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OOO - Betashares Crude Oil Index ETF - Currency Hedged (Synthetic)

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Ooooo, ouch.

frugal.rock said:
Oh no, US weekly production for the week of 19/6/2020, apparently production went UP...! by 500
to 11,000 (x 10,000)
I think the figures are getting fudged!
That just makes the "going short" conviction even stronger, in my opinion.
The previous panic was a case of "much ado about nothing".
It's getting very real, storages are chockers. POO down overnight.
Who's ready to take delivery of oil and get paid for it.... again? :eek::2twocents
Click to expand...
 
G'day gents, long time reader but first time poster. I've got significant exposure to the oil futures market via OOO and oil equities via FUEL, having made a play in the medium-long term based on the oil price being as low as it is.

Thought i'd share some significant research i've stumbled across by Goehring & Rozencwajg who run a commodities fund. A significant read but basically they see a shortfall in supply by the start of 2021. At $40 a barrel and significant upside, they make some significant points worth considering.

Cheers

DMD
 

Attachments

  • 2020.02 Goehring & Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf
    729.9 KB · Views: 86
will take a while for people to forget what happened, will never invest in OOO for more than a day now
But many have short memories and new entrants will be tomorrow's suckers
 
qldfrog said:
will take a while for people to forget what happened, will never invest in OOO for more than a day now
But many have short memories and new entrants will be tomorrow's suckers
Click to expand...
I hold a small position in it but in doing so I'm consciously trading "OOO" as though it were just another random stock, I'm not thinking of it in terms of trading "crude oil" and using it as a means to effect that trade given the risk of a disconnect between the two. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
I hold a small position in it but in doing so I'm consciously trading "OOO" as though it were just another random stock, I'm not thinking of it in terms of trading "crude oil" and using it as a means to effect that trade given the risk of a disconnect between the two. :2twocents
Click to expand...
and disconnect is a weak word whenyou remember what happened :)
 
Announcement just released.


Next 3 months will see distributions paid on the "substantial gains"

The Fund provides investment exposure to the performance of WTI crude oil futures, aiming to track the performance of the
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return hedged into Australian dollars, before fees and expenses. The prices of WTI
crude oil futures have increased significantly over the course of the financial year to date. As a result, as at the date of this
announcement the Fund has realised substantial gains, which would be required to be distributed by the 30 June 2021
financial year end. The Fund therefore intends to make monthly distributions for the remainder of the financial year - as at
the end of April, May and June 2021.

For each monthly distribution, the responsible entity will separately announce the estimated distribution amount (on a
dollar per-unit basis), prior to the ex-distribution date, followed by the final or confirmed distribution amount.
Announcements regarding the Fund are made via the ASX Market Announcements Platform, and are also accessible at
the Fund’s webpage at www.betashares.com.au/fund/oil-etf-betashares/#announcements.

Importantly, the amount of any monthly distribution may vary significantly (up or down) from any other monthly distribution
due to various factors, including material changes in the number of units on issue and in the prices of WTI crude oil futures
contracts to which the Fund has exposure, and should not be used as an indication of the amount of any subsequent
distribution.
Click to expand...


Last report is the half year to December 2020 income as

ooodecfy2020.png



Will be interesting to see what the April distribution announcement is.

Link to the announcements below

Crude Oil Index ETF - Currency Hedged (Synthetic)

Betashares Crude Oil ETF - provides investors with a simple way to take a view on oil prices. Access in a single trade, diversify your portfolio.
www.betashares.com.au www.betashares.com.au
 
Just a heads up that today is the last day to buy to get the April lucky door prize.
Record date is Tuesday 4th May.
There will be a May and June payment also apparently.

Trying to get my head around things. Bear with me.

So theres a after management costs profit of $39,345,000 for half year up to end of Dec 2020 and no dividend was paid thus far.
Around 41,096,759 units outstanding.
41096759/39345000= $0.957 per share using this method.
Spread over 3 months is around $0.32 per share for 3 months, not including March quarter (unsure if anything will be included from this quarter?)

Still waiting for end of March quarter 2021results, but the dividend payments intention announcement has been released before March quarter results released. No figures given yet.

Is the above scenario a fair guestimation or am I getting it all wrong?
Can anyone who understands the whole WTI futures contracts thing in relation to OOO making profit, have a stab at a likely outcome for the March quarter based off WTI contracts prices?

Cheers.
 
@frugal.rock amount for April is $0.34141467. If it works out to be around $1 in total those that bought at or near the bottom with very happy. Will be interesting to see if this moves the price beyond the normal fluctuations directly related to crude oil futures.

oooditrapr2021.png



Crude Oil Index ETF - Currency Hedged (Synthetic)

Betashares Crude Oil ETF - provides investors with a simple way to take a view on oil prices. Access in a single trade, diversify your portfolio.
www.betashares.com.au www.betashares.com.au
 
Any ideas about who the "registrar" is? Computershare?
Not sure where that info is usually found. Haven't happened across it. Cheers.
 
wabullfrog said:
@frugal.rock Link Market Services is where mine are.
Click to expand...
Thanks bullfrog.

Need to enter BETA as the issuer though, not OOO.
Took a phone call to work that out...

Heads up, again.
Tomorrow (Friday) last day for purchasing to receive the May distribution.

I note Deloitte (2nd hand info) has oil tipped to reach $80 by year's end.
Sounds about right, IMO.

Any thoughts @Smurf1976 ? being the resident black gold expert!:xyxthumbs
 
Last purchase to get May divvy.
Oil up overnight, will expect OOO SP to head up a bit today.
Last reported US crude inventories were down on expectations. (Bullish sign)

Screenshot_20210528-095726.png


Screenshot_20210528-095608.png
 
My apologies.

TODAY is actually the last day to purchase to receive the May distribution.
Anticipated to be similar to April's figure of around $0.34.... which represents another payment of over 5% of current share price.

I anticipate June to be similar, however, let's remember that these payments are only referencing July through December 2020 profits.

I am wondering if perhaps the June payment may include any Jan-Mar 2021 profits if any, and in fact may poyentially be a bigger one. Probably wishful thonking and is speculation only.

I am still hoping someone who has an understanding of futures contracts might assist with potential profits for the first 3 or 6 months of this year.
Anyone?
 
Not holding my breath that OOO won't dump down again like it did after the April dividend record date, but it hasn't so far today.

Gives me some hope of a longer term SP recovery to at least similar prepandemic prices.

I have speculated that at some stage the inelasticity of bringing back supply will be dominated by demand leading to a slow surge in oil prices. More research needed.
Theres pro' and cons for the argument, but I expect the oil industry will have at least a few more hurrahs over the years before succumbing to the inevitable EV market.
I envisage that at some stage the POO (price of oil) will have to get rather high to push markets to transition over to EV's in combination with regulatory pressures.

10 year chart showing there's still plenty of overhead space to recover to near prepandemic levels

Screenshot_20210601-121625.png


3 month chart.
The blip from dividend scalpers at the end of April disappears into the noise of general price volatility. (Seen around 3 May)

Screenshot_20210601-121742.png
 
wabullfrog said:
Crude WTI has just risen to above $68 for the first time in a while.
Click to expand...
Have also been keeping a keen eye on prices. Despite high prices at the bowser, I am willing it higher.... a bread and butter trade thus far.

There was a small quick spike down (see chart) seen on 3 minute bars, any longer time frame shows it as a bullish/ green bar, so it was a quickie only by a select few.
From herein, a sell down will probably coincide with a pullback on the POO.... IMO only.

Screenshot_20210601-220936.png

Screenshot_20210601-220341.png


POO currently up over the last 24 hours (WTI) 3.5% at $68.67 and still climbing sharply (for oil anyway). Currently wondering about immediate causation?

Hoping gains will hold overnight, and then some.

Might be a spike up in anticipation of Iran export sanctions possibly being lifted as part of new uranium deal negotiations, that would bring prices back somewhat.
A wait and see job on how much clout OPEC has I think.
 

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