OZL - Oz Minerals

[treefrog]

OZL is worth more.
..........
Currently the cash is worth 38 cents of the 98 cents or about 38% of the share price
The mines must be worth 60 cents or about $2 bn
on the books all mines and the equipment is probably worth about $1.29
so they put a fortune into these mines
about $4bn and all they have to show for it is 98 cents on the stockmarket
should be about $1.67 minimum on cash and equipment
the reserves are worth at least $1.52

check this out as to why it just ain't so...........
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=47099
"This uncertainty has led to a plunge in mining stocks, many of which have lost 80 per cent or more of their value and are now "trading at the cash on their books," said Andrew Martyn, a vice-president at Toronto-based investment counsel Davis-Rea Ltd.
"Making the assumption that they don't continue to spend major portions of capital on mine expansions, they're trading at working capital levels and you get the mines for free," said Martyn.

 

[nulla nulla]

At $1.00, going going... any bidders ladies & gentlemen? As a longterm hold looking to recoveries in metal prices??? Will it get any cheaper?

 

[PP123]

Is there anything in the pipeline to believe these shares will get back up to the former glory days, or was it just a hype run, and these are the true value of these shares.
I just bought some @ $1 as there has been some talk they are so under valued and this price is just based on fear than anything and it ahould be a $4+ Company??
Thoughts?

 

[Nyden]

Is there anything in the pipeline to believe these shares will get back up to the former glory days, or was it just a hype run, and these are the true value of these shares.
I just bought some @ $1 as there has been some talk they are so under valued and this price is just based on fear than anything and it ahould be a $4+ Company??
Thoughts?

Based on fear? Copper is lower than $2 a pound (with a gloomy outlook), Zinc is under 50c, Nickel has been trashed (in 60 days it's more than halved) ... and the outlook is still for a global recession, and potentially even much lower prices.

There are surpluses of base metals building up, and with few (with the exception of Zinc) miners lowering output ... this isn't going to change overnight. OZL might very well hit $4 again, but believe me - this might not happen for years. Just because it's fallen so incredibly fast, doesn't mean it'll rise that quick as well.

I am completely convinced that we'll see many mine closures in the coming months - amongst specs, and even mid tiers - as many companies simply do not hold high quality, high-grade reserves. It was easy enough to dig up anything and everything when the profit margins were as high as they were, but now that they're so very slim - how much lower can companies afford them to fall?


... I'm not allowed to give advice, but please - just use some common sense guys. I don't think it's undervalued, at all - and if there's a deep, and painful global recession ... well, just might be overpriced at the moment :

 

[Fung]

Does anybody thinks that we are losing the opportunity costs when we still holding OZL today? Yes OZL may worth $4 before but what about today? It's a period stock rather than Growth stock

 

[stargazer]

Hi all

Unchartered waters for me so have a question.

What happens to the sp if you own shares of a company and the mine is closed to be reopened can the shares still be traded, does it go into a halt, etc.

Cheers
SG

 

[sammy84]

I think we are going a little too hard on oz minerals. Currently the market is nonsensical and irrational. Once the dust settles I think the we will realise that the world is still turning and that the demand for commodities is still present (China > 8%, India > 7% growth!) . Admittedly the price for commodities wont be what they were previously, but the current prices aren't a good indicator either.

We must also remember the war chest of money that oz has at its disposal from zinifex. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few months we see some major acquisitions happening.

Finally re opposition cost: Until shorting is re-introduced there isn't alot of opportunity to make money in this market, so I think you could do worse that park your money in OZ.

Sammy

 

[oldblue]

Hi all

Unchartered waters for me so have a question.

What happens to the sp if you own shares of a company and the mine is closed to be reopened can the shares still be traded, does it go into a halt, etc.

Cheers
SG

The closure of a mine doesn't necessarily have any effect on the listing/trading of the company's shares.
Of course, it is likely to have an adverse effect on the SP, especially if the mine is a substantial, or the entire, part of a company's business. This is clearly not the case with OZL who have good diversification across several minerals, gold, copper, zinc, minor amount of nickel, with Prominent Hill due to come into production shortly. Most of these minerals are beaten down in price at present but OZL has substantial cash on hand and better long term prospects than most, IMO.

 

[dj_420]

.
Finally re opposition cost: Until shorting is re-introduced there isn't alot of opportunity to make money in this market, so I think you could do worse that park your money in OZ.

Sammy

OZL is still on a much higher PE than even the major miners, OZL is betwen 15-20 PE depending on who you read based on current earnings, BHP is around 7 and RIO is just over 5.

I think RIO and BHP presents a much better value for money. Even with earnings forecast that still would only bring it in line with majors on a forward PE on 2009.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

The reality is pretty clear:

OZL extract zinc at a cost close to $0.50c and the price of Zinc is now $0.45, so why do you want to keep extracting if you are losing money for each pound?

Look at copper, Freeport is extracting copper at $1.29 in some mines but in others at $1.96, the price today is $1.90 so why do you want to keep digging at those prices, just close and work on the profitable ones.

I won ´t put any money on any miner right now.

WBII

 

[electronicmaster]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But it seems (to me) that most people are buying OZL and selling ASAP to make quick profits. I take it thats it's typical for a low priced instrument (penny stock)?

I myself have 1000 shares @ $0.970 since 22/10/08. It's my very first trade (or possibly investment). I really would love to hold on to them just to experence all the emotional pulls on the ups, downs and east days. And dividends (I suspect will be low or so for a year).

I don't mind, since it cost me under $990.00 (including the buy commission + GST).

In the mean time I'm researching good investment possibilities like CCL. And perhaps learn to trade the index

 

[skyQuake]

The reality is pretty clear:

OZL extract zinc at a cost close to $0.50c and the price of Zinc is now $0.45, so why do you want to keep extracting if you are losing money for each pound?

Look at copper, Freeport is extracting copper at $1.29 in some mines but in others at $1.96, the price today is $1.90 so why do you want to keep digging at those prices, just close and work on the profitable ones.

I won ´t put any money on any miner right now.

WBII

Agree entirely. Most junior miners are pretty much call options on the metal itself. Extracting copper at $1.50, while copper is at $1.90 is fine, but a 10% fall in the price of copper results in a whopping 47.5% fall in profits. As prices get closer, leverage increases. Just be aware that commodity prices are linearly correlated with the miners.

 

[electronicmaster]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But it seems (to me) that most people are buying OZL and selling ASAP to make quick profits. I take it thats it's typical for a low priced instrument (penny stock)?

I myself have 1000 shares @ $0.970 since 22/10/08. It's my very first trade (or possibly investment). I really would love to hold on to them just to experence all the emotional pulls on the ups, downs and east days. And dividends (I suspect will be low or so for a year).

I don't mind, since it cost me under $990.00 (including the buy commission + GST).

In the mean time I'm researching good investment possibilities like CCL. And perhaps learn to trade the index

Well I could not hold on to OZL after all. I saw an Elliot wave when I went long. And the price did go up (Nearly a profit of $190.00 in two days). Then later it went down to $0.87. That freaked me out.

Sold 1000 @ $0.87
(Draw down) $100.00 + $40.00 (inc GST) commissions = - $140.00

It was meant to be an investment. So I'm not emotionally ready for Investing (I'm a noob at this). Not to happy about that.

Still slowly building capital while researching for quality Instruments. And learning E-minis at no cost (As much free material I can get my hands on I mean).

 

[amazme]

Well I could not hold on to OZL after all. I saw an Elliot wave when I went long. And the price did go up (Nearly a profit of $190.00 in two days). Then later it went down to $0.87. That freaked me out.

Sold 1000 @ $0.87
(Draw down) $100.00 + $40.00 (inc GST) commissions = - $140.00

It was meant to be an investment. So I'm not emotionally ready for Investing (I'm a noob at this). Not to happy about that.

Still slowly building capital while researching for quality Instruments. And learning E-minis at no cost (As much free material I can get my hands on I mean).

Welcome to the stockmarket.

Tho i cannot understand why you panicked and sold at 0.87. In a time of enormous volatility and jitters this trend will continue. Anyway its a learning game...
If you still held today you may pretty much be square at present

 

[electronicmaster]

Welcome to the stockmarket.

Tho i cannot understand why you panicked and sold at 0.87. In a time of enormous volatility and jitters this trend will continue. Anyway its a learning game...
If you still held today you may pretty much be square at present

Yes true.

I was thinking that today too.

pain, PAIN :

But it is all cool. I'm still making cash.

I will remember your tip next time I try to invest in OZL shares.

 

[johenmo]

I will remember your tip next time I try to invest in OZL shares.

Don't be in a hurry!

Disc: I have 450 of them. (Stuffed in some bottom drawer with lots of used tissues........... LOL)

 

[jackson8]

Yes true.

I was thinking that today too.

pain, PAIN :

But it is all cool. I'm still making cash.

I will remember your tip next time I try to invest in OZL shares.

if you are thinking of buying into again and are looking at the long term you can cushion some fall in price and maybe earn a little on the side by writing options over them especially just now while volatility is quite high

you would probably want more than $1000 worth but it is a way of produceing a return from your shares even during a flat period and hopefully benefiting from any upward movement in the future

 

[Reealjrd]

The stock market is recovering worldwide. The downfall which we saw was for balancing the finance of the government. Which is being used for elections and all other matters.

 

[Ashsaege]

The stock market is recovering worldwide. The downfall which we saw was for balancing the finance of the government. Which is being used for elections and all other matters.

Please explain a bit more. So trillions of $s were lost on the stock market because of Obama and McCain?

I prefer papa giuseppe over McCain pizzas

 

[LeeTV]

Don't be in a hurry!

Disc: I have 450 of them. (Stuffed in some bottom drawer with lots of used tissues........... LOL)

Small to medium movements should be nothing to worry about in these volitile times. These are in my long term draw.
(Disc: I hold 6067 of them, also in amongst tissues)