may I suggest if you please check ZYL and comment on ZYL thread.

Cheers
 
I have looked at PEN really hard for the last few days, Barclays had a DCF of 16c not accounting for risk. Stocks like this one tend to overshoot their price targets and then drop. If the bullish brokerage report gave a target of 10c and we are currently at 11c, what significant fundamental factors can you see to support a significantly higher SP?

I can definately see PEN running to 18-20c in 3-6months but I think that will be a bull run on Uranium stocks and the market in general. This is a rally supported by sentiment, but what about earnings potential?
 
Thanks Miner and Kgee

It has been a long road coming back to the old highs but the feeling is overwhelming one of confirmation of expectation, rather than exhuberance.

So much more to look forward to, not only this week and the next month both of which offer majors news flow. But the coming year and beyond.


Tabjockey, I respectfully suggest if you have "looked at PEN really hard for the last few days" and "Barclays had a DCF of 16c not accounting for risk" (if in fact they did) and you are still questioning earning potential and "what significant fundamental factors can you see to support a significantly higher SP".

Then you may need to do a little more looking.

It is all there to see, but will take a little longer than a few days to find it all. I have spent the last 4 years researching what is about to happen, along with a few other rather clever people. We all now have large holdings in PEN and are very comfortable to continue holding for "a significantly higher SP", one of them well into the Top 20 ...or at least was until this month.

ps. I will have a look at ZYL miner, just give me a few days as I am flat out over here at the moment. We have won a load of project work, so another great start to the year.
 
TabJockey said:
what significant fundamental factors can you see to support a significantly higher SP?

This is a rally supported by sentiment, but what about earnings potential?
Click to expand...


Hi TJ,
I agree Specs do tend to over shoot on sentiment ..... I'm no fundamentalist by a long shot, but if we throw a few numbers in the air .... (All forward looking of course until production .... but production is very close now, assuming things go to plan)

1) NPAT of $14 million in 2013
2) Sector PE ratio, lets say conservatively 20 (ERA is about 45 )

PEN market cap = say $280 million ..... still undervalued approx 30%

3) NPAT of $36 million in 2014 would give a market cap of $720 million .... a lot of headroom for the SP to increase another 200%

And 2013-2014 is only the beginning ..... If the POU continues to rise, by 2017-2018 and onward, it is feasible for PEN to have a market cap similar to PDN (maybe more )

My numbers are obviously very simplistic, and there is a bit of water to go under the bridge, but the forward fundamentals marry up pretty well with the market sentiment at the moment

ps Throw in a PE of 25-30 and the numbers could get almost scary in a few years from now ..... I'll throw to any real fundamentalists now
 
Exactly barney and the conservative P/E used by Hartleys for 2014 is only 6.8, way below peers.

Also factor in aspects such as PEN having a much larger resource than neighbour Uranerz and PEN is trading at a 50% discount p/lb to URZ.

Then we have this from Hartleys latest after PEn themselves hinted at "aquisitions"

Big Picture
"Peninsula has proven to be commercially and operationally competent and we believe that this a key factor for the attraction of the cornerstone investment by Pala. We interpret that this signals potential for acquisitive activity, which could result in a significant step up in scale for PEN. Planned production of up to 4.5mlb per annum by 2017 from its existing portfolio could be just the start of a much larger production company, in our opinion."

"In our opinion"....lol yeah right


PEN also has a Capex payback period of only 1.3 years and will have a cash surplus of $67.1M based only on 1.5M/lb p/an and the current resource estimate. No consideration of where PEN will/may be in 1 years time, of which is also expected to result in a rather large Jorc resource upgrade at Lance and intial Jorc results from Karoo.

I don't see PEN using that to pay dividends, I do see them having access to massive amounts of cash. Given some of it will be used to further develop Karoo and Lance, both of which are expected to expand greatly. IMO Hartleys "opinion" above is a very well informed and educated estimate and assumption of what is about to occur.

PEN remains completely debt free currently and has $32M cash and access to over $150M additional cash now. We are still yet to see what the result of the Request For Product (RFP) response to the US Utilities by PEN brings. However it is almost inevitable that it would include some form of take off funding arrangement.

Fundamentally the drivers fior a much higher sp stand out like a bull elephant charging...and we have only scratched the surface here.

As aluded to by Hartleys, the lions that may be looking to eat PEN better get out of the way...They are on the menu.

 
Hi Hangseng
this is the first time I have ever posted on a forum but have been lurking for several years.
I would like to thank you for all the information that you have researched and generously
shared.
I bought in 2009 at .052 and watched my shares go down to .029 at one stage. I still held on believing in the company thanks to your continuing posts. They kept me confident I had made the right descision and the company was well managed and on track.
I now believe 2011 is going to be an amazing ride for all Pen holders.
 
Thanks grenat, enjoy the ride mate this has just begun.

Here is a thought for you to ponder. ARMZ bought the Uranium One assets in Wyoming for about what PEN has in cash right now. Uranium One is close to production readiness.

If the Russsians don't get their way in the US for an export license, this will most likely be onsold again. The Russians won't be happy unless they get an export license.

Now go back to the Hartleys comment of "acquisitive activity"

Watch this closely IMO, very closely.
 
Signifcant announcement on three major aspects.

1. Contuinuation of "Multiple stacked rollfronts" - This I have long stated is a major success factor of Lance (PEN) that is required to provide for a potentially very large resource. This factor has not only continued but is consistent throughout the project.

2. It will add significantly to the "Current jorc resource" - this will not only display my long held belief that Lance could potententially go over 100M/lbs (more like 150), it will provide for for much improved metrics in the DFS.

3. The fact they have indicated "as recommended by our funding advisor" for the metallurgical testing for vanadium. This is indicating clearly they are going to source alternate funding (as in bankers etc) and not use the $100M available from PALA or the other forgotten $50M they have access to. Also the fact they are now consistently seeking to expand on the vanadium credits. This, if proven as expected, will lower the Opex significantly and they are already among the 3 lowest Opex indicated of all the uranium players.

They have crammed this announcement displaying so much that is going on behind the scenes. We can look forward to some rather special information flow and soon IMO. The reporting from PEN has been first class, even a benchmark for other developing companies. Under promise and over deliver by consistently keeping shareholders informed.

So many do the opposite unfortunately.

Happy Birthday to me, the perfect present for a PEN holder
 
The massive single 6M buy taking down the wall at 11c with less than a minute to close, $660,000 in one hit was no small retail trader.

That was definitely a significant positive signal of what is to come and along with that very significant announcement, the perfect gift for me today. Very few shares traded at the lower 10.5, trading most of the day at 11c and the wall of buyers just kept building.

None of this is coming as a surprise to me and IMO PEN is about to make so many eat their words...and soon. PEN is rapidly de-risking now.

PEN now sitting at an undiluted market capitalisation of just under $220M. Within striking distance of inclusion in the ASX300, the level that will permit large fund managers to take much larger positions. So today may simply be one (or more) getting set for the invetible.
 
Happy Birthday Hangseng (what a good day for an announcement) and thank you for more information, as you put it to ponder on, which I certainly am doing.
 
I see 1m shares bought
at 3.59 through commsec but don't see 6m???

 
mattryanshares said:
I see 1m shares bought
at 3.59 through commsec but don't see 6m???
Click to expand...

Hi Mat,

In fact in the 30 seconds from 3.59 and 27 seconds pm till 3.59 and 57 seconds pm there were 7,092,685 shares purchased.

As HangSeng pointed out ... not exactly small change .... looking forward to the open tomorrow
 

Happy Birth Day HS and Congratulations

May be your stars are shining and with lunar position (where is Trader Paul to undertake his analysis on HS birth day and PEN connection) probably the astrological connection working for you.

Best of luck and enjoy PEN gift
 
barney said:
Hi Mat,

In fact in the 30 seconds from 3.59 and 27 seconds pm till 3.59 and 57 seconds pm there were 7,092,685 shares purchased.

As HangSeng pointed out ... not exactly small change .... looking forward to the open tomorrow
Click to expand...

Yeah but he said there was a 1 off 6m purchase i could only find a 1 off 1m purchase, there has been another this morning.

Also new announcement.

NRC ISSUES DRAFT LICENSE FOR ANOTHER WYOMING URANIUM
PROJECT
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), has issued a draft Source and Byproduct
Materials License Number SUA-1598 to UR-Energy Inc. (URE) for its Lost Creek in-situ
recovery project located in Sweetwater County, Wyoming, USA.
URE have been granted a brief amount of time to review the Draft License and supply
suggested changes to the NRC prior to the document becoming final. The issuance of the
final License will conclude the NRC’s review and licensing process.
This development is another example of the improved permitting environment that is
supporting the progress being made by emerging uranium producers in the U.S.
Peninsula lodged its applications for a Combined Source and 11e.(2) Byproduct Material
License with the NRC on the 31st December 2010.
 
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