PDI - Predictive Discovery

[Sean K]

This consolidated quite a bit after the excitement about the 19 Jul hits. I thought it might have even gone back and filled the gap around 12c, but maybe this ann will give it a boost. Or not, looks pretty standard and in line with previous hits. Initial MRE by late Sep. Not sure what tonnage and grade the professionals have put on this as far as expectations go.

 

[bk1]

Up almost 16% as we speak @kennas next step MRE ?

 

[Sean K]

Up almost 16% as we speak @kennas next step MRE ?

Yeah, they've finished all the drilling for an initial MRE. Not sure how much of the Creek will be included, but that continues to expand.

Very hard to work out a tonnage but the grade will be somewhere between 1-1.5 g/t I guess.

Tonnage for both NE Bankan and the Creek is pure guestimate due to the dip and gaps in the mineralised bits.

Looks like it's come off a bit sp wise.

 

[finicky]

 

[Sean K]

This report by Sprott was completed prior to the last two significant announcements post 19 Jul that will add to the MRE due by end of Sep. They don't include the Creek in their prediction as well which will be added to the MRE (I think). So, the Sprott guestimate of 1.8Moz @ 1.35g/t may be outdated now. There's got to be at least another 200Koz with the recent drill results and the Creek, so I'm tipping 2Moz Au. Not sure why I didn't buy this under 10c.

 

[Sean K]

Holy cow, WTF happened this morning?? No ann on anything. I almost bought this last week too... eeeek. Maybe now's the time to get in, but 20% off for no reason smells. Maybe someone with fat fingers on the sell.

 

[frugal.rock]

but 20% off for no reason smells.

It's the original festering canker which in my mind, swayed a few opinions about small caps trading potential. ?
No names will be mentioned...

It's had the suck in pump, now it's filling the gap ?
I believe the experts say 90% of gaps get filled, so no surprise really.

 

[Sean K]

It's had the suck in pump, now it's filling the gap ?
I believe the experts say 90% of gaps get filled, so no surprise really.

More than just filled. It's gapped the gap. Maybe someone had a debt collector at the door this morning.

 

[bk1]

Thats almost 19 million shares volume by lunchtime, and i still cant see a reason for it..

 

[bk1]

Maybe i do...
Attempted coup in Guinea over the weekend by a disgruntled Army officer.
Africa = basket case,
where's my risk premium? ?

 

[Sean K]

Maybe i do...
Attempted coup in Guinea over the weekend by a disgruntled Army officer.
Africa = basket case,
where's my risk premium? ?

Of course! I read about that very early this am and was thinking - hmmm - who are the West African explorers? I wonder if this is a longer term issue for PDI or it's just a standard Coup and then they keep drilling.

 

[Sean K]

Googling the news to see what's going on in Guinea and I think Wikipedia have the best background and current situation outlined.

2021 Guinean coup d'état - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Really hard to tell what this spells out for PDI short term as I assume all work will pause. The new leaders will have to spell out what their new policies are and how foreign miners will be effected. Royalties, or even ownership of leases, etc. One of the issues has been the waste of cash coming in from miners to the people so it spells trouble. Geesh.

 

[bk1]

Along with Australia, it is the largest exporter of Bauxite (constituent mineral in aluminium) to China. Aluminium price on the LME has been rising for some time and has spiked after this episode.
Rusal, RIO and AngloGoldAshanti are all big players in Guinea with a lot invested.
I'm sitting tight and holding.

 

[Sean K]

Along with Australia, it is the largest exporter of Bauxite (constituent mineral in aluminium) to China. Aluminium price on the LME has been rising for some time and has spiked after this episode.
Rusal, RIO and AngloGoldAshanti are all big players in Guinea with a lot invested.
I'm sitting tight and holding.

I would be if I owned it. I wonder if the new military leaders, or whatever puppet they put in, will do their sums and realise it's better to take the golden goose eggs, rather than eat the goose. I'm sure those big players will be outlining the benefits to them. Lots of eggs to shift into that Swiss bank.

 

[Beaches]

Along with Australia, it is the largest exporter of Bauxite (constituent mineral in aluminium) to China. Aluminium price on the LME has been rising for some time and has spiked after this episode.
Rusal, RIO and AngloGoldAshanti are all big players in Guinea with a lot invested.
I'm sitting tight and holding.

Im also holding for the short term till the smoke clears

 

[Sean K]

Looks like some semi-bargain hunters came in to prop this up. Maybe good timing down there at 10c. Mixed reports in the media about what the current situation is. Maybe this is just the West African equivalent of Scomo knifing Trumbull?

 

[Sean K]

PDI punters seem to be thinking this coup may not effect them longer term, back up to 13c early today. I did note a couple of other companies suspended trade on the ASX but not sure where that's at.

Been googling what's going on and it's hard to find comment on the ultimate effect on mining. I reckon China will be pulling every string it can as they're pumping a lot of $$ into Africa.

Got his quote from a france24.com article.

Aluminium shock

Guinea is one of the poorest countries in the world, despite its abundant reserves of minerals including iron ore, gold and diamonds.

The former French colony also has the world's largest reserves of bauxite, from which aluminium is made. Mining is the driver of the economy.

News of the coup sent the price of aluminium soaring to its highest level in 13 years this week, and triggered concern about the commodity supply chain among businesses.

Doumbouya has pledged continuity in the mining sector and said this week that Guinea will "uphold all its undertakings (and) mining agreements".

 

[Sean K]

So, this ann today may have helped the sp, I think. Looks like a simple milling process and the ore's not refractory requiring a POX stage which I think can cost up to about a $1b in extra capex. Notes that work continues. Probably helps that they're way over in the east.

 

[Sean K]

Another good ann. These hits are well outside the initial MRE to be delivered in the next 2 weeks. Looks like this will end up being OP and then UG mine with those grades at depth. Would have been a good opportunity to buy in or top up in hindsight after the coup. Maybe - that's obviously still unresolved. Maybe still cheap, but it's getting close to the first peak of the Lassonde Curve theory of value. Maybe the Coup gazumped that flow and the recent excellent drilling results outside the MRE cut off date perhaps put this still in the mid explorations stage.

 

[Sean K]

PDI gained 50% since being smashed by the coup. Overdone perhaps?

Looks like they'll find additional gold between NE Bankan and the Creek deposit. Hole 16 looks like it could be a new discovery. This is just AC drilling to 50m too.

Initial MRE out in the next week. Ounces expectations have already been factored into the sp I think, but the coup has probably put an additional discount on what was already a W Africa regional discount valuation.