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P2: A batch of FX market trades

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Yeah intraday data is very resource intensive!
 
Hi P2, firstly all the best with your new project and and congrats for taking it on. as always i find your posts very helpful and appreciate the time you take to do so.
it looks to me from the work with pinbars on 4B that you have already gained some value timewise here, as well as useful stats -( 40 trades/month) .
do you envisage continuing to trade on a discretionary basis whilst building the EA and having it slowly take on more of the work for you as it becomes viable, or, is it one or the other?, discretionary or full EA.
 
@James Austin Thank you for starting a conversation. Hope your trade reaches its target.

I assume the big marabozu was your bullish System 4B bar. That definitely changed the 4hr trend to up.
Good entry and placement of your iSL. You've decided to target for +1R which is conservative. Looking left there was some supply at your target. I'd be tempted to let price hit your upper band.

CHFJPY: This is a bizarre pair to trade. Looking at my currency strength indicator CHF is neutral, while JPY is weak. This pair will only go higher on the JPY weakness alone. I prefer to couple a strong currency with a weak one.

If you look at the indicator knowing that JPY is weak, which were the strongest currencies then?
NZD GBP right. Have a look at the charts of NZDJPY, GBPJPY.

Was there a good setup for us in either of those two 4hr charts? I like the NZDJPY one best.
 
Thanks for starting the thread Peter. I'd like to be better at FX on H4.

The downtrend followed by the convincing MA crossover (3 green arrows) caught my attention on CHFJPY; which has just now reached TP.

Yes, I usually go 1:1, I haven’t found a way to go 1:2 just yet.

As for the strength meter, I have used Hanover's meter. I found it added no value. But I may change my mind on that.

NJ is certainly strong but at +100% ADR its not for me.

I will post more set-ups as I find them.
 
peter2 said:
So long as you realise that your W% has to be >60% before 1:1 RR makes reasonable money.
Click to expand...

If I hang around this thread I am sure it will exceed 80% (wink)

At present I exit at 75% of ADR, which I like to do.
Tighter stops and entries at the ema and I may get to 1:2, 1:1.5, whilst maintaining the same exit 75% ADR. Something to work on.....

It's way past my bed time here in Bris. I'll post more setups in real time if I think I've found one.

Bye.
 
is this a 4B?.....nice bullish bars (green arrows)....price going back to channel top?

I need to refine my set-ups, entries, SL and TPs for the H4
at present I favour a bounce off the ema in a trend as the preferred set-up (enter first or second retrace/pullback)

in the meantime I'll put charts/trades up for some much needed humility (wink)





.
 
System 4B is an entry based solely on the price action of one 4hr bar. The huge outside reversal bar in the AUDCAD chart is a good example. The 4B entry is the open of the next bar. This system doesn't consider the trend or waits for a pull-back.

System 4T considers the trend established (by your own definition) and then needs a setup and trigger to enter the trend.

@James Austin if you like to enter on a first/second pull-back in the trend then they're all System 4T (trend) trades.

re: the EJ chart. When there's a channel (bands going sideways) I prefer to start longs near the bottom not in the middle. Although your entry was sound (using the pin bar(doji) with the trend) it was in the middle of this channel. EJ now has to work it's way through the supply indicated by the wick of the next bar and top of the channel.
 
Thanks for clarification Peter. I will post only charts that match your definitions.

According to your own definition of a trend, what is the av. number of H4 fx opportunities each month?
Do you have any stats?
 
I'm pleased you didn't think I was nitpicking. It's important to be very clear in what we're trading.
System 4B bars are generally big bars with larger stop sizes if we use them conservatively. Bigger initial stop sizes mean we need a much larger move to get to our desired profit requirements (>1.5R).

When I start a 4B trade I'd prefer to be going with the daily trend and I'd expect to hold the trade over many days, even a week.

Let's discuss trend definition. I've defined it using the two EMAs, however I also consider the price structure. A new trend starts with the EMAs but I define this new trend as established (and ready to trade) if the price action goes through a sloping resistance line (supply line), or through a horizontal R line, or makes a new 123Low pattern.

This is to avoid being caught in a sideways trading range/channel. It doesn't always work and I get caught occasionally.
 
The average # setups / week is 10 - 15. More than enough for me.
Also many of these setups are in highly correlated markets and I'll limit myself to starting only two.
eg. When the USD weakens there'll be simultaneous long setups in the AU, EU, GU, NZDU, UJ pairs. I'll only start two and try to select the best.
 
Thanks for your trend definition Peter.

Yes, 10-15 trend opportunities is more than enough, all on H4 which is relaxing.

As for strongly correlated pairs, I tend to only take one at a time.
*AU, BE SL
 
Well shut my mouth and climb out of the rabbit hole. Seems like someone else has beaten me to it.
60% a month and everyone can get a free copy.
 
I will need to refine my setups.
EJ, mid channel, is not the best probability, as you mentioned.
As for ACa, whichever way it goes, I have no complaints.

UJ looks like a 4T to me.
 
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