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P2: A batch of FX market trades
- Thread starter peter2
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OK let's discuss UJ in respect of Sys 4B and Sys 4T.
Sys 4B. The bullish bar arrowed (yellow) is the 4B setup as this bar completes a two bar bullish HCD and changes the trend to up. The 4B entry was the next open with an iSL below the entry bar or the prior bar. This 4B entry is an early start into a possible reversal as the daily trend remains down. Our goals for this trade is to grab a quick +1R (or 1.5R) or stay in longer in anticipation of a daily trend change. If this happens we'll add to the trade and ride it for as long as we can. Two completely different trade management strategies.
Sys 4T: We note the 4hr trend change (yellow arrow) but the price action hasn't established a new trend based on the price structure. This could be just a deeper correction of the existing daily down trend. This is not enough for me to consider a 4T trade here.
Price continued climbing slowly (producing a winning 4B result) and it's only now that we see a possible 1st pull-back to the EMAs.
Looking to the left we notice prior wicks indicating supply (lower green line). I'll buy the BO of the high targeting the higher green line or I'll wait for this bar to close provided that this bar doesn't change the 4hr trend to down. A high quality 4T setup is not present for me in this chart.
ps: For the intraday traders there may have been a reasonable Sys 4T setup in the 4hr pinbar to the left of the white arrow. I haven't looked.
Sys 4B. The bullish bar arrowed (yellow) is the 4B setup as this bar completes a two bar bullish HCD and changes the trend to up. The 4B entry was the next open with an iSL below the entry bar or the prior bar. This 4B entry is an early start into a possible reversal as the daily trend remains down. Our goals for this trade is to grab a quick +1R (or 1.5R) or stay in longer in anticipation of a daily trend change. If this happens we'll add to the trade and ride it for as long as we can. Two completely different trade management strategies.
Sys 4T: We note the 4hr trend change (yellow arrow) but the price action hasn't established a new trend based on the price structure. This could be just a deeper correction of the existing daily down trend. This is not enough for me to consider a 4T trade here.
Price continued climbing slowly (producing a winning 4B result) and it's only now that we see a possible 1st pull-back to the EMAs.
Looking to the left we notice prior wicks indicating supply (lower green line). I'll buy the BO of the high targeting the higher green line or I'll wait for this bar to close provided that this bar doesn't change the 4hr trend to down. A high quality 4T setup is not present for me in this chart.
ps: For the intraday traders there may have been a reasonable Sys 4T setup in the 4hr pinbar to the left of the white arrow. I haven't looked.
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Very detailed Peter, thanks.
As for the 4B, I see a version of that play out reasonably regularly; although the entry comes after a confirmation bar. I have no stats, it's just a hunch that it could be a reasonably reliable pattern....and worth investigating. (1:1)
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As for the 4B, I see a version of that play out reasonably regularly; although the entry comes after a confirmation bar. I have no stats, it's just a hunch that it could be a reasonably reliable pattern....and worth investigating. (1:1)
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EURUSD from last week, is a similar setup to USDJPY this week.
It is a buy if price comes back. TP just below weekly range high.
As for AUDCAD I can see it was too early to be a 4T. At best it was a late entry 4B, which is low probability.
I am seeing a pattern.
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It is a buy if price comes back. TP just below weekly range high.
As for AUDCAD I can see it was too early to be a 4T. At best it was a late entry 4B, which is low probability.
I am seeing a pattern.
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what's the likelihood of getting filled?
either way it's like "biting the bullet"
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either way it's like "biting the bullet"
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bitten the bullet, on both USDJPY and EURUSD
maybe these are 4T's?
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maybe these are 4T's?
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CHFJPY +1
AUDUSD BE
AUDCAD -1 (not a 4T = no trade)
EURJPY -1 (not a 4T = no trade)
USDJPY -1 (I believe D1 should have been above MA's to buy this, if so, not a 4T = no trade)
EURUSD +1
Lots of work for no reward.
Am I clogging your thread? Please let me know.
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AUDUSD BE
AUDCAD -1 (not a 4T = no trade)
EURJPY -1 (not a 4T = no trade)
USDJPY -1 (I believe D1 should have been above MA's to buy this, if so, not a 4T = no trade)
EURUSD +1
Lots of work for no reward.
Am I clogging your thread? Please let me know.
.
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I believe this is a 4B; outside bar, engulfing, depending upon your definition.
H4 trend is down
Strong daily close below MA's
Supply zone (purple)
should I be concerned about pending CNY news at 1200....
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H4 trend is down
Strong daily close below MA's
Supply zone (purple)
should I be concerned about pending CNY news at 1200....
.
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If you're working on your entry refinement then you're not clogging this thread. I'm happy to help. Plus, every time you post, I learn a little more about your trading personality which will help me help you.
Many of the suggestions I write for you will no doubt help others. Are you ready?
(i) You've written "bite the bullet" twice. This indicates a lack of confidence. You should try to identify which aspect of your TP creates this lack of confidence. Is it the setups, your trade management, your trading history, recent results etc.
If you're attempting to trade a new system then it's important to back test so that you're totally familiar with the setups, trade mgt and the distribution of the results (W%, AW, AL max DD). If you haven't done this yourself then how can you be confident?
This is the most important requirement for a trader.
(ii) Consistency. I suggest you stick to one System either 4B or 4T. You've already stated that you like trading the 1st/2nd pullback of System 4T. Stick to it. Ignore the 4B possibilities.
eg. Your EURAUD chart. The 1st pull-back setup/entry in this current 4hr trend was 4 bars back from the outside engulfing bar. Your entry is late if your TP trades the 1st PB.
Trade Mgt: You initially stated that you prefer targeting +1R. Stick to this until you build confidence to start managing for more.
Recent trades you've posted:
CJ: target +1R done
AU: raised exit to BE, out before trade hit +1R
ACad: loss -1R
EJ: had the opportunity to raise exit to -0.5R after bearish doji formed.
UJ: didn't take +1R, instead took full loss
EU: target +1R done.
Six trades: 4 x +1R, 2 losses for -1.5R. Net positive
Trade mgt has been inconsistent resulting in -1R / 6T
Many of the suggestions I write for you will no doubt help others. Are you ready?
(i) You've written "bite the bullet" twice. This indicates a lack of confidence. You should try to identify which aspect of your TP creates this lack of confidence. Is it the setups, your trade management, your trading history, recent results etc.
If you're attempting to trade a new system then it's important to back test so that you're totally familiar with the setups, trade mgt and the distribution of the results (W%, AW, AL max DD). If you haven't done this yourself then how can you be confident?
This is the most important requirement for a trader.
(ii) Consistency. I suggest you stick to one System either 4B or 4T. You've already stated that you like trading the 1st/2nd pullback of System 4T. Stick to it. Ignore the 4B possibilities.
eg. Your EURAUD chart. The 1st pull-back setup/entry in this current 4hr trend was 4 bars back from the outside engulfing bar. Your entry is late if your TP trades the 1st PB.
Trade Mgt: You initially stated that you prefer targeting +1R. Stick to this until you build confidence to start managing for more.
Recent trades you've posted:
CJ: target +1R done
AU: raised exit to BE, out before trade hit +1R
ACad: loss -1R
EJ: had the opportunity to raise exit to -0.5R after bearish doji formed.
UJ: didn't take +1R, instead took full loss
EU: target +1R done.
Six trades: 4 x +1R, 2 losses for -1.5R. Net positive
Trade mgt has been inconsistent resulting in -1R / 6T
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There seems to be some confusion regarding Sys 4T trends. The trend is defined by the two EMAs on the 4Hr chart. The daily trend is not involved unless you'd like it to be part of your TP.
I've mentioned that I prefer to look at recent price action as confirmation for my System 4T setups.
I've mentioned that I prefer to look at recent price action as confirmation for my System 4T setups.
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Thanks for the feedback Peter, and the willingness to help.
This week was my first week looking at your approach to H4; plus my first week forward testing what I've understood so far. Hence, "biting the bullet", whilst mostly tongue in check, represents a lack of data. But as you say back testing will assist, as will forward testing.
And yes you are right. I need to get better at optimising entry price, managing stops and setting targets. Set and forget 1:1 RR is relaxing but not optimal. This will come as I home in on the preferred set-ups.
As for my preferred set-ups, I don’t have enough data to decide yet. Posting charts here as set-ups occur will help me to thrash that out,.....the errors will focus the attention.
I will post more H4 charts next week.
This week was my first week looking at your approach to H4; plus my first week forward testing what I've understood so far. Hence, "biting the bullet", whilst mostly tongue in check, represents a lack of data. But as you say back testing will assist, as will forward testing.
And yes you are right. I need to get better at optimising entry price, managing stops and setting targets. Set and forget 1:1 RR is relaxing but not optimal. This will come as I home in on the preferred set-ups.
As for my preferred set-ups, I don’t have enough data to decide yet. Posting charts here as set-ups occur will help me to thrash that out,.....the errors will focus the attention.
I will post more H4 charts next week.
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last chart for this week
is it wise to take 2 trades at the same time in strongly correlated pairs....
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is it wise to take 2 trades at the same time in strongly correlated pairs....
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heh he . cmon Jimmy . dont be embarrassed about your size
seriously it doesnt matter here. Even Demo is ok. better to lose a little money while learning ,than what many do and lose thousands. (Im assuming its not covered because its massive!).
I think Peter said 2 correlated pairs is max. if you see more perhaps take the 2 with the highest potential RR ratio.or halve the risk on each one.
look for nearest supports resistance . round nos . ma's etc
seriously it doesnt matter here. Even Demo is ok. better to lose a little money while learning ,than what many do and lose thousands. (Im assuming its not covered because its massive!).
I think Peter said 2 correlated pairs is max. if you see more perhaps take the 2 with the highest potential RR ratio.or halve the risk on each one.
look for nearest supports resistance . round nos . ma's etc
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Latest entries as the UK session starts.
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heh he . cmon Jimmy . dont be embarrassed about your size
I cover up so that you don't feel self-conscious about your size.
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@James Austin That was a bizarre entry into AUDNZD. Hope you got out at BE.
I'm not interested in the money, only that a process is consistently applied. I would rather fade these weekends gaps but that's another TP.
Trade mgt: A new week and my aim is to earn the weekly wages (+2R).
Looks like momentum is greater in the EU than GBP. EU at +1R, EJ at +1R and GU BE.
It's possible for me to close all trades now for +2R and that's my wages for the week.
I'll lock in +1R and allow the three trades to get to +3R. We all like a bonus.
Almost there...
I'm not interested in the money, only that a process is consistently applied. I would rather fade these weekends gaps but that's another TP.
Trade mgt: A new week and my aim is to earn the weekly wages (+2R).
Looks like momentum is greater in the EU than GBP. EU at +1R, EJ at +1R and GU BE.
It's possible for me to close all trades now for +2R and that's my wages for the week.
I'll lock in +1R and allow the three trades to get to +3R. We all like a bonus.
Almost there...
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All closed for+2.9R .
Of course I'm not going to stop trading for the week, but trading like this early in the week takes the pressure off.
Of course I'm not going to stop trading for the week, but trading like this early in the week takes the pressure off.
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Hi Peter, just a subjective question about the entry on the gbpusd. Was the uptrend confirmed ? Looks like the red/blue ema lines haven't quite crossed when the setup occurred.
Good result, nevertheless.
