PBL - Publishing & Broadcasting

Recently I Have take near site look at the two properties owned by Melco (50% owned by PBL) in Macao, the Crown Casino Macao and City of Dream. Very impressive, particularly the City of Dream, just opposite to the Venetian Macao, the second best location on the Macao Strip.

According to the latest round of land sell, the land value of City of Dream could be worth several billions dollars. The surrounding land values have appreciated more than 20 times in a year!!! Somebody hits the jackpot even before open.

I believe that PBL worths to have close look if you want to have some gambling exposure. It will soon be amount the best in the world along with The Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, and MGM Group.

Strong demand for MELCO's IPO. (50% owned by PBL) The price is $19, above $16-18 range. It is going to be traded tomorrow on NASDAQ, code MPEL

I guess strong MPEL might boost PBL's price, or has been factored in the price already. We can find it out tomorrow.

Could someone with some EW skills give me some feed back on this chart of pbl and tell me if the counts are valid?
This is my first shot at EW so be gentle.
Thanks in advance for any help.

P.S this is purely educational.

Had a look at both weekly and daily.

Cant get a good count on Daily but am happy with MY count on the Weekly.
Ive posted both my count and AGET's count. I'm not happy with the softwares count as some of the waves,dont match to conventional E wave theory
IE wave 3 is shortest in the count.
If you want possible targets then I'll have a look in the morning.

Thanks Tech,

Price targets would be good if & when you get time, all helps in my education. I don't look to be to far out with my count. Will keep studying

P.S the price target for wave 5 posted on my chart is based on the length of wave 1 on my chart, so if wave 1 is out so is the target.

Keith.

There are many different counts possible on more complex charts.
In fact Elliot put out software which will give you all possible counts and the % chance that the count will be the correct count.

To those who havent studied Elliot youd be saying bloody hell how do you ever get a right count and my count maybe wrong according to others.

Radge put it best.

It's PROVE---DISPROVE----PROVE---DISPROVE.

Provided the wave count is within the RULES of Elliot counts then any count can be valid,until proven otherwise.
It does take a while to click but well worth the effort when it does.

Your Extensions of Wave one are correct and one possible target.
Gotta fly this morning.

Potential turn around story here. Stock meeting long term upward and horizontal support. Sorry, they don't mine for iron, or uranium, but I think James has shares in a few dodgy explorers here and there.

I'm not sure of the situation with the split and how it's going to effect the sp.

Not too impressed with the double top.

(not holding)

There are reports of a work related fatality on one of PBL's affiliated CPH properties in the north of WA. When it has been confirmed, I can post relevant information.

PBL - Publishing and Broadcasting Limited

Hi All

PBL is scheduled to demerge soon into Gaming and Media. Packer likes to gamble (and so do a lot of people in this forum ). PBL shareholders will vote on the de-merger this August. Meanwhile Packer is growing his gaming interests in China, North America, and Canada. Any thoughts on how the de-merger will affect share price in the near future. My "bet" is on gaming.

Thoughts?

Avery

I've taken a LONG position on this one in the last few days ... seems to be doing the right thing today ... thought I'd posted a chart last week but does not look like it from here ...

Tell me do others get FGL and PBL also mixed up like I seem to do?

PBL another quite predictable performer ... bit like FGL. It can move when it wants too else bounce around within a range ...

Re: PBL - Publishing and Broadcasting Limited

pcashman said:

Hi All

PBL is scheduled to demerge soon into Gaming and Media. Packer likes to gamble (and so do a lot of people in this forum ). PBL shareholders will vote on the de-merger this August. Meanwhile Packer is growing his gaming interests in China, North America, and Canada. Any thoughts on how the de-merger will affect share price in the near future. My "bet" is on gaming.

Thoughts?

Avery

Click to expand...

It was suggested to me (what now seems a long time ago) that when the de-merger happens, one should liquidate the media interests and double up (pardon the pun) on the gambling side.

Not sure if there is anything to suggest a change since then, but I certainly am in agreement with your thoughts.

We have just received the PBL Scheme Booklet. I have read the thing. If anyone can decipher Section 13 on the taxation issues and recast it into plain English, you deserve a double 1st Class Honours' Degree in English Literature and Taxation Law.

Current price $20.55

Investment Rating

PBL will split its Media and Gaming assets in late 2007, subject to an EGM. Media will have steady but reduced cash flows from 25% of Channel Nine with NBN and magazines plus new media assets like Foxtel. Gaming will have more upside with the Australian casinos plus the 41% JV with Melco to build Asian casinos. Its Australian Gaming assets have around $5bn book value. PBL has also invested around $550m in North American Gaming assets. The higher risk profile means more conservative investors may prefer Media or alternative investments. Others may still prefer investing alongside major 37% shareholder Consolidated Press. Competitive advantages are gaming management expertise and Consolidated Press support. This encourages PBL to take a longer term view before investments generate a suitable return. Longer term, Macau gaming can be thought of as a similar China bet to resources.

Event

* The de-merger vote will be on November 23, ahead of another minor event! You can receive one Crown share and one Consolidated Media Holdings (CMH) share plus $3/share per one PBL. You can choose to accept more Crown shares or more cash, subject to overall caps.

* PBL trades cum-entitlement to the $3/share until November 30. Deferred settlement of Crown and CMH starts on December 3 with normal trading from December 17.

Impact

* The de-merger is messy. The mechanics and taxation aspect are complex.

* Crown will become a promising internationally focused but Australian based gaming stock. CMH will be a shell holding company for residual PBL Media assets and relatively small new media investments.

* We mildly increase our valuation to $16.40/share for Crown, $5.80 for CMH giving $22 for PBL excluding the taxable $3/share. Total value nearly $25 per share.

* You will finally get scrip-for-scrip capital gains tax rollover relief for the Crown and CMH scrip you accept. The $3/share component will be taxable. The 570 page de-merger documents do not give sufficient comprehensive tax information.

* Key short term drivers will obviously be the EGM outcome, Crown's further acquisitions (Tabcorp or Las Vegas?), the FY08 results, Melco PBL's updates and CMH's corporate activity. Mr Packer clearly prefers Crown.

Recommendation Impact (Last Updated: 26/10/2007)

Given the uncertainty, it's probably better for longer-term shareholders to continue. Crown offers longer-term upside but is more fully priced. CMH has flatter growth so will trade on lower multiples. Accumulate/Accept


Might be a good buy, I definately like the Gaming side also!

Could CMH be bought out by Telstra (or maybe even Newscorp) so that either company can increase their stake in the increasingly profitable Foxtel?

Hi All,
I am very much a newbie with some PBL stocks that I've help for a couple of months now. I really dont follow the stockmarket, I just bought it as a part of Commsec's sixpack promotion which includes Commonwealth, Boral, etc.

I then saw that there was a demerger! I wonder what then happens to my PBL shares?

Thanks
Green Investor

KamoteSoup said:

Hi All,
I am very much a newbie with some PBL stocks that I've help for a couple of months now. I really dont follow the stockmarket, I just bought it as a part of Commsec's sixpack promotion which includes Commonwealth, Boral, etc.

I then saw that there was a demerger! I wonder what then happens to my PBL shares?

Thanks
Green Investor

Click to expand...

You should contact the company for confirmation, but if you have not signed any bits of paper saying what you wanted to do under the scheme, I think you now have 1 Crown share, and will be sent $3, for each PBL share you owned.

As well as the Crown share and $3 payment, you will have got a Consolidated Media share (PBLDA) for each PBL share you owned. Enjoy!