PCG - PCH Group

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Chart looks a little nicer now...

Moving up on very small volume. CBA announced today purchase of over 1mill shares over the last three months. Profit guidance released day before indicated no real change and expected to be inline with first half.

I am looking to hold at least until full year results. May take some profits if it reaches previous high before results......

Note: this is probably not a traders stock becuase of very low liquidity. Research the company....

TJ

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Took some profits selling over 1/3 of holding at .605

No change in fundamentals and technicals look good

Only reason is related to reducing risk in portfolio (I was too overweight in this share) and it is getting close to new highs. Seeing how it performs if the overall market takes a bit of a hit - may add if there is a significant pull back. May have risen a bit quick of late??? we'll see.....

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

An attempt at some TA

I don't know what these are called triangle something.... Either way it is coming up to decision time for PCG, which way will it go?? Reporting date is coming soon (last year was 27th Aug), I am tipping a solid result, why? becuase PCG leases scaffolding to mining/resource companies and residential construction (mainly perth resi market) - hopefully they have been able to take advantage of market conditions...

I still hold reasonable amount - may even consider adding on anticipation of a good result, but as always..... do your own research

TJ

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Well it looks like the market read my post and are buying up

Currently up 6% today to 0.62, and my pink line (chart above) has been breached obviously where it closes is important, from there price will move on speculation of whats in the final report...... I won't annoy anyone with anymore posts on this one until report day :

TJ

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Annual report released today...

Revenue up 68%, Profit up, and share price up 4.5% to 68c (price has taken a fair run up prior to report). The price did reach a top of 70c (not shown on chart which shows yesterdays close). My 12 months will be up on this one in 2 weeks, where it will be decision time - however I am definitly considering this one to be a long term holder. I think their fundamental outlook is still fantastic... their revenues are pretty much dictated by cash and expansion of world resource companies.....

cheers to any holders out there... I'd like to know your opinions

 

[farmboy]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

I missed references to this stock on the forum until today.

I took a bite when it was 54 cents and am happy to hold on after today's report - in fact I have topped-up.

I like what I consider to be the sound basics of the company plus the fact that it deals with the construction industry as well as resource extraction.

Then again, "support" companies like this are usually the first to feel any pinch when things go bad, but there is always some risk.

 

[Fleeta]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Loved the result, was hoping for a higher dividend, but I think the low payout ratio won't continue in the coming years...a long term hold for me...I've bought this 3 times over the past 2 years at an average price of 34c, so loving it.

With its long term contracts and the continual expansion of the resources industry - and these guys are cashed up - I can't see the share price falling.

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Bought some more today at 61c (medium term hold - could be longer)

Fundamentally; currently trading at PE < 10, 61c is below recent placement(which was oversubscribed at 62c)

Technically - see my attempts below :

 

[Fleeta]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Good timing TJ - up to 64c today! I wasn't buying any more (bought the most I could get in the rights issue - can't believe how heavily it was scaled back!) and certainly not looking to sell...i'm hoping a run up to 80c is coming...soon I hope.

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Yep, happy with the timing on that one!! Buyers currently lining up at 65.5c and sellers are disappearing...

I've seen some very large crossed trades over the last few days - someone selling a lot to someone else buying a lot. A reasonable probability that there has been substantial holder buying/selling... may see some notices in the future.

 

[TjamesX]

Re: PCG -Strategy?

Another cheerful PCG update...

Stock broken new highs, buyers currently lining up at 0.76 on large volume!!! PCG got a mention in the online version of smh yesterday, a fund manager dropped its name for propects in 2006. Personally the growth in SP is a bit quick for me, I would expect it to consolidate reasonably soon... still awaiting some change in substantial holder notices.

TJ

 

[TjamesX]

Sold part holding today @ 80c - profit taking & still had some that had held for 12 month period. Still have quite a few sitting there (bottom draw), if the SP moves down again I will top up.

Fundamentals still look fantastic

TJ

 

[Fleeta]

New high yesterday TJ - hope you are still into this one.

Got above 80c as predicted by me in earlier posts. Now what do I do...sit on it?

Looks like accounting has been conservative when they had a tax provision of $1.3m that was not required! Wonder if there is any other cream sitting in their balance sheet. In any case, I think I will hold provided that the contract pipeline continues. Only danger is that the resources market drops off and the contracts dry up, hopefully it keeps pushing to new highs. I think I will sell at a dollar and set stop loss at 70c. Any thoughts?

 

[TjamesX]

New high yesterday TJ - hope you are still into this one.

Got above 80c as predicted by me in earlier posts. Now what do I do...sit on it?

Still happily holding, and buyers are lining up @ 88 cents as I write.

There is obviuously some anticipation leading up to half yearly report. They should be releasing this in the next week or so.

From a fundamental perspective I am thinking it will be a pretty good result. Perth has been going nuts in both residential construction and mining over the last 12 months - PCH has been in the perfect position to take advantage of this.

Last years 12 month EPS was 6.9 cents I would expect improvement from this given industry conditions. I think 12 months I would be looking for EPS of 9-10 cents, this would give us a PE of < 10 at the current share price. So to be inline with this, hopefully the half yearly report will have EPS > 4 cents, although this figure may be hampered slightly by the recent share placement.

From where I sit, if it does come in with these results you would be hard pressed to find better value in the market.... Just depends how long you think mining companies will be out there upgrading projects and mine development - I think for a long while yet.

TJ

 

[TjamesX]

There is obviuously some anticipation leading up to half yearly report. They should be releasing this in the next week or so.

From a fundamental perspective I am thinking it will be a pretty good result. Perth has been going nuts in both residential construction and mining over the last 12 months - PCH has been in the perfect position to take advantage of this.

Sorry Guys - didn't give you enough time to digest, half yearly report has been released!!!!

Hope you held on fleeta :

Just a few highlights;

- revenue up 70%
- profit up 121%
- announced maiden interium div of 0.75c
- basic EPS of 7.1 cents for the half!! (way above what I was expecting)

Note that half yearly EPS is greater than for the entire previous year!! It should be noted that this has been benefited by some accounting changes (income tax benefits and provisions) these will not be repreated to the same extent in future reports. However the change in income tax assesment is material and will be beneficial to ongoing income.

I would expect 2nd half EPS to be below 7.1 cents due to one off benefits not occuring and some contracts coming off stream in early 2006. A conservative 4 cents in the 2nd half will give us 11 cents for the year which essentially means any price less than $1.10 will be trading below a PE of 10.

Net Profit for the half year of $11.4 million was well above analysts expectations. Pattersons had a buy recommnedation assuming net profit for the 06 year to be forecast at $11.4mill, PCH have achieved this profit in the first half.

Market reaction;

Share price up 13% to 97 cents
Sell side depth is barron to say the least


TJ

 

[ghotib]

Enjoy the moment TJ!

I bought in at 62.5 in October last year because I like the business. No plans to sell.

Ghoti

 

[Fleeta]

Loving life with this one...my average buy price is 40.4c, so i'm 137% up. Damn, I am spewing that the rights issue I just got in at 67c was scaled back!!

Baglimit - didn't even need you on this one...found it all by myself!

The numbers are certainly very impressive and you would think that the downside risk is minimal in the short-term.

 

[michael_selway]

Sorry Guys - didn't give you enough time to digest, half yearly report has been released!!!!

Hope you held on fleeta :

Just a few highlights;

- revenue up 70%
- profit up 121%
- announced maiden interium div of 0.75c
- basic EPS of 7.1 cents for the half!! (way above what I was expecting)

Note that half yearly EPS is greater than for the entire previous year!! It should be noted that this has been benefited by some accounting changes (income tax benefits and provisions) these will not be repreated to the same extent in future reports. However the change in income tax assesment is material and will be beneficial to ongoing income.

I would expect 2nd half EPS to be below 7.1 cents due to one off benefits not occuring and some contracts coming off stream in early 2006. A conservative 4 cents in the 2nd half will give us 11 cents for the year which essentially means any price less than $1.10 will be trading below a PE of 10.

Net Profit for the half year of $11.4 million was well above analysts expectations. Pattersons had a buy recommnedation assuming net profit for the 06 year to be forecast at $11.4mill, PCH have achieved this profit in the first half.

Market reaction;

Share price up 13% to 97 cents
Sell side depth is barron to say the least


TJ

yes 11c EPS for 2006, what about forecast for 2007 and 2008 now?

thx

MS

 

[TjamesX]

Come off its highs of late...

Thinking of adding again, medium to short term

 

[TjamesX]

Increased holding today - setting up for above $1 soon.

Fundamentals still fantastic (still trading well below PE 10x on forecast 06 earnings)

TJ