Kauri said:Tech,
Nothing to do with your count but the way Miner's software sees the simple ABC, of course not including projections for the larger degree W(2). By the way, would the B wave in your chart be right labelled abc as opposed to 123???
I think XJO will remain under 6000 for
THE NEXT 5 YEARS
Correction is over?
Was tempted to short the ASX200 last night, was only 40points down with IG
hello guys,
interesting thread
however from what I have read sofar, nobody has come up with a strategy that when they have a long portfolio a correction will be neutral to their p/l.
And lets be fair: the correction was only small, but NOBODY knows what might happen tomorrow.
Could be a 25% drop, anything is possible.
Things being said:
1. I have a stop loss of 10% on my positions: you still lose at least 10%
2. I sold all my positions, because I felt a correction was near: your timing could be totally wrong and you would "lose" a lot of money in opportunity cost
3. the worst is the majority of traders: they hope for the best, but could lose the lot.
A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
no professionals here????
havent gone to 100% cash like others as if i sell my long term portfolio will be up for some big CGT.
so im sorta stuck, i have sold what i could now holding what i see as some sound stocks (IMO anyway).
you could always try hedging.hello guys,
interesting thread
however from what I have read sofar, nobody has come up with a strategy that when they have a long portfolio a correction will be neutral to their p/l.
And lets be fair: the correction was only small, but NOBODY knows what might happen tomorrow.
Could be a 25% drop, anything is possible.
Things being said:
1. I have a stop loss of 10% on my positions: you still lose at least 10%
2. I sold all my positions, because I felt a correction was near: your timing could be totally wrong and you would "lose" a lot of money in opportunity cost
3. the worst is the majority of traders: they hope for the best, but could lose the lot.
A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
no professionals here????
that`s why you need a good strategy for those days that WILL come around.
some say: ah well I`ll weather the down turn and it will go up again. She`ll be right mate; just plain laziness.
Now you`re also hesitant to sell if you need to because of CGT. But there are ways to cover yourself without selling your portfolio.
Well when the day comes, there might be no CGT for you to worry about at all.
Be a professional and get your cover.
Not quite true. Some professional will hedge themselves, but hedging (in speculative terms rather than productive terms) simply transfers risk from one spot to another.A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
no professionals here????
I doubt I'll see longterm buy signals for a while as they operate off the Highest high for 70 bars and a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars (double dutch I know) but it keeps you out of taking long positions longerterm if there is a prolonged correction.
hi dj
just a little uncertainty about economics or a melt down somewhere and there will be no ships waiting to be loaded.
And as far as your metal stocks are concerned, nobody would be interested in the least that they are near production
Yeah,hi Wayne,
we can only try to cover our risks as good as possible.
thats why I have 2 internet connections and 2 computers and stop loss orders in the market in case we have a technical breakdown and I am helpless and can only watch.
a library with a computer/internet connection is around the corner from here.
for the long position risk you can have a short portfolio to balance the market risk.
drawbacks are that you probably lose or break-even at best in a rising market and double the work with 2 portfolios`
The thing with OTM puts is that you have low delta, and hence more downside risk. It becomes cheaper, but your "excess" (to use insurance parlance) becomes very much greater, viz, more risk. Therefore this sort of cover is really only against a black swan. Maybe that's all you're after, but that's not "Every eventuality". At 3% per year, thats quite a long way OTM at current volatilities, 600 pts or so at a guess.for market risk I would rather have a OTM option than ATM
option on an index rather than a stock.
it has been calculated that the insurance will cost about 3% of the portfolio value per year.
Agree, I don't like CFD's for that reason... counterparty risk.and what about your money/cfd/shareholding with your broker: are those assets insured somehow if your broker goes belly up.
strange that everybody seems to take home insurance for granted and you might never claim against it in your whole life.
as for portfolio insurance you bet it will happen in your life time, so it is wise to think about it.
unless you can afford to lose
if my trading is just a hobby ok, but if it is my bread and butter I better look at it as a business and minimise every risk. there is far more to it than just trading.
My specialty, I have lot's of them. Again, not all is cut and dried here either. Market neutral bets (using options that is) is inherently a volatility bet. Better know what your doing here.so there`s nobody here with a good market neutral strategy?
Good on you dj for such a good performance. you`re doing better than I do with my performance at only 77.5% without leverage in about the same period.
And no, I`m not critisizing your methods at all, but I just would like you to KEEP what you already achieved.
And no, I`m not selling anything - I just leave that to the gurus`
As to my protection plan, I just have an idea but I would like to see what other people do to protect their asset, but I think that nobody is really interested in a 100% protection.
And you`re right to concentrate on a particular part of the economy that is doing so well.
I`ve been at it for 9 years now - usually 2 steps forward and 1 ½ back and now I am making very good money with a good strategy, I dont want to lose it somehow. That`s why I am in the process of covering every angle as a true professional. After all trading pays all my bills plus plenty left and I want it to keep doing that even when the market goes down.
With on average 50 trades a month I dont consider myself a mum and dad investor and my appetite for risk is pretty high. And that`s perfectly alright as long as you know where the exit is.
Well dj, when you are weathering the storm - I will be running for the shelter
hi tech/a,
Do you trade index futures?
Highest high for 70 bars means highest price for the last 70 days and what is a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars?
Is this your long term account with positions lasting months/years?
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