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Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

PBL seems to be finding support at $14-00 and resistance at $16-00. It may be retracing the $14-00 level of support or moving sideways. The 1 year chart and the YTD chart suggest that, though the 5 year chart suggests sustained improvement. It's a matter of perspective I guess! The 1 year chart is attached here, with volume. Volume appears to have been a bit more frenetic of late, even though it's trading in a narrow range. As mentioned previously, there are a lot of situations that are impacting this stock. Ecinya noted on 30 June that the Nine Network is looking soft. Nonetheless, worth a watch!
 

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Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Well the big man has finally gone, and I heard someone say on TV that the share price could drop 5%-10%, but then reckoned that would create a buying opportunity.

Will James be able to fill his old man's shoes?

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Hard act to follow GreatPig,

I was thinking that there was no shock over the death so I can't see the price being hit too hard.....but hey, I could be wrong. It might be shorter's paradise out there tomorrow..
 

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Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Ann, I agree with your summation. At present the chart is stable with support easily found at the $16-00 mark. As to whether anyone knew that he was about to die is speculation. In a broader sense, this could focus attention on media stocks for awhile, ahead of possible changes to cross media ownership laws next year. It could be a sector worth watching. Time will tell!
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

The fact that the price is very stable at the moment ,when it could be expected to plunge ,even by experienced analysts means that the fact that Kerry was dying must have been well known among the financial circles, so that could explain the price staying stable.
The thing I`m having trouble understanding is Mr. Packer had two kids,James has always been in the public eye, fair enough,but what part will Gretel play or has she played in the past .And now that Kerry is dead will she take a bigger role in the company if indeed she ever had a role.All those associated with pbl seem to be men,yet at least 40% their money must be generated by women,magazines , for starters,viewers,I`m confused.
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Hi visual

First question.Is Gretel interested? From memory and no-one quote me on this, I think Gretel's husband runs m2m MCL [into the ground] so I doubt there will be much from that area, but I could be wrong.

Looking at the MACD as I said, that was telling me a lot of people knew about Mr Packer and it was no shock.

Now I am wondering if your mumsanddad investor might think themselves really lucky it didn't hit the fan and decide to sell while the going is good?

This might ever so slowly draw the price down. I really don't know but it will be an interesting execise to watch.
 

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Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Ann, whats Gretel husband to do with this,

But anyway going by todays price looks like James has got the vote of confidence,for now I think pbl will be a look and see.After all the people who werent quite sure about him made their choice around august by the look of things,according to your chart.
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

visual said:
Ann, whats Gretel husband to do with this,
Click to expand...

I think Gretel would have taken over the reigns of one of Dad's companies instead of her husband, if she had been interested.

There is talk about splitting PBL. Insto chat suggests two halves will have a greater value than one whole. I don't know that the price today has a great deal to do with confidence in James. There is a bigger picture. I don't think he is in the frame.

However the next few weeks will be of more interest than the short term.
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

On the funnymentals side I heard comments on the 7.30 report saying that a lot of the pressure for cross media ownership changes came from Packer, with him gone that'll ease so maybe less activity on that front but who knows? Packer's commercial acumen and judgement is what'll be missed in my opinion but James has had plenty of grooming (and a character building disaster) to help him through.

Technically prices are coiling/compressing so I expect a strong move in some direction, bet would be up based on general trend but note the proximity to the recent uptrend line of this wave. Volumes are hard to go by during holiday seasons so let's see what happens in early January.
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Ann said:
I think Gretel would have taken over the reigns of one of Dad's companies instead of her husband, if she had been interested.

...
Click to expand...
The last few paras of this article suggest Gretel may still seek some role in PBL, not sure how much she gained during her period with Cleo and the magz at PBL, if she's not bright but has 'business intuition' she may be the first female Packer to make an impact as it sounds like she has a bit of her Dad's characteristics, at least on the surface. It's hard to really know as these are just unsubstantiated newspaper articles, even the sources aren't fully disclosed: http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...st-big-decision/2005/12/31/1135915723955.html
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Thanks for that link about Gretel RichKid,

My old Ma used to say....."one out, one in". In other words the newest to die gave up the soul to the newest to be born.

Perhaps Mr. Packer was familiar with this saying as well.

I think Mr. Packer has organized the next progression of PBL. He has had plenty of warning and he would have been capable of collecting good people around him. He would also have been able to assess peoples' abilities, and capabilities.

If that is Gretel's genuine reaction about her father's passing, then she would never be able to take over the reigns of a dog eat dog business. James loves the casinos, but not much else. Let's not forget about the 30 million dollar man that went over to Mr. Packer from BTs......was it Chris somebody-or-other. Forgot the name......getting old!
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

I think Gretel reaction going by that article can be put down to the realisation that as a woman she wasnt important enough for her dad to make a sacrifice and hold out for just two more weeks(he might have had enough and truly wanted to die with dignity)however again by that article she would`ve known that had James been in her shoes the situation might have been different.


I doubt that Gretel will play a major role in pbl and it`s course has already been decided,I would think that going by the market decision it is now a truly look and see situation.

Even the news that he might sell channel nine seems to have made a non impression on people.

By the way Richkid,thanks for that article very interesting,who knows it may all be a kind of publicity on Gretel behalf to ease her into the spotlight now that Kerrys gone,but maybe i`m too cynical.
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

visual said:
....
By the way Richkid,thanks for that article very interesting,who knows it may all be a kind of publicity on Gretel behalf to ease her into the spotlight now that Kerrys gone,but maybe i`m too cynical.
Click to expand...

Glad you folks liked it. I don't think we even have half the story here though, these family empires and large conglomerates are notriously complex, family members often scheme against one another. Was it Sam Chisholm who was brought in last year by Kerry to replace someoe else or have I mixed up my facts? I'd say he'd know a hellavu lot about what's going to happen. Also remember that people don't have to make their move now, these games are often played out over many years or decades, James could be 'taken out' when he's weak as all the pressure is on him now- this is his time to make or break it, that one tel disaster is one he had to face, he's lucky his dad was around at the time.
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Nah, I reckon it has all been worked out in advance.

We....the members of the great uninformed will just have to sit it out until those that are in the know, filter down the information to us.

You know, crumbs falling from the table!

I wonder how many crumbs will fall before this plays out..... :
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?


Ann,

Re your last sentence: I think you're thinking of Chris Cuffe who went from Colonial First State, (not BT) where he produced astonishing results. CFS has gone downhill since he left. He is now, I think, CEO of Challenger Financial Services.

Julia
 
Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

Well done Julia!

Spot on. Just the man I was meaning.

Terrible when you get older and the grey matter starts to get wrinkles in it!
 
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