PCL - Pancontinental Energy

[Miner]

Hey ST. My thoughts are that that article is based upon nothing more than last weeks announcement and old information.

Saying that, I'm still hoping for something positive tomorrow...... I'm just not too hopeful at this stage.

Me too hoping something positive but not too big.
It is primarily Origin or Apache (US) did not ask for a trading halt. Their share prices did not jump either.
PCL's MC is rather too low and yes, could make a storm in the tea cup.
Another 8 hours will tell us the story . Any lotto ticket is worth the jackpot until the wheel is spun

 

[Anmar]

Me too hoping something positive but not too big.
It is primarily Origin or Apache (US) did not ask for a trading halt. Their share prices did not jump either.
PCL's MC is rather too low and yes, could make a storm in the tea cup.
Another 8 hours will tell us the story . Any lotto ticket is worth the jackpot until the wheel is spun

SYDNEY--A joint venture led by Apache Corp. (APA) has discovered natural gas off the coast of Kenya, boosting hopes the East African nation could have commercial reserves after big finds in nearby Mozambique and Tanzania.

Smaller joint venture partner Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL (PCL.AU) said the Mbawa-1 exploration well hit a net gas column of about 52 meters. The well has only been drilled to a depth of 2,553 meters below the ocean floor and drilling will continue to a planned total depth of 3,275 meters. A secondary exploration target lies above the planned total depth, Pancontinental said.

Apache operates and owns 50% of the joint venture while Australia's Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AU) owns 20%, Pancontinental owns 15% and Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) owns 15%.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that 100 trillion cubic feet of natural gas has been discovered in Mozambique and Tanzania to date, ranking the region as one of the most prolific conventional gas plays in the world.

The energy consultancy says there could be enough gas offshore Mozambique and Tanzania alone to support up to 16 liquefied natural gas, or LNG, production units.

 

[Tendril]

SYDNEY--A joint venture led by Apache Corp. (APA) has discovered natural gas off the coast of Kenya, boosting hopes the East African nation could have commercial reserves after big finds in nearby Mozambique and Tanzania.

Smaller joint venture partner Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL (PCL.AU) said the Mbawa-1 exploration well hit a net gas column of about 52 meters. The well has only been drilled to a depth of 2,553 meters below the ocean floor and drilling will continue to a planned total depth of 3,275 meters. A secondary exploration target lies above the planned total depth, Pancontinental said.

Apache operates and owns 50% of the joint venture while Australia's Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AU) owns 20%, Pancontinental owns 15% and Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) owns 15%.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that 100 trillion cubic feet of natural gas has been discovered in Mozambique and Tanzania to date, ranking the region as one of the most prolific conventional gas plays in the world.

The energy consultancy says there could be enough gas offshore Mozambique and Tanzania alone to support up to 16 liquefied natural gas, or LNG, production units.

Big jump already today based on this announcement, already 30 million shares traded in the first hour. Up 47% from Friday's close. Looks like a very nice win for those on board.

 

[Miner]

Big jump already today based on this announcement, already 30 million shares traded in the first hour. Up 47% from Friday's close. Looks like a very nice win for those on board.

SYDNEY--A joint venture led by Apache Corp. (APA) has discovered natural gas off the coast of Kenya, boosting hopes the East African nation could have commercial reserves after big finds in nearby Mozambique and Tanzania.

Smaller joint venture partner Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL (PCL.AU) said the Mbawa-1 exploration well hit a net gas column of about 52 meters. The well has only been drilled to a depth of 2,553 meters below the ocean floor and drilling will continue to a planned total depth of 3,275 meters. A secondary exploration target lies above the planned total depth, Pancontinental said.

Apache operates and owns 50% of the joint venture while Australia's Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AU) owns 20%, Pancontinental owns 15% and Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) owns 15%.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that 100 trillion cubic feet of natural gas has been discovered in Mozambique and Tanzania to date, ranking the region as one of the most prolific conventional gas plays in the world.

The energy consultancy says there could be enough gas offshore Mozambique and Tanzania alone to support up to 16 liquefied natural gas, or LNG, production units.

ya ya ya
How can I ignore the price shot up by 67% from Friday's closing price (actually it went upto 19 cents some times too) and PCL MD says - the result is not yet full .
I am now debating whether to unload it or to keep ?
The volume of transaction is so high suggest a correction. I am really confused - to become greedy or to book the profit

But where is Small Timers ? You have been very positive with constant good news posting and after the announcement of PCL - did not see your posting (I would be bragging if it was I in your place). May be you are counting the big bucks and busy with the outcome already delivered

 

[smalltimer]

Great day guys,

Yes have been busy buying and selling today and no time to post but its great when a plan comes together.

As for holding or selling, with the volumes so high, yes I did take some profit but still hold enough to be interested, very interested.

Great new guys and yes the rewards do come to those that hold - sometimes.

Story is not over yet, a few good pay-days to come yet.

 

[Anmar]

Great day guys,

Yes have been busy buying and selling today and no time to post but its great when a plan comes together.

As for holding or selling, with the volumes so high, yes I did take some profit but still hold enough to be interested, very interested.

Great new guys and yes the rewards do come to those that hold - sometimes.

Story is not over yet, a few good pay-days to come yet.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Sept 10th PCL finished the day up 91.3% to $0.220

 

[CapnBirdseye]

Now on to the secondary target. Watch this space, we may hit the black stuff yet. Exciting days ahead.

Actually managed a little top up this morning too. Happy days.

 

[Anmar]

Now on to the secondary target. Watch this space, we may hit the black stuff yet. Exciting days ahead.

Actually managed a little top up this morning too. Happy days.

------------------------
Hartley Release:

Pancontinental Oil and Gas Limited (“Pancontinental”, “PCL”, “Company”) has announced first up drilling success at its 15% owned L8 block offshore Kenya. The Company has encountered 50m of net pay in gas charged sands at the primary target in the Mbawa prospect, operated by Apache.
The result is very significant as it opens up a new hydrocarbon province offshore Kenya and additional success is now highly likely. The secondary target in this well has been de-risked by this result and should be encountered any day. The possibility of oil in this zone has not been ruled out; however, the gas case now seems more likely.
Whilst many of the parameters required to make an estimate on recoverable volume have not been disclosed, we can infer and make assumptions based around pre-drill estimates and also the nature of the discoveries to the south. These are detailed on page 3. The upshot is a range of 2-5 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, with a mid case of 3.5 trillion cubic feet of gas (Hartleys estimates). We assume PCL’s interest will reduce to 10% (Tullow will free carry PCL in a second well), which results in value of 23cps for this horizon alone.
We have upgraded PCL from a Speculative Buy to a Buy and increased our valuation from 30cps to 85cps. Our price target is 51cps.

 

[Miner]

------------------------
Hartley Release:

Pancontinental Oil and Gas Limited (“Pancontinental”, “PCL”, “Company”) has announced first up drilling success at its 15% owned L8 block offshore Kenya. The Company has encountered 50m of net pay in gas charged sands at the primary target in the Mbawa prospect, operated by Apache.
The result is very significant as it opens up a new hydrocarbon province offshore Kenya and additional success is now highly likely. The secondary target in this well has been de-risked by this result and should be encountered any day. The possibility of oil in this zone has not been ruled out; however, the gas case now seems more likely.
Whilst many of the parameters required to make an estimate on recoverable volume have not been disclosed, we can infer and make assumptions based around pre-drill estimates and also the nature of the discoveries to the south. These are detailed on page 3. The upshot is a range of 2-5 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, with a mid case of 3.5 trillion cubic feet of gas (Hartleys estimates). We assume PCL’s interest will reduce to 10% (Tullow will free carry PCL in a second well), which results in value of 23cps for this horizon alone.
We have upgraded PCL from a Speculative Buy to a Buy and increased our valuation from 30cps to 85cps. Our price target is 51cps.

Have you seen Diggers and Dealers note posted last night after the market price for PCL shot up 91 %. Alex has just woke up after many failed speculations, to take the credit from PCL. He must be reading this forum and then 'adopting' to the views and references. Any way all are positive including me. My question remains, why Origin price did not react ? Is there an opportunity to look into Origin ?

 

[BESBS Player]

Great to see PCL really having a positive impact for Miner, Anwar and all the other holders. Well deserved guys for holding through...

While I'm enjoying some positive externality benefit via FAR, this type of success really gets the smaller end of the market buzzing and gets those pre-spud $$$ flowing.

Here's hoping for the next PCL announcement to be a gusher!!!

 

[mr. jeff]

Great to see PCL really having a positive impact for Miner, Anwar and all the other holders. Well deserved guys for holding through...

While I'm enjoying some positive externality benefit via FAR, this type of success really gets the smaller end of the market buzzing and gets those pre-spud $$$ flowing.

Here's hoping for the next PCL announcement to be a gusher!!!

News out, reached depth, no oil. At least they found a decent gas intersection though. 40% in 2 days not bad !

 

[smalltimer]

What a ride.

Last week at 17 cents , then down to 11 cents , then up to 25 cents , now back to 12 cents.

That's the Oil Game and that is the Stock Market. Lost a house this morning, but hey, we will hold and ride this one again. They may have a Gas Field on their hands to sell and lots of big boys out there looking for possible assets.

It's just a game. Hang in there guys.

 

[smalltimer]

COPY OF REPORT TO ASX Today.

ASX Companies Announcement Office
12 September 2012, KENYA L8 - MBAWA DRILLING UPDATE

Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL (“Pancontinental”) announces that the Mbawa-1 exploration well in the L8 licence area offshore Kenya has reached a final total depth of 3,151 metres below the drill floor.

As announced, the Mbawa-1 well encountered approximately 52 metres (~170 feet) of net gas pay in porous Cretaceous sandstones in the primary target. At the level of the deeper secondary target the well did not contain hydrocarbons at this location. Pancontinental will provide more information on the potential of the deeper play in due course.

The operator is currently running wireline logs. On conclusion of this work the well will be plugged as originally planned, and as is usual for an exploration well of this kind.

Pancontinental is very pleased with outcome of the Mbawa-1 exploration well, which has made a substantive hydrocarbon discovery.

Barry Rushworth, CEO and Director of Pancontinental said:

“We are delighted to have made a significant discovery with this first exploration well. We are also delighted to be the first to prove the existence of a working hydrocarbon system offshore Kenya.

The Kenya L8 Joint Venture partners will now analyse the well data and determine an exploration plan for the next phase of exploration activities. Mbawa-1, our first exploration well, has unlocked the door to the oil and gas potential offshore Kenya, and Pancontinental has secured a major position in our four project areas”.

Pancontinental looks forward to providing more information on the Mbawa-1 exploration well results when the well data has been more extensively analysed and correlated. Additional information about Mbawa is available in previous reports issued by Pancontinental and available on the company’s ;

website www.pancon.com.au

The Kenya L8 Joint Venture consortium consists of-

Apache Corporation (Operator) 50%
Origin Energy Limited 20%
Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL 15%*
Tullow Kenya B.V. 15%

* Pancontinental’s 15% interest is “free-carried” through Mbawa drilling by Tullow Oil plc up to a “cap” of US$ 9 million (as reduced by other exploration expenditure). After the first earning phase Tullow has an option to earn a further 5% by providing funding on Pancontinental’s behalf to a cap of US$ 6 million in any second well.

Yours sincerely for and on behalf of Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL
Barry Rushworth, CEO and Director

 

[Miner]

PCL offered a perfect case study for some rag to riches and riches to rag in 48 hours .
But looks like it will be another few weeks to see more dramas to happen.
I am wondering where is the researcher from Hartley Newletter and Diggers and Dealers on the meterioc rise and falls. Lots of eggs on their faces if they claimed to have predicted these .

 

[AussieBoy]

All I can say is thank God that I got out late yesterday afternoon at .245. I was very tempted to stay in overnight and although I may've only got a paltry $100 profit from it, it is much better than losing what would've been approx. $1200 today. Guess this experience has alerted me to just how volatile the market can be

 

[BESBS Player]

PCL offered a perfect case study for some rag to riches and riches to rag in 48 hours .
But looks like it will be another few weeks to see more dramas to happen.
I am wondering where is the researcher from Hartley Newletter and Diggers and Dealers on the meterioc rise and falls. Lots of eggs on their faces if they claimed to have predicted these .

Hi Miner,

Sorry to see today's outcome for all PCL holders.
Nonetheless, your comment above is a great lesson for traders who wish to play this game and survive for decades. Entry before the pre-spud run (ie. the 'Buy Early' part of the BESBS) and then, at a minimum becoming free-carried as the drill approaches, takes away the risk to capital and allows one to continue trading/speculating. If one does choose to hold through a drill, what is the follow-up activity to recover the SP?
In my case, I entered FAR at the pre-spud and was happy to watch any 'external' impacts of this drill upon it as it has AP's drill at the end of the year plus activitiy in 2013.

At least in PCL's case, the gas shows in the shallow depths does give hope for future success in the area. Lets hope that PCL can get back and drill again quickly as this would help the SP recover.

All the best to holders.

 

[tech/a]

A grounding in VSA would save a great deal of grief
For most Fundi traders.

 

[Trembling Hand]

A grounding in VSA would save a great deal of grief
For most Fundi traders.

To be fair you would more likely to be tightening stops after that 11th Sep bar rather than closing?

Thats if somehow you managed to hang on before then.

 

[tech/a]

To be fair you would more likely to be tightening stops after that 11th Sep bar rather than closing?

Thats if somehow you managed to hang on before then.

To be even fairer I doubt a techie would have been on that move.

The point I was making wasnt about T/A V F/A but an observation that quite a few had been sitting in this (Some still are sitting in it ) and basically watched a 100% increase in price then a 100% decrease.

Supply governs price NOT DEMAND---contrary to 99% of the trading populations belief.
Tightening of a stop would have been of no value as it gapped 10c on open (80%)
taking some profit on Sept 10 would have helped but BUYING on 9/or10th was sucidal. Infact many equityies which display similar price moves fleece many more pockets than fill them!

Those that are holding (still) are not reading participants in the equity they are HOPING.---hoping others see the positives they extrapolate from announcements or released info on developements or
product and buy buy buy.--The question to ask is why are they Selling selling selling???

There is no place for hope in trading although I see a lot of it!

 

[mr. jeff]

This is how it went for me. Doesn't happen that often.

In my revised exiting strategy (read take money out earlier than ever) I jumped as soon as the move at lunch time on the 11th started wavering. In my mind for such a short term trade it wasn't worth risking profits to gain another 30% or so if there was a show before TD.

I post to learn and am not interested in proving anything or boosting/deflating egos; so for anyone that is going to ask, this is completely falsified !