PEN - Peninsula Energy

[Jewels]

Looks like PEN is stagnating with the Uranium price. We know commodities are cyclical, so over the next 12 months we should expect a uranium price rise, then a capital raising, further dilution, followed by a takeover from one of the top 20.
I've turned from positive to negative on this stock, not from the resource in hand, but what appears to be machinations from behind closed doors.
Be interesting to revisit this post in 12 months and see how the crystal ball performs.
Ciao.

 

[Stormtrooper]

Looks like PEN is stagnating with the Uranium price. We know commodities are cyclical, so over the next 12 months we should expect a uranium price rise, then a capital raising, further dilution, followed by a takeover from one of the top 20.
I've turned from positive to negative on this stock, not from the resource in hand, but what appears to be machinations from behind closed doors.
Be interesting to revisit this post in 12 months and see how the crystal ball performs.
Ciao.

Hi Jewels,

Do you have a spreadsheet/timetime?

Was interested in seeing what outflows & when current capital will expire. Don't forget the $22M due (conditions apply

Will the further capital raising / dilution be to get Lance operational, or are you referrring to completeing Karoo (Reit Kuil contract - still has a few hurdles to overcome before unconditional) or is the the Australian purchase that the capital raising will be requried for.

Doesn't need to be to involved.

FWIW - my take (warning don't read as it may contain conflicting views ) ,if timelines for GEIS/SEIS is met (as they were for SER) then SML being issued this year is high & as such PEN taking that giant leap from explorer to producer & jointing an elite group (from memory 9 U producers inthe world control 90% of the ore mined.) will result in a rerating.

http://www.proedgewire.com/nuclear-energy-intel/concentration-in-the-uranium-mining-sector/

Prior to this with GEIS/SEIS issued & certain sale contractural obligation met will result in a further $22m inthe kitty.

Dilution to get to producer is something I can live with if the end result will be the birth of a cashflow positive entity.

Thanks

 

[colossus]

stormtrooper,
the "big 9" will no doubt have their eyes and ears on the progress of any potential newbies to U mining, does this again raise the "potential takeover target" conversation?
in any case, the interest will increase as the progress towards all permits gets closer IMO.

 

[Stormtrooper]

stormtrooper,
the "big 9" will no doubt have their eyes and ears on the progress of any potential newbies to U mining, does this again raise the "potential takeover target" conversation?
in any case, the interest will increase as the progress towards all permits gets closer IMO.

Hi Col,

With the SER issued & updated on ADAMS over the weekend (& on time to I might add ), it makes a good first step.

Just need the GEIS/SEIS as per timeline & we are in a position to tick the last box for SML & we will then be 'considered' as a producer...would have to be a positive...wouldn't it?


Regards

 

[Karlos68]

The opportunity to buy up BIG has never been better.

:bs:



Decided to have a mess around with a Monthly Candle chart.
Note the break in Williams %R trendline is a safe long term entry point.

Awesome news is Share Price touches lower trendline a few months before Williams %R break.
June/July, possibly August low is still looking hot fellas:bananasmi

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I now lie 16th in the ASF Competition with my PEN pick.

For those with a fundamentalist bent I was recently sent a link by a Swedish friend who trades U within the EU.

ESA quarterly spot uranium price

Starting from 2011, ESA publishes a spot price indicator on a quarterly basis, provided that there are at least three spot contracts concluded by the EU utilities (excluding exchanges and loans), and that the price indicated is fixed and not expressed as a formula.


ESA average uranium prices


ESA quarterly spot uranium price
EUR/kgU ESA quarterly spot uranium price
USD/lb U3O8 Number of spot natural uranium contracts concluded by EU utilities (including purchases, sales, exchanges and loans)
Q1 2011 118.80 62.51 6
Q2 2011 101.17 56.00 6
Q3 2011 n/a n/a 4
Q4 2011 n/a n/a 6
Q1+Q2 2012 97.53 48.64 6
Q3 2012 n/a n/a 0

Disclaimer: the statistics and data analysis provided by ESA are for information purposes only. ESA does not bear legal liability for making use of them. ESA ensures confidentiality and physical protection of the commercial data.


Methodology

To calculate the quarterly average price (simple average), the original contract prices are converted, using the quarterly average exchange rate published by the European Central Bank, into EUR per kilogram of uranium in the chemical form U3O8.

To establish a price which excludes the conversion cost if it was not specified, ESA applies a calculated quarterly average conversion spot price indicator (based on conversion price indicators provided by consulting companies).

The date of signature by ESA is considered as the contract date.

It means bugger all to me, but the fundamentalists may have an update on the Uranium price, and forward projections.

gg

 

[Stormtrooper]

stormtrooper,
the "big 9" will no doubt have their eyes and ears on the progress of any potential newbies to U mining, does this again raise the "potential takeover target" conversation?
in any case, the interest will increase as the progress towards all permits gets closer IMO.

Hi Col,

Whilst not PEN related, it is related by proximity.

Interesting article of the expected U price rise & USA needng to produce more U.

Touches on URZ (ISL mines in Wyoming) could be a target for Camevo or U One who operate inthe Powder RIver Basinin Wyoming

" Look for producers and near term producers in the United States who are fully permitted. U.S. utilities need a major increase of uranium mining to power its 104 reactors or else the lights could go out.

One company I have been bullish on for some time as I believe it may be a critical part of the U.S. uranium supply solution is Uranerz Energy (URZ) who is in construction of the Nichols Ranch Project. The project should be completed this year and for some time I have believed that URZ could be a target for Cameco or Uranium One who operate nearby in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2...ghtest-spot-right-now-in-the-resource-sector/

 

[hangseng]

Not saying that PEN has had the same treatment outlined in this detailed research report (although I believe PEN has been subject to at least some of this activity) provided on another forum. However it puts paid to the theory that trades (short or long) would only show up as UBS or Citi Nominees. It could be any number of brokers aligned with the Prime Brokerage agreement. As we can't get data relating to the Prime Brokerage agreement it can't be proved nor disproved.

It does display how anyone aligned with this activity would find supportive argument for Securities Lending agreements (Prime Brokerage agreements such as in place with PALA shares), algorithm trading and broker "dark pools".

How can it be that trades go through when the stock is in voluntary suspension? Why is it short trades can go through with being reported?

Worth a read for those inclined to....Would love to see a detailed analysis of PEN trading such as this one since the Prime Brokerage agreement was put in place between UBS and Citi Nominees over PALA shares.

Credit to "Ritchie" on "X" forum.


"Although not related to PEN, this information may be of interest to many. Found this on another forum on a different stock, but it may be relevant to PEN's situation (or maybe not you can all make up your own mind).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/129258881...-to-CDU-LYC-BBG-and-EGP?in_collection=4167210

Ritchie"


An excellent summary of the above report (full report is 86 pages) from another person to me offline:

"The fact that manipulation is difficult to prove and prosecute shouldn’t prevent wider acknowledgement that market manipulation on the ASX does in fact exist and is sanctioned by the system of governance in place.
It manifests in a variety of ways as has been outlined in research pertaining to CuDeco where fund managers acting through groups of brokers and where sympathetic brokers acting in their own right can exercise control over pricing levels through:

• The extensive use of proprietary trading algorithms and which have resulted in;
• Down Tick anomalism that consistently defies statistical norms and suggests a high degree of manipulation in forcing lower prices, and
• Dominance over the setting of prices during pre-trade and close-of-trade auctions;
• The selling of shares back and forth to themselves (i.e. trading churn) with large orders distributed amongst a large number of brokers thus camouflaging the activity;
• The re-balancing of holdings without price discovery through extensive off-market transfers and through trades executed in dark pool venues;
• Using the system of short selling as a manipulative trading tool whereby downward pressure on the share prices occurs through short selling in the market and where adjustments to short exposures are done off-market where price discovery is avoided. The activity suggests collusion by those with short exposure and those who are willing to supply shares off-market to reduce those exposures;
• Wrong footing and panicking retail investors through tactics such as deliberately selling down announcements that herald major developments for the company;
• Panicking investors by using large buy bids to support the price and then suddenly selling into them to give the appearance of price weakness but where the buying and selling has been between related entities;
• Capitalizing on trading volatility by engineering price falls in trading between themselves (e.g. Aug18, 2010) and thereby triggering the margin limits of exposed investors and creating irrational panic amongst retail investors thereby leading to accelerated price falls;
• Camouflaging extensive levels of wash trades by putting many of the trades through brokers with large numbers of retail clients;
• Taking advantage of a settlement system where the brokers used for high volume institutional wash trades are not identified on the register, thus further camouflaging their trading activity;
• Taking advantage of unreliable reporting systems to disguise trading activity as evidenced by substantial changes in short positions not being matched by corresponding changes in stock lending& stock borrowing data, and where for example a large increase in open positions is usually not reflected on the register by corresponding falls in the lenders holding"

PEN positive announcements continue and the stock continues to drift downward. Why is it such an unloved "dog stock" (not my term) so close to final permit issue and production garners so much forum attention and the attention of algorithm (BOT) trading? Why would they bother?

 

[didier85]

Do you think its possible management are involved in these activities then? I've noticed alot of upticks in volume and price just before the biggest announcements the last couple years (around nov-dec) with the final permits and the 2011 'imminent' dfs...

but along these points, on manipulation/shortselling etc, I personally believe part of the markets'/indices rises this year is much to do with shorts being burned and being forced to buy, as much as good economic news and money printing stimulus etc.

that may be why there's a way to go in the markets this year, despite it being overpriced.

meanwhile the material sector in australia and specs like PEN continue to be beaten down, if not just from shortselling but quite possibly, even in the majority of cases, activities mentioned in this report.

 

[hangseng]

Do you think its possible management are involved in these activities then?

No idea, nor am I implying they are or aren't. I do believe they surely must have knowledge of the Prime Brokerage agreement in place as it was announced by PEN on 3 occasions that I found, with PEN website links to them posted here. If they aren't aware of the terms and conditions of the agreement, especially in relation to what UBS can do thereafter (shorting, loan to other parties etc) under the agreement, I would also be very surprised.

In my opinion the UBS/Citi Nominees Prime Brokerage agreement (of the PALA shares held by Citi), along with aspects your put forward made for the perfect storm in a negative manner relating to the PEN sp.

The more I have looked at other companies that had securities lending agreements in place the more I believe they offer absolutely no benefit to long term investors in a stock, in fact IMO they are highly detrimental, regardless of being legal. They are secretive and fly in the face of the so called "open and transparent market" mantra of the ASX, as do BOTs, dark pools etc.

As nobody can 100% identify what UBS has done with the stock under this agreement, the detrimental affects can't be proved nor can they be disproved. However the relevant clause of the agreement displays clearly what UBS can do with this stock at their will unabated.

IMO it is simply naïve to believe UBS have simply held this stock (PALA stock) in caretaker mode for Citi Nominees. IMO they would have traded the hell out of it (including loaning to other parties) since the agreements inception 2 years ago.

Just in case a certain forum posters self proclaimed "TSI" proves to be correct I placed a 4m order at 1.9c, that may or may not get filled. Not for one minute do I believe he has a "TSI", but he has been suprisingly accurate to many (only on PEN) implying something other may be the case. If does then it will be an outstanding entry point on PEN and I will then be holding for the inevitable ride back up. However I won't be buying just yet whilst the BOT trades away at the stock.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have noted many naysayers creep in to this thread.

I am even 8th, with five others in the ASF Stockpicking competition, not bad in this climate. No gain no loss since the beginning of March. Not a bad show compared to other miners.

Why do people like to knock PEN, a brave explorer of uranium with a scintillatingly talented board and team?

Less of the negativity please.

gg

 

[yuro]

Hey Col, good to see the DSEIS come in early. Only eight days ahead of schedual but better than eight days late!
The 45 day public comment period begins following publication of a notice in the Federal Register which is now expected on March 29th.. With the great team we have in Wyoming everything is going a little better than expected imo.

In the Matter of
Strata Energy, Inc. (Ross In Situ Recovery Uranium Project)
Docket No. 40-9091-MLA; ASLBP No. 12-915-01-MLA-BD01
Dear Administrative Judges:
On December 10, 2012, the Staff notified the Board that it was extending the issuance date of its Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (DSEIS) to March 29, 2013. The Board issued a revised general schedule for this proceeding on December 11, 2012 reflecting the Staff’s revised DSEIS issuance date. The Staff is hereby notifying the Board that its DSEIS was issued and made publicly available today, March 21, 2013. It can be accessed in ADAMS at Accession No. ML13078A036. The Staff has notified the parties that the DSEIS is publicly available and has provided them with the Accession number.
Respectfully submitted,

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Can anyone explain why I am 17th in the ASF Stock Pick Competition this month and PEN is more than 6% down.

Is it a DAWG?

gg

 

[colossus]

Yuro, i wonder if we'll get an announcement soon re the early works construction as eluded to in the optimisation update announcement.

GG, do you mean DAWG - Dammed Awesome When (it) Gets (there) - i.e.when they get all the Approvals.

 

[Karlos68]

PEN aint no DAWG.

PEN is trending down GG.

Still on track for my mid year low prediction

 

[madjohn]

PEN aint no DAWG.

PEN is trending down GG.

Still on track for my mid year low prediction

View attachment 51522

karlos no big deal -daily turnover is small -kids play-if you watch the play -you know someone is deliberatey selling it down-kiwis has small brain.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Can someone tell me exactly.

1. What PEN do.
2. How competent management is.
3. How are they slaves to the Uranium price.
4. When they are next going to market to dilute present shareholders.

gg

 

[Zubana]

1. Presently a prospector for Uranium deposits - Wyoming, USA and Karoo, South Africa, and at some not too distant point another tenement in Australia? In the next 18 months a producer of yellowcake. Now would be the time to buy and hold.
2. IMHO management here is an 8-9/10. Nobody's perfect, but there's impressive depth of experience and capability. High levels of comfort on this one.
3. Usual leverage situation to the underlying commodity. At current spot price they're break even. At current contract price their gross margins are circa 50% (say it's $40/lb and sell at $60/lb). Add 15% to Uranium price (now $70) - their margin goes to 75%; ie 15% U price increase; 25% profit increase.....capisce!
4. Not before Jan/Feb 2014 based on present cash burn + available reserves.

This may appear a dawg, but it is in fact a diamond in the rough that will emerge over the next 3-4yrs.

 

[Karlos68]

if you watch the play -you know someone is deliberatey selling it down-kiwis has small brain.

Another forum (that received a good baseball bat kneecapping) had members who concluded a suspended forum member by the name of El Capo manipulated the share price to hit 7.5 cents approx a year ago. The reason they felt he did this was due to himself predicting a month beforehand he felt 7.5 cents would be the high for the rally and in turn would create himself status on the forum due to nailing the high.
Incredibly this conspiracy theory got some traction, I thought it was ludicrous as I feel El Capo simply used a Fib retracement to predict the high.
As it appears you firmly feel someone is manipulating the SP madjohn, do you have a suspects name or telephone number so I can phone this individual to ask the hard ass questions and report back my findings to the forum

If you should wish to continue to back your arguements with comments as "kiwis has small brain", watch this video.

 

[yuro]

Hi Col, I haven't enquired about early construction as yet although I would think the Wyoming summer would be the ideal time to lay foundations, drill DDW's etc. In my opinion the path forward has been rigorously thought out and the minutest details taken care of.
Strata has always thought well ahead, Gus at first as evidenced by the recruitment of Ralph Knode CEO of Strata, who recently was Director of Operations and Construction for a joint venture between Cameco and Kazatomprom.
Then there is Mike Griffen with 35 years experience in the industry, his HSE background will be invaluable. Also, he has been through the NRC License Amendment process with another company, which will be very handy for Kendrick/ Barber.
Michael Butcher, our CFO and a former local county administrator deals with the local governments ( most important). He's probably responsible for the recent scholarships offered to Crook County graduates and Moorcroft sponsorship of family nights etc. Strata has excellent ongoing local relationships in my opinion.
Michael Borst VP of Geology." His ISR-specific experience includes geology management services from development and delineation drilling to wellfield design and construction, wellfield operations, and reclamation. He has managed planning, budgeting, and supervision of project exploration activities across Wyoming and Western Nebraska, helping to identify and evaluate new production center prospects. Mr. Brost also has extensive experience in landowner and regulatory relations."
With these men in place and the IDB's, if successful, becoming available within months I can see Ross area being a hive of activity in the third quarter.
In the meantime there is Karoo..