OZL - Oz Minerals

[Ken]

Before buying OZL worth considering whether out of all the trades in the last 12 months... Are you good enough to pick the absolute bottom of the stock??

chances are you are not.

better places to be than OZL.

BHP or RIO i would have thought is a better risk reward, and above that OZL and sentiment is negative to this stock.

 

[Spineli]

Was this guy right in selling and covering his losses?

Shorters thrive on behavioral trading like this. They continue shorting till they scare enough people into selling their stocks and taking losses.

Someone said above that a newbie would still be holding. I disagree in part. Yes, while a newbie may hope for the price to rebound (and take larger losses in the meantime), a value investor who invests on a medium to long term basis would not be receptive to mild price movements in the downward direction, but will be likely to consolidate. As such if more value investors existed in a stock and less 'easily frightened investors (gamblers/newbies)' existed, shorters would have a hard time making money in that particular stock, as they would have trouble covering their shorts.

 

[nioka]

Before buying OZL worth considering whether out of all the trades in the last 12 months... Are you good enough to pick the absolute bottom of the stock??

chances are you are not.

better places to be than OZL..

You don't have to pick the absolute bottom to make a good buy. It is better if you can but we are only that smart with hindsight. The most important thing is to get value. If I decide there is value, (and I made this decision on OZL) then I will buy. Too many times over the years I have missed out on a good buy by trying to buy at the absolute bottom.

Maybe there are better places to be than OZL but there are many worse ones also.

 

[Ken]

I believe the problem is that the value for OZL changes as there are so many variables in this company.

There was a fine line between ZFX being a postive cash flow company and a break even company. Look at PEM and how the price of zinc falling has affected them.

ZFX bought AGM which is a nickell company, and look at the price of MRE and the price of nickel.

OZL has basically bought zinc, and nickel, which has falling, and if you go off the other one product producers you would have to think they are not making a profit.

And you only have to look at Newcrest mining, and that doesn't help the gold is at 12 month lows.

They might have prices hedged, but we all know that OXR and ZFX rose on the rising commodity prices, and now they are falling on them.

Looking at what people are making in the mines also you would have to think that wages are hurting the companies.

I am not saying OZL isn't cheap, but there are far more negatives than positives for OZL at the moment considering the aquisitions they have made which right now would have been cheaper if they weren't made.

AGM would be 20 cents, and ZFX would have been a lot cheaper than $9.

OXR shareholders I believe would have been better off not merging.... as zinc and nickel margins have been squeezed the hardest.

After losing money on BNB when brokers said it was good value at $10 I try and pay more respect to the chart now, because the chart knows more than me.

How well do you really understand OZL post mergers and aquisitions?

 

[roland]

The discussions on the right time to buy OZL is like almost every other stock and depends greatly on what you are trying to achieve with your purchase.

I am currently buying and am not too fussed with the current weakness. Actually I see the weakness as an investing opportunity.

If you are a trader and expect to gain quick profits, then any stock in a downward trend is going to be a bad choice. This probably makes up 95% of the market right now - including OZL.

Generally speaking, when a stock is in a downward trend, then almost any purchase is going to end up being a disappointment if you are wanting a quick return. Having said that, of course even if you are looking for purchasing for the longer term, then a downward trend would be equally disappointing.

There are many threads here on ASF regarding averaging down as being something we shouldn't do (apart from not buying in a downward trending stock) - so why am I buying???

Good question, and we each need to ask ourselves before buying any stock - "why am I buying"?

I am buying because:

- I believe that the stock is priced below where it should be
- I previously bought at a higher price and am now averaging down

I entered OZL at $1.98 some time back knowing full well that there was a strong chance of the SP falling back even further. I entered lightly and timed it for a dividend return, I have bought at every 5% drop and have also sold twice as the SP improves, so with the dividend and some profits I am only just a little behind.

The obvious problem with OZL are the global metals prices, I personally don't think that there is much wrong with the company. Some are blaming Zn, and/or the Zinifex merger bringing on a liability - but the merger also brought in a ton of cash in the bank as well - work out the interest on $1.2 Billion - got to be a good thing

OZL will continue to be weak whilst metals prices are down, but we are multi faceted and set to benefit when one of our metals takes off.

Just my own thoughts here - just felt like practising my typing

 

[nioka]

Another preopen sale.1,323,285 for $4,111,793. One of these days I'll log on and not see any of these sales. That is when the price may stop it's disasterous fall. The buyers of these shares must be having nightmares and I would guess they are no longer fans of OZL. According to the preopen quotes we should open a little higher today.

 

[tech/a]

Another preopen sale.1,323,285 for $4,111,793. One of these days I'll log on and not see any of these sales. That is when the price may stop it's disasterous fall. The buyers of these shares must be having nightmares and I would guess they are no longer fans of OZL. According to the preopen quotes we should open a little higher today.

Here is why.
Having a dabble myself today.
There is suggestion from other scources that capitulation has possibly occured in this down move.
VSA tends to confirm this.

 

[nioka]

Here is why.
Having a dabble myself today.
There is suggestion from other scources that capitulation has possibly occured in this down move.
VSA tends to confirm this.

Very interesting post. Particularly when you look at those prices. There are large losses there for those that speculated at the prices quoted. As I said the buyers of those shares would no longer be fans of OZL. This has been going on daily for some time now.

 

[tech/a]

Personally I want confirmation that things are reversing so buy stop is $1.40.

Still looks weak from current trading.

 

[oldblue]

I actually received a further reply from the company to my email advising that there were 9 pre-opening transactions on 9 September at $2-25 for 65,000 shares approx.
Doesn't help much - big discrepancy in numbers.

 

[PhoenixXx]

OZ Minerals shuts SA site after accident
Thursday September 11, 2008, 11:30 am

OZ Minerals Ltd has temporarily shut down its Prominent Hill site in South Australia after an employee of a contracting firm engaged by the company was killed.

The worker died in a single light vehicle accident about 35 kilometres from the Prominent Hill gold and copper mine site.

The person was a construction supervisor working on the development of the borefield supplying water for the processing facilities some 45 kilometres from the mine.

OZ Minerals, which was recently formed from the merger of Zinifex and Oxiana, said police arrived at the site on Wednesday to investigations the accident.

"Worksafe SA has been notified and will be on site today to carry out their investigations," OZ Minerals said.

"Management will, of course, be cooperating fully with authorities in these investigations."

OZ Minerals said all activities on site have been shut down for half a day as a mark of respect.

"OZ Minerals senior management are on site to brief staff and conduct further accident investigations," it added.

Seems like Prominent Hills is shut today and hopefully the investigation will be over soon so they can resume their operations.

 

[nioka]

I actually received a further reply from the company to my email advising that there were 9 pre-opening transactions on 9 September at $2-25 for 65,000 shares approx.
Doesn't help much - big discrepancy in numbers.

The figures I quote are taken directly from my watchlist with Westpac when I log on each morning. Someone is having us on here. Can't see why the Westpac figures would not be correct.???????????????

 

[oldblue]

The figures I quote are taken directly from my watchlist with Westpac when I log on each morning. Someone is having us on here. Can't see why the Westpac figures would not be correct.???????????????

And to further add to the puzzle, OZL have announced the price for upcoming dividend reinvestment plan as $1-4333 per share. This is the VWAP ( weighted average price) of shares sold between 4 and 10 September, less discount of 2.5% I guess it is inflated by those " great prices" in preopen?
Disc: Pleased to say I don't reinvest my OZL divs!

 

[tech/a]

The figures I quote are taken directly from my watchlist with Westpac when I log on each morning. Someone is having us on here. Can't see why the Westpac figures would not be correct.???????????????

No conspiricy these are exercised put options
some people are cleaning up!

A put gives its owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell the stock at the strike price. But the seller of a put must buy the stock at the strike price whenever the put owner exercises.

 

[oldblue]

No conspiricy these are exercised put options
some people are cleaning up!

A put gives its owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell the stock at the strike price. But the seller of a put must buy the stock at the strike price whenever the put owner exercises.

Yes, we're aware of that. The point is that the preopen sales advised to me by the company for 9 September don't tally with nioka's Westpac figures.
Mind you, it could be just that OZL aren't aware of all the sales but why that would be is anyone's guess.

 

[Mofra]

Yes, we're aware of that. The point is that the preopen sales advised to me by the company for 9 September don't tally with nioka's Westpac figures.
Mind you, it could be just that OZL aren't aware of all the sales but why that would be is anyone's guess.

As a possibility, if the shares are not held long enough to be recorded on the company register (ie held less than 3 working days from the trade date) would the company have information on them in the first place?

 

[nioka]

As a possibility, if the shares are not held long enough to be recorded on the company register (ie held less than 3 working days from the trade date) would the company have information on them in the first place?

That is a good point and would add to my theory that those buying can't afford to hold and are reselling at a loss. HOWEVER today is the 11th and they quote preopen sales for the 9th, only 2 days??? still the mystery lingers.

 

[tech/a]

Thought Id pop this up.

In VSA Volume Spread analysis this is a very strong signal un fortunately in this case its short!
Look for these Patterns both long and short on charts.
You'll be suprised at the results.
High volume in one direction
Followed by no demand (Trading in the opposite direction to the high volume previous bar) with the high at or very near the high of the previous high volume bar.
And a close at slightly before or past the previous high volume bars high or low.

 

[Ken]

looking at the price of gold OZL is just caught up in the selling.

I am only speculating put there will be some buyers of OZL that will make some fast dollars on a short term turn around.

I am not skillfull enough to pick when, but when short sellers cover there positions, this is when it has happened in my experience of watching falling stock....

What OZL and all mining companies want to see is a the US dollar give up some of its gains.... thus seeing gold bounce back...

 

[Nyden]

The discussions on the right time to buy OZL is like almost every other stock and depends greatly on what you are trying to achieve with your purchase.

I am currently buying and am not too fussed with the current weakness. Actually I see the weakness as an investing opportunity.

If you are a trader and expect to gain quick profits, then any stock in a downward trend is going to be a bad choice. This probably makes up 95% of the market right now - including OZL.

Generally speaking, when a stock is in a downward trend, then almost any purchase is going to end up being a disappointment if you are wanting a quick return. Having said that, of course even if you are looking for purchasing for the longer term, then a downward trend would be equally disappointing.

There are many threads here on ASF regarding averaging down as being something we shouldn't do (apart from not buying in a downward trending stock) - so why am I buying???

Good question, and we each need to ask ourselves before buying any stock - "why am I buying"?

I am buying because:

- I believe that the stock is priced below where it should be
- I previously bought at a higher price and am now averaging down

I entered OZL at $1.98 some time back knowing full well that there was a strong chance of the SP falling back even further. I entered lightly and timed it for a dividend return, I have bought at every 5% drop and have also sold twice as the SP improves, so with the dividend and some profits I am only just a little behind.

The obvious problem with OZL are the global metals prices, I personally don't think that there is much wrong with the company. Some are blaming Zn, and/or the Zinifex merger bringing on a liability - but the merger also brought in a ton of cash in the bank as well - work out the interest on $1.2 Billion - got to be a good thing

OZL will continue to be weak whilst metals prices are down, but we are multi faceted and set to benefit when one of our metals takes off.

Just my own thoughts here - just felt like practising my typing

The danger in averaging down though Roland; is that you now hold a much larger position in a stock that is in a terrible downtrend, and could continue to fall much further.

Averaging down only works if you're lucky enough to pick with a short-term (good) future, as well as if you have enough money to keep on buying more!

It's the same on the blackjack table, sure - just keep doubling your bet each time you lose ... works a treat


...

Are you going to keep buying if it continues to fall all the way down to $1? Don't say it couldn't happen either, heck - we've fallen over 6-7% a day for nearly a week! What if we don't get any sharp spikes upward for you to sell into, and it just keeps on falling? Commodities keep falling, AUD seems to have found support at 80c, gold is all but trashed ... I've said it once I'll say it again -I honestly see no upside.