I think the answer must be to buy at the lowest point - after the prices have been coming down for a long while - and then sell at the highest price possible.
But I suspect that you won't get such a direct answer to the question from tech
PCG - Pengana Capital Group
- Thread starter Sean K
- Start date
I think the answer must be to buy at the lowest point - after the prices have been coming down for a long while - and then sell at the highest price possible.
But I suspect that you won't get such a direct answer to the question from tech
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,417
- Reactions
- 6,356
Thought I'd answered this.
Are you looking. For specific buy and sell criteria which gave me the points of purchase and sale?
The current trade had very little risk and didn't involve buying at lower and lower prices.
Profit almost immediately.
Sorry tech/a
I probably should have left it to the original questioner to follow up, but I don't think he was after any particular criteria - since you had the time machine, and you knew the history of the share price, he was expecting that like anyone else you would simply buy at the lowest price - and once that was established he was going to follow up with a continued line of reasoning.
Anyway I was just curious as to how that discussion would develop, but since I didn't start it I probably should be leaving it to the original questioner and shouldn't add more
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,466
- Reactions
- 1,468
You and i got the point of the time machine and tech didn't, and that speaks volumes about his mind set and where he is coming from when compared to you and i and where we are coming from....and that is what i was trying to demonstrate.
I never replied to tech because i considered his answer said everything i wanted to say...further participation from me wasn't needed.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,466
- Reactions
- 1,468
The 'free carry' concept is one of the corner stones of my strategy, in my mind they are important because a profit taking trade was made to complete the 'free carry' component of the parcel in question...before 2012 this first parcel used to be the cheapest parcel held, thus establishing a core low price on which to help keep the average price low and ROC dividend yield high, when additional parcels/trades were added at higher prices.
In 2012 this didn't hold true with HHL and KSC so i bought shares at a lower price than my first 'free carry' completed parcel..thus establishing a new low price core to build from.
galumay
learner
- Joined
- 17 September 2011
- Posts
- 3,391
- Reactions
- 2,215
Yep, I got it too, thats why I decided early on the TA approach wasnt for me. As was pointed out though, thank god for the TA's and the emotional gamblers, without them it would be damn hard to find any value in the market!
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,469
- Reactions
- 9,761
HHL looks like a bit of a dog on the four year monthly chart.
It's still in a downtrend, lower lows and lower highs.
I'd steer clear of it.
gg
ps what is an ethical?
It's still in a downtrend, lower lows and lower highs.
I'd steer clear of it.
gg
ps what is an ethical?
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,466
- Reactions
- 1,468
Yep i have come to the same conclusion...we need the 'stop loss' sellers and other capital conservatives.
HHL looks like a bit of a dog on the four year monthly chart.
It's still in a downtrend, lower lows and lower highs.
I'd steer clear of it.
I hope everyone else does for a while GG, I would like to buy some more.
The funds under management was still falling through until the end of the year however the investment returns (like the rest of the market) were positive.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,469
- Reactions
- 9,761
Says HHL.
You make me larf.
The sum total of all information is in the chart.
It is a dawg.
gg
Time will tell, just as long as Mr Hall keeps his eye on the ball.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,469
- Reactions
- 9,761
Just remember that the financials you are reading are probably 3 months old.
The market is today.
Ignore the charts at your peril.
I honestly hope you are correct in your fundamental analysis.
You will only find out the truth of today when the auditors deliver their reports in July/August.
And if you make a profit good on you.
I have seen many a Mr.Hall
gg
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,469
- Reactions
- 9,761
I hope you are correct.
This new bloke sounds better.
But I've seen Skase, Williams, Adler and all the other big names deplete Australian's wealth.
And it was all apparent from the charts.
Lower lows and lower highs.
gg
Thanks So_Cynical
I guess I see things differently and I'm going to try to avoid using the concept of 'free carry'. In fact, I'm going to try to continue to make sell or (further) buy decisions that are not influenced by the price that I paid for a particular share in the past.
But it's an integral part of your successful investing so it is very useful for you - and perhaps useful for others - maybe it keeps moral up when share prices are coming down and helps people from selling at the wrong time, that sort of thing.
That first 'buy' point is very impressive, tech/a - quite near the bottom
I could have been one of those idiots who might have been holding HHL through that big drop (although just to be clear - I've never held HHL) and actually looking to add to the position. So I would hope to buy at that bottom. Not having a time machine, my next best hope is technical analysis if it can reliably work as well as you show here.
I also noticed from that long TGA thread that there are people who prefer FA but like to combine with some technical analysis to help choose entry/exit points.
Is this something that people like me should look into? Up until now I've been in the 'share price is pretty low at this point, and it won't worry me if it goes down for a while after I've bought" camp. But if I could fine-tune these points the returns would be better, even for a long-term investor.
Is there a particular thread that addresses this?
Have people asked any of the best technical analysts such as tech/a to advise on entry points in the past, and if so has the advice generally been helpful?
If no previous threads - could we follow say 20 stocks and see if predicted entry points (maybe also sell points) turn out to be reasonably useful over say a year period?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,417
- Reactions
- 6,356
All entries and all exits will be proven to be technically correct or they will fail.
The objective of technical analysis SHOULD BE to find these setups and trade them so you can take advantage of those which are proven correct and to limit exposure to those that are proven incorrect.
Its the way you handle trades and portfolios which will determine profitability more so than the accuracy of any analysis.
Let me pose this question.
Is an entry correct if price moves in your direction for
1 period?
2 periods?
A week?
Perminently?
Money can be made in all timeframes!
I can have 20% winners and still Win
Or 80% winners and still lose.
Cryptic---no not at---all have a think.
There are 100s of technical entry/exit possiblilities
All with the same possibility of being proven or not.
There is however a weight of evidence which can
sway that possibility away from 50/50---again in n-timeframe.
That evidence may continue after the signal.
The trick is learning HOW TO TRADE. Fundamentally (Tools used) or technically.
Happy to be involved in any investigation you wish to set up.
Ok fair enough tech/a What I was thinking of was just one entry point followed by several years hold - in your system you might need multiple entry points followed by small losses but still have a good gain because of holding on for longer once share goes up.
Probably beyond me to look into this further - a thread examining the best entry point wouldn't stay on the subject I suspect, ending up being more about success of TA, or another FA vs TA discussion.
HHL has had a payout ratio higher than 100% for a few years now.
They seem to be paying dividends at least partly out of cash that they had accumulated in better years.
Do you see that as a positive - that the company is determined to look after its shareholders, wants to keep dividend payments fairly constant through the cycles, is confident that good times are around the corner and that cash reserves can be built up again
or should it be seen as a negative, that if sharemarkets don't recover in the near future to the point that HHL's services become popular again, dividends will be cut leading to many shareholders selling, leading to even further reductions in share price.
And a second question for somebody like me interested in buying HHL - when should I jump in - now?
They seem to be paying dividends at least partly out of cash that they had accumulated in better years.
Do you see that as a positive - that the company is determined to look after its shareholders, wants to keep dividend payments fairly constant through the cycles, is confident that good times are around the corner and that cash reserves can be built up again
or should it be seen as a negative, that if sharemarkets don't recover in the near future to the point that HHL's services become popular again, dividends will be cut leading to many shareholders selling, leading to even further reductions in share price.
And a second question for somebody like me interested in buying HHL - when should I jump in - now?
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,466
- Reactions
- 1,468
And a second question for somebody like me interested in buying HHL - when should I jump in - now?
HHL still looks cheap when compared to the other fund managers, AMP and PTM have had quite a run up over the last 3 months...bit of a MC difference though.
