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PDN - Paladin Energy

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Halba said:
56gsa:

on the negative

PDN bid lapses/SMM reject bid. SMM goes back to around $4.20.

PDN walks away, deciding not worth it to pursue. PDN finds other african projects and PDN SP goes to $12

SMM jorcs disappoint, and smm progresses slowly towards development(as per the slow bludgy aussie way) and price does little.

Howdy H, And Summit have made it quite clear they are not over keen at this stage, although the shareholders seem keen to sell at a nice profit atm, and who can blame them ............. for those who have not seen this news report ............... (The last sentence may be prophetic in the months to come )


Paladin likely to take SummitBy Robin Bromby
February 28, 2007 12:00am

ALAN Eggers looks likely to lose control of his uranium explorer Summit Resources to Paladin - but he was making clear last night that he won't go down without a fight.

He told shareholders to ignore any communication from Paladin Resources, which yesterday launched a hostile $1.01 billion scrip offer for his company, a move that would give it full control of Queensland's two most advanced uranium deposits, near Mt Isa.

But despite the advice to do nothing, shareholders were taking the money and running yesterday as Summit shares soared $1.12 to the offer price of $5.12.

And no wonder: the Paladin offer of one of its shares for every 2.04 Summit shares prices Summit at $US27 a pound of uranium in the ground based on the present resource - and that is not far short of the $US32/lb being paid in the takeover of Canada's UrAsia Energy. Normally there is a much greater disparity between Australian and North American valuations.

Valhalla has a resource so far of 16,900 tonnes of uranium while Skal has been estimated from drilling to date to have 4990 tonnes.

Moreover, the paper bid means those who don't sell will move from being shareholders in a company whose main asset is locked up by Queensland's prohibition on uranium mining to holding stock in one that is producing uranium in Namibia, will produce in Malawi from 2009 and has extensive deposits in other parts of Australia.

Mr Eggers could hardly have been surprised.

Paladin last year took over Valhalla Uranium, which was Summit's 50-50 partner in Valhalla and Skal.

The move to mop up the other half has been widely expected.

Paladin chairman Rick Crabb said the company had been busy getting its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia into production. It felt free to move on Summit following last week's signing of a development agreement with the Malawi Government for its Kayelekera deposit in that country.

Mr Crabb said Paladin had not spoken to Mr Eggers before launching the off-market scrip bid.

"We didn't see any advantage in that," he added.

Mr Eggers said the bid did not capture the full value that would eventually flow to Summit shareholders. "At this stage, shareholders should take no action, ignore all communications from Paladin and await our further advice."

Far East Capital's Warwick Grigor, who has followed Summit and long predicted that Paladin would make this move, said it was an attractive offer.

"It's a good chance for everyone to cash out," he said.

Mr Grigor said this type of offer showed the bull market still had a lot further to run.
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I am a bit surprised that PDN is not boucing back strongly today. It looks like it is only consolidating when other U stock are bouncing back.
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I wouldn't cash out to PDN at all.

SMM will be worth a lot, and will bag as much as PDN at least as it is from a lower base? agree?
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN has great prospects with or without SMM.

This is from another board:

Tomorrow, Cameco is expected to issue an update about the status of their flooding. Most are expecting it to be more bad news, so hopefully that should help boost Paladin and other uranium miners.
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

nizar said:
PDN has great prospects with or without SMM.

This is from another board:
Tomorrow should be a big day then for U stock. I actually thought Cameco update was due end of march
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab,

I dunno if you are a member of HC but if you are how about you post that over there about Cameco announcement 2mrw, i dont like seeing PDN under $9 :D
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

So if the article above is correct, PDN is valuing Summit at $US27 a pound of uranium.

That is rather rich!
what does that value some of the other explorers ONCE they get to JORC!
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Zilch if no one is interested in a T/O, and then they are left with the scenario of Cap-Ex themselves and further dilution..........fantasy stuff IMO. Much like the corner deli competing with coles.
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Good Answer...
Thats why i am surprised that SMM is even valued at this level...

For an explorer, taking the effect of dilution, debt, not to metion the other risks associated with becoming a producer, IMHO fair value for an assest should be about 1/10 of market price
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

"IMHO fair value for an assest should be about 1/10 of market price"

Have you read up that smm's deposits will continue to grow? The size/potential is large. Merely valuing SMM's assets on valhalla/skal initial jorc would be a mistake?

What about the fact that the uranium price will increase to over $100/lb soon?
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I have no doubt PDN know what they are doing...
I was just pointing out just cause it apparently looks like SMM is being valued at 27/pound, it may be valued at a lot less than that by PDN based on their potential...

I was just thinking out loud, that if i was to buy an 'explorer' the maximum I would value them was 1/10th the current U price times their resource.

Now I may know their resources is a lot bigger than they've reported...
Likewise, I may know that U price is going to go even higher...
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

the numbers can be twisted to give you a broad range - 27/lb is probably the top - if you include the VUL takeover you get US$9/lb ... consider this from ABN

Price ok, but doesn’t look a bargain
The offer values SMM at approximately A$1,011m or US$15.20/lb of uranium
resource (including non-JORC resources). We believe that this is a reasonable price when compared to the SXR bid for UrAsia at US$27/lb of resource. However it should be noted that current state government policy prevents the development of these deposits and should probably be at a discount to overseas companies. PDN will be issuing almost 20% more capital and get 20% more in the way of pounds in the ground. If we use the average US$12.20/lb of resource to value SMM we get A$810m (20% less than the bid).

So on our analysis the deal does look marginally dilutive on resources.
Buying for the future PDN acquired Valhalla uranium for US$4.30/lb of uranium resource (including JORC and non-JORC resources) at the time. For the combined bids, PDN’s average acquisition multiple is US$9.60/lb for VUL and SMM resources. A successful bid would lift PDN’s resources from 253mlb to 306mlbs. However, as PDN noted in the offer, the acquired deposits are unlikely to be developed before 2010 or 2012 and, in the meantime, shareholders face a 20% dilution in earnings and will hope for a re-rating
on increased scale. We have maintained our target price of A$10.20 and Buy
recommendation, however we estimate the takeover would dilute earnings and
valuation - PDN appears to be buying for the future value of these assets.
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

by the way, while ABN are using US$95/lb in their analysis, have a target of $12 on PDN, based on the lower end of a US$120 - 140 /lb flat rate price looking forward

are the brokers now getting the U bug too??
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

56gsa said:
the numbers can be twisted to give you a broad range - 27/lb is probably the top - if you include the VUL takeover you get US$9/lb ...

This makes more sense... $9/lb is more like a fair price for not being in production.
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN strongly down on the TSX overnight what does that mean for the asx opening on monday? Does it normally follow the same trend or is it different? :confused:
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
PDN strongly down on the TSX overnight what does that mean for the asx opening on monday? Does it normally follow the same trend or is it different? :confused:

I think it will get UTTERLY DESTROYED.
In my opinion.
I do hold.

BUT wait - my stop will be hit (probably gap down below my stop dont you love that :D) so every1 should just hold on for the big bounce that will occur shortly after I sell my holding, works everytime!
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Nizar tell that to the ppl who bought anything before the correction(utter destruction) or ppl who bought on friday any stock in the market (I bought 1)

:banghead: :(

Paladin looks like it is headed back to around $7.50. just not enuff earnings at this point to support the SP. Malawi not coming online for another 20 months; if earnings stocks are getting hammered, what about pdn without much earnings?
 
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN comparable charts last 5 days and 3 months.
 

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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Halba said:
Paladin looks like it is headed back to around $7.50. just not enuff earnings at this point to support the SP. Malawi not coming online for another 20 months; if earnings stocks are getting hammered, what about pdn without much earnings?

Well the chart says support at $6 at the 200dma.
Its moved back to the 200dma on the October 05 correction and on the May-September correction.
Just to show how much its run since October ($4).

I hope im wrong.
 

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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Canadian selloff may have had a little bit of "fiday itis" in it as well .... It did recover towards end of trade ........ If PDN keeps dropping (which it looks like it might a bit more), I'll keep accumulating. Long term investment opportunity imo.

Hey Nizar, try the 150 day MA, it will make you feel better .......... gives a reasonable support level of around $8 in about 1 weeks time ......... Cheers.
 
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