PDN - Paladin Energy

[dlineinvestor]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN has gone past the 61.8% retracement. If it doesn't turn soon it will turn to the support level of $8.17. I would like to think that the SP will turn around before then. $8.40 is the half way price from todays close $8.62 to suport of $8.17. At this rate of decline since it's high PDN is dropping an average .30 per week. One more week and a half gives us $8.17
IMO it is unlikely it will break support. Weekly volume is declining, the only indicator we have to go on at present so a turn around before $8.40 could be expected.

 

[Holdon]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Insto's will take it down to close to $8 and take the panic sellers out on double top theory then it may go gangbusters.....IMO....$8.15 and I might consider it as a long trade...maybe.........

 

[philby3]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

hi, as you guys understand a lot more than me regarding SP & the market, I'm just wondering if anyone can give me an answer to a couple of questions:

1) How long will the Areva hearing generally take before a ruling/conclusion is arrived at, and, what are your opinions on the outcome/SP if the ruling is a) in favour of PDN or b) in favour of Areva.

2) If the ruling is in favour of Areva, is the quantity of U to be marketed by Areva based only on a percentage of SMM original 50% share?

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Re - dlineinvestors comment

PDN has gone past the 61.8% retracement. If it doesn't turn soon it will turn to the support level of $8.17. I would like to think that the SP will turn around before then. $8.40 is the half way price from todays close $8.62 to suport of $8.17. At this rate of decline since it's high PDN is dropping an average .30 per week. One more week and a half gives us $8.17
IMO it is unlikely it will break support. Weekly volume is declining, the only indicator we have to go on at present so a turn around before $8.40 could be expected.

Well PDN came perilously close to $8.40 today, it wanted so bad march right through. Do you think that this will hold? I hope so, but I don't think so. What is going on? It just keeps getting beaten up every other day. I assume if the DOW has a bad night tonight or there are no further Uranium contracts passed, it will continue downwards? But then again, even if the DOW has a good night, it doesn't take notice. Not that I'm trying to string the two together, I'm just trying to determine what's next

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Hello again.

Just posting an article from FN Arena in the PDN thread supplied to me by Pommiegranite.

Uranium Shares Look A Lot Less Bullish
FN Arena News - May 17 2007

The Tech Wizard has kept shares of Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) firmly on his radar since last year.

Ever since the world's largest producer of uranium, Canada's Cameco, announced it had problems with the ramp up of its highly promising Cigar Lake mine, spot uranium has been in an stark uptrend – and so have ERA shares.

This time around it would appear ERA price action looks has consolidated at levels between $23.00 and $28.00.

The Wizard believes the outlook for ERA shares is very much dependant on the future price of uranium. Given the tightness in the market he thinks it is unlikely spot uranium will fall anytime soon.

From a technical point of view, it would take a fall below the $20.00 level to suggest the bull run is over. The Tech Wizard is of the view that with a bullish MACD indicator and with uranium still in short supply, such an outcome is rather unlikely.

For fellow uranium producer Paladin Resources (PDN), however, it would seem the outlook appears more challenging.

The Tech Wizard believes key resistance for Paladin sits at $10.80. And as proven in the past resistance here is pretty strong.

Paladin's price action has come back $2.00 since the shares failed in their attempt to break through the above mentioned resistance level. At this point in time, Paladin shares are trading below their 20 moving average and that, the Wizard highlights, is not a good sign.

He notes the MACD indicator is bullish but showing divergence. He explains this indicates there is an inherent weakness in the share price.

Paladin shares need to move back above the 20 m/a, says the Wizard, or else they are likely to fall to the bottom Bollinger band support level.

The Wizard believes there is solid support for the shares at the $7.80 -$8.00 level.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Firstly what is PDN's 20 moving average?

Secondly what is PDN's Bollinger band support level?

Thirdly what is PDN's MACD indicator? (or is that the same thing as the 20 moving average?)

Thankyou.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Some of the most successful traders simply trade by looking at a chart and deciding right then and there whether it's in an up or down trend and trade it.

For the last three days we've seen an incredible tug of war between buyers and sellers, then the DOW weakened and the result -3.97% today !
This tug of war also says, "finding support" unfortunately this is going to be on a day to day basis until the break out price and eventual trend is established.
There are no definative answers just possible outcomes, charting is a picture, a picture that say's, "what it is now not what u want it to be".
If you are an investor then news, spot price of uranium,world news etc. and company profile will be very important to you. But if you trade short term then what the graph shows now is where SP direction is heading. Trading accordingly will be where your profits will come from.
If you want to own PDN for the long term then accumulating now would be your priority.

 

[bumble_boo_bum]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Big News

Article in Weekend Australian:

"Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel

The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits. The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "

Full steam ahead to May 25.

Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.

Cheers

 

[greggy]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Big News

Article in Weekend Australian:

"Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel

The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits. The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "

Full steam ahead to May 25.

Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.

Cheers

The weekly spot uranium price as of 14 May 07 is US$120. The price has remained unchanged for the past week.
There's been a fair bit amonst uranium stocks of late. This is perhaps largely due to profit taking.
DYOR

 

[achan168]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Big News

Article in Weekend Australian:

"Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel

The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits. The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "

Full steam ahead to May 25.

Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.

Cheers

Sorry, I'm a newbie. Is this good news or bad news for Paladin? Any chance of it going $10+ again anytime soon?

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Big News

Article in Weekend Australian:

"Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel

The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits. The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "

Full steam ahead to May 25.

Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.

Cheers

I read this too, I take it as a plus; that there will be no interuption to the takeover, although I couldn't determine whether Areva still have any power here. It should be a plus to the share price Monday....any opinions?


Yes the Uranium price was up on Friday night, as well as PDN's TSX share price.

Uranium U308 Swap Jun '07 15:53:10 134.90 s Up 4.90

PDN - TSX

Last Trade: 7.93
Trade Time: May 18
Change: + 0.18 (2.32%)

 

[bumble_boo_bum]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Sorry, I'm a newbie. Is this good news or bad news for Paladin? Any chance of it going $10+ again anytime soon?

What is your definition of soon?

Re the news, it is good news. It means there are no regulatory restrictions, from the Takeovers Panel, affecting Paladin's takeover of Summit.

It means the Takeovers Panel 'has not issued any orders for Paladin to honour the pervious deal between Summit and Areva for Areva to take an 18 per cent stake in the company and gain access to two-thirds of future production from Summit's 50 per cent share of Valhalla/Skal.'

The big question for me is can Areva sue Summit for breach of contract? If they had an agreement, and it was binding, and Summit breach that agreement, then shouldn't it follow that Areva can sue for damanges?

Any company lawyers out their who can shed some light on this?

 

[j4mesa]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

My SHORT TERM concern here is that so far PDN acquired 68% and they still have around 32% to go until 25 May with AREVA got around 10% state in SMM.

 

[Yeti]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Just wondering if at this stage there could be any advantage for SMM holders to still hang on to their shares. Besides AREVA 's 10+%, some 28% of SMM shareholders have not accepted PDN's offer yet. Why? Are they still hoping to gain some advantage from not accepting? Any ideas?

 

[rgcharmez]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

If I accept and the whole takeover thing 'finishes' without PDN acquiring 80% acceptance, I incur CGT at 100% having held for less than 12 months. I don't know whether this a good reason not to accept but that's where I am at the minute.(Can you tell I'm a 'newbie'??!!)

 

[dj_420]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

My SHORT TERM concern here is that so far PDN acquired 68% and they still have around 32% to go until 25 May with AREVA got around 10% state in SMM.

you will find once they get to 80% majority will accept offer as CGT relief kicks in from this point

 

[Kauri]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Starting to look a little interesting, however I personally will be waiting for a minor W1--W2 to form before I consider getting back on.. (still seems to be a bit of confusing conflict over the SMM-Areva deal??).

 

[bigdog]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...ladin-shares-up/2007/05/21/1179601321579.html

Relief sends Summit, Paladin shares up
May 21, 2007 - 6:39PM

Shares in Paladin Resources and the uranium company's takeover target Summit Resources rose on Monday on relief the pair won't face action from the takeovers watchdog.

The Takeovers Panel said late on Friday night it was disappointed with the conduct of Summit and joint venture partner and predator Paladin, but no orders would be taken against the duo.

The panel was responding to proceedings started by French nuclear giant Areva NC, which claimed the companies failed to give Summit shareholders an adequate chance to consider a $292.6 million strategic alliance it proposed to stymie Paladin's takeover bid.

The Areva alliance would have been an alternative to Summit's improved and recommended $1.18 billion takeover offer from Paladin.

Shareholders showed their relief with the panel's rap on the knuckles, Summit's shares gaining 21 cents or 4.2 per cent at $5.25 and Paladin adding 31 cents or 3.7 per cent to $8.76.

But the Takeovers Panel did not hold back in criticising the conduct of the pair.

"The Panel is disappointed with the quality and timeliness of the disclosure by Paladin and Summit and does not consider it to be an example of good market practice," the panel said in a statement.

"The panel does not consider that Summit shareholders have been well served in terms of the information both Paladin and Summit have provided about their intentions in relation to the Areva transaction."

But the panel defended its decision not to take any formal action.

"The panel's decision not to make orders should be viewed in light of the particular circumstances and should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily," it said.

"If the plan had considered that there were orders that would have been effective in remedying the effects of the unacceptable circumstances and were in the interests of current and former Summit shareholders, the panel would not have hesitated to make those orders."

The Paris-based Areva had snapped up a 10.46 per cent stake in Summit in a blow to Paladin, but said it was not interested in launching a full takeover offer for the target.

Paladin has secured over two thirds of the shares in its joint venture partner, ownership of which would give it total control over the Valhalla/Skal deposit in north-west Queensland.

Paladin also operates the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia and has plans to bring its second mine in Malawi on line by 2009.

Paladin has extended its takeover offer for Summit several times, the most recent being on May 18 making a new closing date of May 25, but it reserves the right to further extend.

 

[Sean K]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Paladin was mooted as a possible takeover target (along with the rest of the ASX) in the Fin this morning. Geesh, where does this M&A rumour mill stop? After the crash I suppose.....

 

[Sean K]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Paladin was mooted as a possible takeover target (along with the rest of the ASX) in the Fin this morning. Geesh, where does this M&A rumour mill stop? After the crash I suppose.....

0918 [Dow Jones] Rumors have begun to circulate Paladin Resources (PDN.AU) could soon be a takeover target, with Areva (427583.FR) a logical buyer, according to a report in Tuesday's Australian Financial Review newspaper. Philippe Portella, managing director of Areva's Australian operations says company plans to keep its 10.5% stake in Summit (SMM.AU), PDN's offer on which remains opens until Friday. Areva open to discussion with PDN on new arrangements but no talks yet. (RCB)

 

[the barry]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Paladin was mooted as a possible takeover target (along with the rest of the ASX) in the Fin this morning. Geesh, where does this M&A rumour mill stop? After the crash I suppose.....

It is only logical for the major players to acquire company's that are already producing/or close to producing to take advantage of the rising uranium prices. The spot price isn't going to raise forever and with every man and his dog out with his shovel digging for uranium the window of opportunity is now. I have to agree that at some point this whole sector is going to fall on its bum with only the selected few to come through unscathed.