PDN - Paladin Energy

reece55 · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

runningrugby said:
Totally Agree with Waz....
Those that 'got on' at 7.40 will be going
to bed tonite, sleeping pretty well!

In at 7.52 today..........

That support of 7.40 ish is super strong and once it got down to that level, someone hit the buy button with umph......

Let's see how far this will take us, the fundamental picture is there, now we just need to see some more positive movement and price action. Realistically, I am very surprised it gone down this far.....

Cheers
Reece

runningrugby · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

i must have got in a little bit after you at 7.54!
i have been waiting for this price for a long time.
i thought i had missed the boat forever..
just about to crack open my third 'crownie'!!

hacheln_mice · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I got into this on the break of that intraday flag at 7.64. However, the intermediate trend is still down. So no celebrating yet.

reece55 · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

hacheln_mice said:
I got into this on the break of that intraday flag at 7.64. However, the intermediate trend is still down. So no celebrating yet.

Agreed HM, we must always keep that picture in mind.....

However, we could be experiencing a little exhaustion gap happening today, specifically if we get a close on the highs. Would be a pretty bullish day in an otherwise very bearish intermediate chart.....

Cheers

Fab · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

In at 3.32 on PDNJMD warrant I believe this one will bounce back strongly from now on as it has just bounce back at the bottom of the bollinger band very bullish sign to me. As well as the fundamental have not changed .

hacheln_mice · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

This is what I'm seeing right now. Target for now is the upper border of downtrending channel.
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eMark · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
Not sure why PDN is falling so hard. I think it is being oversold based on specialist report I read last week. Here is what it says:

Very interesting article. Would you mind validating your source, and when it was published? Thankyou.

Fab · 9 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

eMark said:
Very interesting article. Would you mind validating your source, and when it was published? Thankyou.

I believe it was in the Eureka report this week or last week. Anyway the bottom line is Uranium is far from being dead and my belief is that PDN is a real buy at current level. That is why I bought some more PDNJMD warrants today.

Sean K · 10 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Is there some knife catching going on here? Or cunning investing?

Looks dangerous to me. Still the best U play probably, but that market cap has always confounded me.

Anyone got the latest attempted funnymentals on this? And how's the ramp up in production going? After much bleating by some last year about this being 'on track' to deliver early this year, it didn't quite cut it from what I've read.

Very disappointing that the attempted break up didn't follow through. My hesitation saved me, although a stop would have stemmed the bloodletting. Now, support at 7.50 and 8 ish looks shakey to me. Under 200d ma support now as well....

Good luck longs, and those picking bottoms.

waz · 10 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

In the first few mins this morning PDN went up to 8.17 and has now fallen below $8 again.

Any takes for how low it will fall today?

This compares to ERA which is up 2.74%

alankew · 10 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I called the company last week and the MD returned my phone call last night at 7pm-was pretty amazed by that-especially as i dont actually own any PDN but bought a CFD.He was very bullish about prospects and said that they will have news on Malawi to announce this month which will be positive(wouldnt elaborate)also asked him about the hedging position which has been mentioned earlier in the tread and said that all was in hand,SMM they are happy with the situation as it is and if they do want the rest of the shares will not pay anywhere near what has previously been offered.My own personal take on current situation is that they have come under fire from a pretty successful short selling campaign-for what purpose i dont know but he did say that institutions have been buyng at these levels.Volume was indeed quite high yesterday and again my own personal feeling is that this is reminiscent of what happened to ZFX and also that at these levels they would have to be considered a target

eMark · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PALADIN RESOURCES LTD (PDN.TO)

At 3:59PM ET:

7.45 +0.59 (8.60%)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PDN.TO&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

alankew · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Mark any reason for this rise that you knowof-this is not your ordinary rise on the back of a good Wall st thats for certain

PhoenixXx · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Within the last 3 days, it has been 2 times the sp slumped to $7.40/$7.65 and instantenously pulled back with a strong rally up to $8-ish mark.
I'm wondering is this a genuine support or merely just a dead cat bounce? my opinion is the latter one though.

dj_420 · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

alankew said:
Mark any reason for this rise that you knowof-this is not your ordinary rise on the back of a good Wall st thats for certain

i think you will find PDN has been very very very oversold. uranium came right off. although there have been teething problems with commissioning of plant PDN is first new producer in years. all other uranium hopefuls are looking at a long long wait before producing.

PDN should be commissioning second mine in next year or so which will place it in a great position to finally start pulling in some large earnings.

what is the market cap at now? i mean PDN have come off highs by around 30% so they would be quite an attractive target now.

Sean K · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

dj_420 said:
i think you will find PDN has been very very very oversold. uranium came right off. although there have been teething problems with commissioning of plant PDN is first new producer in years. all other uranium hopefuls are looking at a long long wait before producing.

PDN should be commissioning second mine in next year or so which will place it in a great position to finally start pulling in some large earnings.

what is the market cap at now? i mean PDN have come off highs by around 30% so they would be quite an attractive target now.

I agree, DJ, was probably always going to be issues early, and they have so many other projects in the pipeline, but putting a 'valuation' on them is almost impossible IMO. I thought they were cooked at $5, just because they were half the value of Woolies, or something, and just had debt! Certainly a long term story, but picking bottoms, etc here is dangerous. Just go with trends for the moment I reckon.

Fundys can attempt to poo poo me with some solid facts and figures if they like. Good luck!

dj_420 · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN possible looking like a reversal. fundamentally we have seen more problems at cigar lake, delaying production by another year to 2011. further delays will place upward pressure on spot price.

technically PDN been in downtrend since SMM takeover. PDN showed false breakout of downtrend last month. sp has found possible bottom around 7.50 mark which was support last spike down and longer term.

would now like to see sp break above 8.25-8.35 mark on volume and see a sustained rise to break downtrend.

might be noted that MACD is converging and looks like crossing

56gsa · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Mkt cap of PDN is just under $5bn which is about where it was before the SMM takeover (when $10 it was $5.2bn). Thus the current problems with processing ore have negated any upside from control of SMM.

ABN still has target of $12 but this is based on pre-SMM research (April). In this they had EPS of 13c for FY08 & 49c for FY09 & 63c for FY10. Presumably this would now have been diluted.

Consensus EPS on aegis for FY08 is now 20c and FY09 is 38c. There are 3 strong buys, 3 buys, 2 holds and 1 sell on their broker coverage.

I guess PDN is still in between being rated against its cashflow, versus its potential. If you take its JORC resources of 197mlbs, add SMM's 43mlbs resources, and multiply this by US$22/lb (what PDN paid for SMM), you get a very large number.... US$5.2bn in fact (A$10/sh) ... but SRX's takeover of EMC was even higher (US$30) which gives you US$7.2bn (A$14/sh) ... and Areva takeover of Uramin - not sure what that was at but presume higher cause Uramin was close to production?

Anyway - assuming price of U does not plunge - does this takeover value provide something of a floor for the PDN price - at current prices someone could come in and offer $10 a share for PDN, claim a 25% premium over previous months avge price, and potentially get PDN (a producer) for what PDN got SMM... seems cheap

but then on cashflows basis people will still mark PDN down on production hiccups and also delays in progress with Kayelekera...

has bounced a couple of times of $7.50 - is that a strong support level now?

Fab · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

56gsa said:
Mkt cap of PDN is just under $5bn which is about where it was before the SMM takeover (when $10 it was $5.2bn). Thus the current problems with processing ore have negated any upside from control of SMM.

ABN still has target of $12 but this is based on pre-SMM research (April). In this they had EPS of 13c for FY08 & 49c for FY09 & 63c for FY10. Presumably this would now have been diluted.

Consensus EPS on aegis for FY08 is now 20c and FY09 is 38c. There are 3 strong buys, 3 buys, 2 holds and 1 sell on their broker coverage.

I guess PDN is still in between being rated against its cashflow, versus its potential. If you take its JORC resources of 197mlbs, add SMM's 43mlbs resources, and multiply this by US$22/lb (what PDN paid for SMM), you get a very large number.... US$5.2bn in fact (A$10/sh) ... but SRX's takeover of EMC was even higher (US$30) which gives you US$7.2bn (A$14/sh) ... and Areva takeover of Uramin - not sure what that was at but presume higher cause Uramin was close to production?

Anyway - assuming price of U does not plunge - does this takeover value provide something of a floor for the PDN price - at current prices someone could come in and offer $10 a share for PDN, claim a 25% premium over previous months avge price, and potentially get PDN (a producer) for what PDN got SMM... seems cheap

but then on cashflows basis people will still mark PDN down on production hiccups and also delays in progress with Kayelekera...

has bounced a couple of times of $7.50 - is that a strong support level now?

I personally think PDN is a very strong buy based on the analysis I posted few days ago. I bought some more warrants around $7.50 a couple of days ago.
The Uranium story is here to stay as per shown by the news today that BHP is trying to get the government to let them sell some to China. I believe a producer like PDN is a gold mine in the current market and even though the P/E looks expensive it is probably because this industry is not as well known as others. In a different sector SEK has an expensive P/E but keeps rising too

56gsa · 12 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

yes thanks for that post fab - interesting read - looks like your warrant are doing well atm. I see BHP is now talking 2013 for its Olympic Dam upgrade to be on line and has created a separate unit to manage this including its uranium portfolio ...

PDN - Paladin Energy

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