I think the answer must be to buy at the lowest point - after the prices have been coming down for a long while - and then sell at the highest price possible.
But I suspect that you won't get such a direct answer to the question from tech
tech i would be interested in your answers to a "what if" question.
Lets say you have access to a time machine and can go back up to 5 years in time twice to buy/sell HHL..what month and year would you choose to buy? also please nominate the month and year you would sell.
Thanks in advance for indulging me...5 year chart below.
~
I think the answer must be to buy at the lowest point - after the prices have been coming down for a long while - and then sell at the highest price possible.
But I suspect that you won't get such a direct answer to the question from tech
Thought I'd answered this.
Are you looking. For specific buy and sell criteria which gave me the points of purchase and sale?
The current trade had very little risk and didn't involve buying at lower and lower prices.
Profit almost immediately.
I think the answer must be to buy at the lowest point - after the prices have been coming down for a long while - and then sell at the highest price possible.
But I suspect that you won't get such a direct answer to the question from tech
Sorry tech/a
I probably should have left it to the original questioner to follow up, but I don't think he was after any particular criteria - since you had the time machine, and you knew the history of the share price, he was expecting that like anyone else you would simply buy at the lowest price - and once that was established he was going to follow up with a continued line of reasoning.
Anyway I was just curious as to how that discussion would develop, but since I didn't start it I probably should be leaving it to the original questioner and shouldn't add more
(3rd-March-2012) I entered HHL late last week @ 3.99 ~ my second entry, this time at a price significantly lower than last time....no big deal as the shares im holding from my first entry are 60% free carried anyway and the yield is still ok even with the reduced dividend.
This is something I haven't yet understood about share investing - the idea of 'free carry'. Why potential capital gains in different shares have different values to investors depending upon the original prices that they paid.
Surely the 'free carried' shares are no less important to you than any of your other shares (?)
You and i got the point of the time machine and tech didn't, and that speaks volumes about his mind set and where he is coming from when compared to you and i and where we are coming from....and that is what i was trying to demonstrate.
I never replied to tech because i considered his answer said everything i wanted to say...further participation from me wasn't needed.
thank god for the TA's and the emotional gamblers, without them it would be damn hard to find any value in the market!
HHL looks like a bit of a dog on the four year monthly chart.
It's still in a downtrend, lower lows and lower highs.
I'd steer clear of it.
I hope everyone else does for a while GG, I would like to buy some more.
The funds under management was still falling through until the end of the year however the investment returns (like the rest of the market) were positive.
Says HHL.
You make me larf.
The sum total of all information is in the chart.
It is a dawg.
gg
Time will tell, just as long as Mr Hall keeps his eye on the ball.
We are looking at the same thing with two different views of time. I'm thinkin things should look good in a couple of years plus.
The 'free carry' concept is one of the corner stones of my strategy, in my mind they are important because a profit taking trade was made to complete the 'free carry' component of the parcel in question...before 2012 this first parcel used to be the cheapest parcel held, thus establishing a core low price on which to help keep the average price low and ROC dividend yield high, when additional parcels/trades were added at higher prices.
In 2012 this didn't hold true with HHL and KSC so i bought shares at a lower price than my first 'free carry' completed parcel..thus establishing a new low price core to build from.
That first 'buy' point is very impressive, tech/a - quite near the bottom
I could have been one of those idiots who might have been holding HHL through that big drop (although just to be clear - I've never held HHL) and actually looking to add to the position. So I would hope to buy at that bottom. Not having a time machine, my next best hope is technical analysis if it can reliably work as well as you show here.
I also noticed from that long TGA thread that there are people who prefer FA but like to combine with some technical analysis to help choose entry/exit points.
Is this something that people like me should look into? Up until now I've been in the 'share price is pretty low at this point, and it won't worry me if it goes down for a while after I've bought" camp. But if I could fine-tune these points the returns would be better, even for a long-term investor.
Is there a particular thread that addresses this?
Have people asked any of the best technical analysts such as tech/a to advise on entry points in the past, and if so has the advice generally been helpful?
If no previous threads - could we follow say 20 stocks and see if predicted entry points (maybe also sell points) turn out to be reasonably useful over say a year period?
All entries and all exits will be proven to be technically correct or they will fail.
The objective of technical analysis SHOULD BE to find these setups and trade them so you can take advantage of those which are proven correct and to limit exposure to those that are proven incorrect.
Its the way you handle trades and portfolios which will determine profitability more so than the accuracy of any analysis.
Let me pose this question.
Is an entry correct if price moves in your direction for
1 period?
2 periods?
A week?
Perminently?
Money can be made in all timeframes!
I can have 20% winners and still Win
Or 80% winners and still lose.
Cryptic---no not at---all have a think.
There are 100s of technical entry/exit possiblilities
All with the same possibility of being proven or not.
There is however a weight of evidence which can
sway that possibility away from 50/50---again in n-timeframe.
That evidence may continue after the signal.
The trick is learning HOW TO TRADE. Fundamentally (Tools used) or technically.
Happy to be involved in any investigation you wish to set up.
And a second question for somebody like me interested in buying HHL - when should I jump in - now?
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